Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 12: Women's Semi Finals...
Thursday 8th June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 2pm.
Favourites v Outsiders…
The women’s semi finals take place this afternoon. And it’s a classic case of the top-ranked players against the underdogs…
Karolina Muchova v Aryna Sabalenka:
Rankings: #43 v #2
Head-to-Head: 0 v 1 (2019)
Pre-tournament trophy price: 100/1 (101.0) v 6/1 (7.0)
Today’s match odds: 5/2 (3.5) v 3/10 (1.3)
Iga Swiatek v Beatriz Haddad Maia:
Rankings: #1 v #14
Head-to-Head: 0 v 1 (2022)
Pre-tournament trophy price: 5/6 (1.83) v 100/1 (101.0)
Today’s match odds: 1/16 (1.06) v 9/1 (10.0)
A Wimbledon reminder…
Considering there are two 100/1 shots in the French Open semi finals, you can see why I was keen to back a few big-price outsiders during the tournament. Indeed, Karolina Muchova took out my 40/1 day-one selection Maria Sakkari in the 1st round, and proceeded to mow her way through the draw, all the way to the semis…
While we’re not on the big odds for the Czech player this time. We do however have Muchova in the book as our sole early-bird women’s pick for Wimbledon this summer…
Back on 23rd February, I flagged up Karolina’s SW19 potential. With the 26-year-old going in the book for Wimbledon at top prices of 80/1, 66/1, and 50/1 Each Way.
At that stage, the two-time Wimbledon quarter-finalist was ranked down at no.112 in the world, owing to injuries - a position that wouldn’t even have guaranteed her an automatic place on the All England Club entry list. All that has changed now, though…
Muchova is currently ranked no.43, and set to go higher after this Roland Garros run. She could even end up seeded for next month’s grass-court ‘Slam, depending on how things pan out from here.
If you didn’t get on Muchova back in February, here are her current prices for Wimbledon (Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places):
40/1 10Bet & LiveScoreBet
33/1 William Hill
30/1 Unibet & BetUK
28/1 Bet365
25/1 BetVictor
20/1 Skybet, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Serving stats…
Going back to today’s action in Paris. Upsets hunters can point to Haddad Maia winning her one previous clash with Swiatek (on hard courts in Toronto last season). The score that day was 2-1 to the Brazilian outsider. A Set Betting result that Beatriz has repeated three times in a row here at the French Open 2023, coming from behind to win in each of the last three rounds.
If we are to see a shock in either of today’s semi finals, I’d say the three-set route would most likely be required. But to be honest, it’s a stretch for me to suggest with any strong conviction that Swiatek and/ or Sabalenka could be sent packing this afternoon.
I’m instead looking to do some low-key business beyond the standard match-winner markets. With the serving stats highlighting a couple of off-the-radar opportunities for us to snaffle up some decent odds…
My reading of those numbers is that we could see some low tallies for the Total Aces today.
For example, Unibet, Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook all go Under 4.5 Aces for Muchova v Sabalenka, a bet that would have paid out in all five of Muchova’s matches this fortnight.
And the slow balls used on these Paris clay courts can play their part, too. At the last Grand Slam, the Australian Open in January, Sabalenka averaged 6.6 aces per match. Here at Roland Garros, she’s averaging just 2.4.
While there’s the potential for nerves to impact on the double faults today. I’d be surprised to see the aces go high in either of this afternoon’s women’s semi finals…
And along with taking the ‘Under’ Total Aces bet where you can get it. A low score of potentially just a couple of aces could see the ‘Tie’ payout for bigger odds, too.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Muchova v Sabalenka:
Match Total Aces: Under 4.5 Aces @ 6/5 (2.2) Unibet, Evens (2.0) Bet365, 8/11 (1.73) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Most Aces: Tie @ 9/2 (5.5) Bet365
Swiatek v Haddad Maia:
Match Total Aces: Under 3.5 Aces @ 17/20 (1.85) Unibet, 4/5 (1.8) Bet365
Most Aces: Tie @ 10/3 (4.33) Bet365
----------------------------------------------------------------
Play starts from 2pm, with Muchova v Sabalenka followed by Swiatek v Haddad Maia.
You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 13 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone