Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022
Wimbledon: Day 4 – Paula the outsider at 66/1…
Thursday 30th June 2022
Good morning. Welcome to Day 4 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service. Play starts from 11am…
C’mon Tom…
I’m starting today’s piece with a few words of encouragement.
This was the first thing I thought of when the alarm clock went off this morning, so it must be on my mind. I’ll be preaching to the converted here if you’re a long-term Ones to Watch member. But I know that there are plenty of new faces on the service this week for Wimbledon – if that is you, then hello and welcome…
The phrase ‘baptism of fire’ might be a bit strong, but if you’ve just joined and are thinking, Tom, when are you going to send me some winners. Then my answer is the same as I always say. I am nothing if not consistent on that front. Here at Ones to Watch, at the big prices we play at, we have more losing bets than winners. You might not hear many betting writers say that, but one thing I pride myself on is honesty.
The tide will turn. We’re only three days into Wimbledon. The big picture is always where it’s at. So, as one member encouraged me a few years back: you just have to keep the faith. It’s all worth it when the big odds come in – there’s no better feeling in sport than being on the right side of a massive result.
While yesterday’s three women’s outsider match picks drew a blank, we had four out of six winning legs from the match acca the day before. Indeed, it was only last week that we were celebrating a 10/1 five-fold, along with a 1/2 odds payout from a 40/1 Outright Winner pick. That’s no use to me Tom, I’ve only just joined. I know, I know. Stay the course. Stay the summer, and the rest of the season, if you can. The next big win is only ever just around the corner. And I’d challenge you to find anyone in the game working harder to find it…
C’mon Tim…
Tim Van Rijthoven was a bright spark for us yesterday. He beat the very tricky 6’11” Reilly Opelka by three sets to one, showing the greater composure in the big moments. And with three tiebreaks in the match, there were plenty of pressure points. Tim won 6-4, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6.
The emergent Dutchman continues to impress on his first main draw appearance at a Grand Slam. Age 25, one might ask, where has Tim been all these years? You never know when a player is going to click. This summer, Tim is certainly finding his feet on the tour. After winning a debut ATP title earlier this month, the world no.104 is now played 8 won 7 on grass this season.
After two rounds at Wimbledon, the 6’2” Dutchman’s 1st Serve Points Won stat stands at 90%. If he can keep that up against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the next round, Van Rijthoven will give himself a great chance to earn a match on Centre Court against Djokovic this weekend.
As well as yesterday’s match bet to beat Opelka. We got Tim in the men’s Outright Winner book at best prices of 150/1, 125/1 and 100/1, Each Way. After yesterday’s win, Van Ritjhoven is through to the 3rd round. And now trading at 80/1 in general. As I write this morning, Betfred are standing alone with 100/1 on offer.
Our Outright book…
In the Outright Winner markets, we go after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…
100/1 shot Tim Van Rijthoven is in the top half of the draw. On the opposite side of the sheet, in that promising looking bottom section of the field, our two other men’s dark horses play in the 2nd round today…
Taylor Fritz went in the book on Sunday night at top prices of 125/1, 100/1 and 80/1. The way his part of the draw is now looking, 11th seed Taylor has the chance to get to the quarter finals without having to face another seeded player. The bookies now make him 40/1 and 33/1 to become the first American man to win a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick at the US Open in 2003.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is on our side at 30/1, 28/1 or 25/1. The Greek world no.5 – seeded 4th here at Wimbledon – is now 14/1 and 12/1 for the title.
In the women’s event, we have these two selections through to the 3rd round:
Ons Jabeur was our early-bird pick from back in April, at 40/1 and 33/1. She’s now 5/1.
Angelique Kerber went in the book on Sunday night at 33/1, 30/1, 28/1 or 25/1. Angie is now 25/1 at best (Betfred), and 22/1 in general.
Jabeur and Kerber are both in the bottom half of the draw. World no.1 Swiatek is in the top half.
Paula the outsider at 66/1…
Today sees the conclusion of the 2nd round, with the top half of the women’s draw in action, and the bottom half of the men’s…
In the women’s, there’s one name I want to add to our pack of Outright outsiders today. We’re not on anyone in the top half of the draw yet…
Swiatek is in Quarter 1. The ominous presence of the top seed, who is on a 36-match winning streak, makes it hard to back the likes of Bianca Andreescu (33/1 at best) or Elena Rybakina (80/1, plays Andreescu today). The winner of that could play the promising 19-year-old, Qinwen Zheng (80/1 in general, with a bit of 100/1 around). If the seedings go to form – hardly a given in women’s Grand Slams these days – then Jessica Pegula will be waiting in the Last 16. The American is also an 80/1 shot right now. If any of those get through to the quarter final, they will potentially have to face Swiatek, still requiring three wins in order to land the outright odds.
In Quarter 2, where you can’t face the dominant Pole until the semis. One player I fancy as an underdog with the chance of a surprise run at a big price is PAULA BADOSA. It seems no-one is talking about the Spaniard, who is ranked no.4. The lazy or uninformed comment would be to dismiss her as a clay-courter, with her 150 wins on the dirt making that her most winningest surface. However, Paula won the prestigious Indian Wells title on hard courts at big prices last year (40/1), showing a taste for the big occasion. On grass, as a Junior, she made the quarter finals here at Wimbledon. In the main event at SW19 last season, Badosa reached week two, with a credible run to the Last 16.
In the 24-year-old’s quarter of the draw, names like Petra Kvitova and Coco Gauff will have many more backers. Those two are 14/1 apiece at best, and more like 12/1 in general. Badosa at 66/1 catches my eye, with Unibet going 80/1 as I write. We’re always on the lookout for a quality player at a bigger-than-usual price. If she stays injury-free and dialled-in, Paula can build on her thumping 2-0 win in the 1st round. She’s going in the outsider bet-book this morning.
Potential five-setters…
There are 16 matches on the men’s schedule today, and I rate three of them as particularly good contenders to go all the way to five sets. All of the players involved have a bit of previous for getting into long matches. And with strong serving, and the occasion, all set to play a big part today, we could see some five-set epics unfolding on Day 4…
Using Bet365’s prices for the Total Sets, 5 Sets in the match is 5/2 (3.5) for Ruusuvuori v Van De Zandschulp, and also 5/2 for Cressy v Sock. With Sonego v Gaston a 3/1 (4.0) shot to go to five.
I’m going the most aggressive way I can, and backing the players I fancy to win the match, taking the 3-2 Set Betting scores in order to obtain the best price about a win-and-five-sets. Three singles at around 6/1 or 5/1 each. And then splitting one additional stake four ways across a Trixie, which is comprised of three doubles and a massive-odds treble.
Of course, as ever, you may wish to play these matches your own way, too.
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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Men’s matches – Set Betting:
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I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 5 email.
You can get in touch with me during the tournament by emailing me at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson