Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022
Wimbledon: Outright Winner picks at 33/1 and 250/1…
Sunday 26th June 2022
Good evening. As promised, we’re kicking off our Wimbledon betting a day early. In tonight’s email, we’re getting our initial tournament bets in the book…
My Ones to Watch mantra for Outright Winner picks remains the same as ever: we go after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. And at the big odds we go for, it only takes one to make things a success…
I really enjoyed last week’s tennis. We did some great groundwork, getting our Wimbledon and grass-court prep done. You can catch up on the research in the two articles linked to below, on the website:
WIMBLEDON Prep – Part I: The case for the outsiders >>
WIMBLEDON Prep – Part II: Grass Court Form Guide >>
Last week was a good one for our bets – and very nearly a great one. We bagged a 10/1 match acca in the final round of the Wimbledon Women’s Qualifiers. And our 40/1 shot Maxime Cressy finished runner-up at ATP Eastbourne, for a 1/2 odds Each Way payout. Cressy was just pipped to the title by our friend Taylor Fritz, 7-6 in a final-set tiebreak. Elsewhere, we also hit four out of five in another match acca, with the one that got away a close call – Magda Linette served for the match to land what would’ve been a 30/1 payday.
It's all good, though. We hit a nice bit of form on the grass last week. And that’s excellent timing, seeing as the biggest grass event of them all starts tomorrow…
Wimbledon 2022 – Women’s Outright Winner picks…
First things first, we’ve already got two women in the book for Wimbledon this year. On 22nd April, ONS JABEUR went on the early-bird bet list at 40/1 and 33/1 Each Way. The new world no.2, the 27-year-old Tunisian is now 9/1 for the title, second favourite behind world no.1 Iga Swiatek who is just 6/4 (2.5) in general. Jabeur pulled out of the Doubles in Eastbourne last week, citing a knee injury. Let’s hope that was just a precautionary move in order to save her best efforts for SW19.
On 17th June, we added DAYANA YASTREMSKA as a 100/1 outsider for both Wimbledon, and this summer’s upcoming US Open. The 22-year-old Ukrainian, a Ones to Watch regular since before the pandemic, is currently ranked no.74, but has been as high as no.21 in the past. If she stays fit and on the right track, I reckon Dayana definitely has the credentials and will-power to be a Top 10 name – and a Grand Slam contender. Yastremska is played three won three against Top 20 opponents this season, which can only be a good thing heading into a Grand Slam. Unlike our Jabeur bet, the odds have drifted with this one. As I write, Yastremska is as big as 500/1 with Skybet, Betfred, and Sporting Index Fixed Odds. 400/1 with Bet365, and 375/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. A true rank outsider in the betting, then. But as I always say – stranger things have happened…
ANGELIQUE KERBER was a 100/1+ pick for us at the French Open last month. I made the case for the veteran there, and while Angie only reached the 3rd round in Paris, she still has the look of a player with one or two more big Grand Slam runs left in her. The 34-year-old German, a former world no.1 and the current no.19, holds a mighty impressive 85-31 career match win-loss record on grass. That 73% strike-rate puts Kerber in the 70%+ bracket that we discussed when looking at the Top 16 Seeds last week. The German has certainly delivered at Wimbledon in the past: semi final last season, winner in 2018, and runner-up in 2016. She’s made the second week (Last 16) in six of her last nine visits to SW19, a record that also includes the quarter finals back in 2014, and a first semi final showing back in 2012.
Placed in the 3rd Quarter of the draw where our tournament pick Jabeur is the 7/4 (2.75) favourite to win the quarter and reach the semi finals. The bookies make Kerber 5/1 second fav in Quarter 3. With Jabeur already on our side for the title, I’m going after more big prices, and adding the experienced Kerber to the Outright Winner book, with top prices of 33/1 on offer as I write this evening, and 28/1 and 25/1 elsewhere.
Madison Keys has pulled out injured. The American was in this section of the draw. Other names here include Emma Raducanu at 40/1. But is she fit? Emma’s price has drifted recently; she was 14/1 at the start of the month. The 19-year-old will be in action on Centre Court on day one on Monday afternoon. I’ll get a good look at her then, as I was lucky enough to land Centre Court tickets in this year’s Wimbledon ballot.
Two more of our Ones to Watch in 2022 teenagers are in this 3rd Quarter of the women’s draw, and at 100/1+ prices in the Outright Winner market. Marta Kostyuk remains hit-and-miss; the 19-year-old Ukrainian is dangerous against anyone on her day, but is still hard to trust to deliver consistently. Another 19-year-old, CLARA TAUSON is one I’m prepared to take a flyer on at big odds. One of seven teenagers in the women’s draw, the Danish youngster hasn’t been seen on the tour since losing to Kostyuk in the 1st round in Madrid on clay in April. I can’t claim to have any special knowledge of Clara’s state of fitness right now. But what I do know is, this girl can really play. I have Tauson down as one of the next big breakthrough stars of the women’s game. Huge odds of 200/1 are more than enough for me to back Clara as a teenage outsider to follow here.
This bottom half of the draw – Quarters 3 and 4 – avoids the top seed and clear tournament favourite, Iga Swiatek. Quarter 4 is topped & tailed by 5th seed Maria Sakkari (5/1 for Quarter 4, 28/1 for the title), and 2nd seed Anett Kontaveit (10/1 to win Q4, 50/1 – 80/1 for the trophy). Sandwiched in-between, Jelena Ostapenko is the Quarter 4 favourite at 7/2 (4.5), and 20/1 Outright. With Belinda Bencic also a seeded player of note, at 9/2 (5.5) for Q4, and 25/1 at best to win a maiden Grand Slam title here at SW19. Bencic was Wimbledon Junior champion back in 2013. Ostapenko won the Girls’ title in 2014. Swiatek took that Junior crown in 2018.
Summer 2022 breakout name Beatriz Haddad Maia is also in this section of the field. The 26-year-old Brazilian is certainly a form horse on grass right now, with a 12-1 match win-loss record on the turf this June. That run includes back-to-back WTA titles in England, at Nottingham and Birmingham, and then a semi final at Eastbourne. Up to a new career high of no.28 in the world, Haddad Maia is around 4/1 to win Quarter 4, and 20/1 in general to win Wimbledon. The thing is, she was 200/1 a couple of weeks ago, and I can’t bring myself to take such a reduced price. It’s a similar story for Petra Kvitova in the top half of the draw. The two-time SW19 winner was 33/1 a week ago. Since winning WTA Eastbourne in impressive style last week – beating Ostapenko in straight sets in the final – Kvitova’s Wimbledon 2022 price has tumbled to 14/1.
On the other side of the fence, Serena Williams was 6/1 when lining up for Wimbledon last summer. The 40-year-old superstar hasn’t played a Singles match on tour since losing here in the 1st round last June. Serena goes off at 20/1 this time. You can never rule a true champion out. But Williams is that price for a reason. It would be a remarkable feat of fitness and desire if she was able to lift Wimbledon trophy number eight here.
We can’t back them all. And this is where price becomes a key factor for me. Especially with the recent trend of big-odds finalists and underdogs springing surprises in the women’s game (as discussed in my recent analysis here)…
In that 4th Quarter of the draw, one dark horse that I’d highlight in the Outright betting is ANHELINA KALININA at 250/1 and 200/1. The 25-year-old Ukrainian is up to a new career high of no.33 in the world, earning a 29th-seed place here at Wimbledon, on the back of a quietly menacing season that has seen her show a taste for taking out big names…
Victories over the likes of Garbine Muguruza, Raducanu, Sloane Stephens – all Grand Slam winners. As well as beating Keys twice this year – with the American also a former Major finalist. Kalinina is also one of just six players to manage to take a set off Swiatek during the no.1’s current 35-match unbeaten run. Kerber and Tauson are also on that ‘won a set v Swiatek’ list.
Anhelina made the quarter finals on grass at Eastbourne last week, beating Top 5 name Sakkari along the way. A dangerous floater in this bottom half of the draw, I like Kalinina at massive prices right now. You might want to take the 20/1+ widely available for the underdog to win Quarter 4. I prefer to deal in the triple-figure odds here – Outright Winner, and to Reach the Final (see below).
Wimbledon 2022 – Men’s Outright Winner picks…
Recent men’s Grand Slams have been less wide-open than the women’s Majors. But as discussed in last week’s analysis, the long-standing Big Four of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic & Andy Murray haven’t had a full stranglehold on the finals for some time now. Just four of the last 23 men’s Grand Slam finals have been all-Big Four affairs – and just one of the last five at Wimbledon.
With no Federer here (injured). And the current world no.1 Daniil Medvedev (banned) and no.2 Alexander Zverev (injured) also missing. The Wimbledon 2022 Men’s Outright Winner market is definitely worth a play or two from the outsider point of view…
In terms of the best-of-the-rest outside of the big-name favourites Djokovic (odds-on at 5/6), and Rafael Nadal (7/1). Last year’s beaten finalist Matteo Berrettini is just 6/1. And the semi-finalist that we backed as 100/1+ long-shot here twelve months ago, Hubert Hurkacz, is this time just 14/1 for the title. From the men we namechecked when looking at the Top 16 Seeds and their grass form last week, that leaves 2017 Wimbledon runner-up Marin Cilic (28/1 Bet365, 25/1 general), and 2021 quarter-finalist, Felix Auger-Aliassime (16/1).
The 33-year-old Cilic and 21-year-old Auger-Aliassime are both in the bottom half of the draw, avoiding Djokovic until the final, and Berrettini until the semis. Auger-Aliassime starts with a tricky 1st round match against our serve & volley pal from last week, Maxime Cressy. Cilic could face Nadal in the Last 16.
Elsewhere in the bottom half of the field, the unseeded Nick Kyrgios will have plenty of backers at 28/1 (with Boylesports going an industry-best 33/1). The old questions remain about the talented but temperamental 27-year-old – can Nick really hold it together, physically and mentally, over the two-week, seven-match slog of a Grand Slam? If he’s ever going to do it, on grass at Wimbledon would be the most likely setting.
With the men’s market unlikely to change much in the first few days – barring any colossal shocks in the 1st round. I’m biding my time with the likes of Cilic, Felix, and Kyrgios.
Two men’s outside chances that I do want to get in the book from day one:
STEFANOS TSITSIPAS at 25/1. Things change fast in tennis, and over the course of the last fortnight, the 23-year-old Greek has gone from a negative career match-win loss record on grass, to a positive (20-17). With the world no.6 bagging a first ATP title on grass, lifting the trophy in Mallorca last week.
Stef has been banging on the door for a while now at the Majors: Australian Open semi finals (2022, 2021, 2019). French Open final (2021), semi final (2020). With grass now in his wheelhouse, too, and with a Major monkey to get off his back, Tsitsipas at 25/1+ is one that catches my eye in this men’s field.
And for a really big price, 125/1, 100/1 or 80/1 does me very well for our mate TAYLOR FRITZ. Winning ATP Eastbourne last week at 14/1, after flopping when we backed him at 10/1 at ‘s-Hertogenbosch in his first grass event of the season (and playing with a bit of an injury when falling at the first hurdle at Queen’s). Taylor owes us nothing after his glorious 100/1 title run at Indian Wells in March. At massive odds again here, Fritz is going in the book. If his fitness holds up, then the American looks primed to build on his gradual Wimbledon improvement of 1st round in 2016, 2nd round in 2018, and 3rd round in 2021. This year’s Indian Wells and Eastbourne wins have boosted his confidence, too.
We’ll likely add others to the book in the days ahead. But on the eve of day one, these are my Outright Winner picks for Wimbledon 2022…
----------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Already in the book: Ons Jabeur, Dayana Yastremska
Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
----------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 1 email.
If you need to get in touch during the tournament, I’m at:
tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
During Monday daytime I’ll be away from my desk (at Wimbledon!). But apart from that, I will endeavour to reply promptly throughout the event.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson