Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 15: Men's Final...
Sunday 11th June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 15 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service.
The Men’s Final is scheduled for ‘not before 1.30pm’ - with Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud due on court after the Women’s Doubles Final.
Bring on Wimbledon…
Did you watch the Women’s Final yesterday? The outsider almost did it. Karolina Muchova had gone off at 100/1 at the start of the tournament, and 6/1 in the championship match. In the end, world no.1 Iga Swiatek just about held her game together to get over the line, 6-2, 5-7, 6-4. Muchova twice led by a break in the final set, but couldn’t quite pull away from the defending champ.
Karolina is getting closer to fulfilling her Grand Slam dream…
In 2019, Muchova reached her first Major quarter final, going down 2-0 to Elina Svitolina at Wimbledon
In 2021, the talented Czech reached the semi finals at the Australian Open, beaten 2-1 by Jennifer Brady
And now, in 2023 at the French Open, the 26-year-old has made her debut in a Grand Slam final, finishing runner-up
If you were watching Eurosport yesterday, then you’ll have heard both Chris Evert and Mats Wilander - former Grand Slam champions turned TV pundits and commentators - exclaim that they were surprised to see Muchova’s first Major final come on clay. Both stating that they’re excited to see what Karolina can do on grass at Wimbledon next month…
That reminded me of Ashleigh Barty’s career arc. The now-retired Australian said herself that she didn’t expect her first Grand Slam title to come at Roland Garros (won 2019). Ash then displayed her full array of skills to win Wimbledon in 2021, ten years after she’d won the Girls’ title at SW19. Before collecting her home ‘Slam in Australia, and stepping away from the sport, job done and tennis goals achieved. Ash is now married and expecting her first child.
Men’s Final - Djokovic v Ruud…
AKA: The Big 3 v The Next Gen…
Talking of career arcs - will today be the day that Casper Ruud wins his first Grand Slam title?
The 24-year-old Norwegian is through to his third ‘Slam final. Casper finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal here last year. And also had to settle for second prize in the US Open 2022 final, as Carlos Alcaraz powered to his first Major.
There was no shame in losing 3-0 to Rafa at Roland Garros. The Spanish legend has done that to plenty of players on Court Philippe-Chatrier. In New York, Ruud made a much closer contest of it in the US Open final against Alcaraz, eventually going down 3-1.
Here at Ones to Watch we were on Ruud at 66/1 Each Way for that US Open run. We also backed Casper several times as a big-price outsider on clay, before he became a Top 5 player (current ranking: world no.4). Including at 150/1 for the Rome Masters on clay in 2020 - only for the Norwegian youngster to be edged out in the semi finals by one Novak Djokovic…
Going into this afternoon’s French Open final, Djokovic holds a 4-0 career head-to-head v Ruud. With a pair of 2-0 wins in the Rome semis on clay. And also a matching brace of 2-0 victories at the end-of-season ATP Finals on indoor hard courts. The first challenge today then will be for the Scandinavian underdog to get a set on the scoreboard…
The bookmakers have Novak as the 2/9 (1.22) favourite for the trophy. With Casper at 7/2 (4.5).
At the start of the tournament, Djokovic was 5/2 (3.5) in the Outright Winner market. With Ruud at 16/1.
Going back to that career-arc point…
I’ve drawn comparisons between Ruud and Dominic Thiem before. The Austrian made the French Open semi finals two years running between 2016 & 2017, before going one better and reaching back-to-back Paris finals in 2018 & 2019. Beaten by Nadal in both finals. And also running into Rafa and Novak in those semis.
Thiem then reached the Australian Open final in 2020 (as a 22/1 Each Way shot for this column). Beaten again by one of the Big Three; this time Djokovic prevailing in five sets, 3-2. Later that year, Dominic finally got his Grand Slam reward, winning a five-set epic against Alexander Zverev in the US Open final.
My point here being, such has been the dominance and resilience of the likes of Djokovic, Nadal, and Roger Federer for many years. The ‘Next Gen’ names have had to really go at it again and again, gradually and consistently knocking at the door between them, in order to get their hands on just one or two of the four annual Major trophies…
For example, world no.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas is still waiting. Stef has gone semi-final, semi-final, final (runner-up) in the last three Australian Opens. And was squeezed out 3-2 by Djokovic in both the Roland Garros semi final in 2020, and also in the final itself in 2021.
While Alexander Zverev has now made the French Open semis, three years running. As well as finishing runner-up to Thiem in that five-set US Open 2020 final.
Daniil Medevev won the US Open in 2021, beating Djokovic 3-0 in the final. Prior to that, Medvedev had been runner-up to Nadal in the 2019 final (3-2). The Russian has also twice been runner-up at the Australian Open, beaten 3-0 by Novak in 2021, then 3-2 by Rafa in 2022.
The scores in Djokovic’s last 10 Grand Slam finals:
Australian Open 2023 - won 3-0 v Tsitsipas
Wimbledon 2022 - won 3-1 v Nick Kyrgios
US Open 2021 - lost 3-0 v Medvedev
Wimbledon 2021 - won 3-1 v Matteo Berrettini
French Open 2021 - won 3-2 v Tsitsipas
Australian Open 2021 - won 3-0 v Medvedev
French Open 2020 - lost 3-0 v Nadal
Australian Open 2020 - won 3-2 v Thiem
Wimbledon 2019 - won 3-2 v Federer
Australian Open 2019 - won 3-0 v Nadal
This week in Paris, in both the quarter finals and semis, it could be argued that Ruud was able to take advantage of somewhat ailing opponents. With both Holger Rune and Zverev not able to perform at their full levels. The same could be said about Djokovic getting past the pre-tournament favourite and current no.1 Alcaraz. That makes for an interesting set-up for today’s match…
If I had to name one man as more likely to be carrying knocks and in need of some potential medical attention during today’s match, I’d say Novak. He’s said himself there are a few issues that he’s dealing with. Then again, we’ve seen Djokovic dig-in and produce some near-superhuman physical efforts over the years - and on multiple occasions.
10/1 and 16/1 picks…
To boil it down to a big-price selection today, then my take is that Casper is good enough to finally write his name as a Grand Slam champion. But it’s going to be extremely hard: Set Betting odds of 10/1 for Ruud to win 3-2 fit the bill for me. Which is almost twice as big as the quote for Djokovic to win 3-2…
We’ve also been tracking the Go the Distance market throughout the tournament. Bet365 offer 16/1 for today’s final to go all the way to a deciding fifth-set tiebreak. An option that’s also available at 16/1, with the bet called ‘Deadlocked!’ in Skybet’s list of ‘Request A Bet’ prices. If we do get an epic encounter today, that go-the-distance bet could come good, covering an at-the-death victory for either player…
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Novak Djokovic v Casper Ruud
Men’s Final - 1.30pm, Eurosport
Set Betting: Ruud to win 3-2 @ 10/1 Unibet, Betfair Exchange, 9/1 Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, 17/2 BetVictor, 8/1 general
Go the Distance to a 5th-Set Tiebreak? Yes @ 16/1 Bet365, Skybet
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I’ll be back next week, with four tournaments taking place on grass as we start the run-up to Wimbledon.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone