Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

Ones to Watch in Chile - at 33/1 and 50/1...

Monday 8th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Outright Winner picks…
  • ATP Santiago…
  • Ones to Watch at 33/1 and 50/1…

It’s a busy week on the tour this week, and that’s good with me. After all the cancellations in the last 12 months, a week with five tournaments is a real feast…

Last night in our Sunday Night Club email we got on players for Zapopan, Doha, and Marseille. And flagged up Ons Jabeur as an Outright Winner selection for WTA Dubai, just as soon as we can get a proper look at the markets.

Late last night, Jabeur was 25/1 with a few firms. I’ll report back tonight when the Dubai prices get revised after the day’s play.

Ones to Watch in Chile – at 33/1 and 50/1…

I’ll be brief with today’s player selections. The 1st round at ATP Santiago starts from around 2.30pm today, UK time…

So far this season there have been two clay-court tournaments, producing a 100/1 winner and a 66/1 runner-up. Those two big prices involved the Cerundolo brothers, with Juan Manuel winning in Cordoba, and Francisco reaching the final in Buenos Aires. This week, those two are more like 16/1 and 8/1 respectively.

Santiago is played at altitude, and a 50/1 Brazilian won here last year (Thiago Seyboth Wild). Norway’s Casper Ruud was runner-up though, and Spain’s Albert Ramos-Vinolas made the semis. I’m not ruling out another European doing well here in Chile…

As those 100/1, 66/1, and 50/1 examples show, we should be keeping an eye out for big-odds chances in these South American clay events…

The two names I like at the prices are Germany’s Daniel Altmaier at 50/1. And the Italian, Gianluca Mager, at 33/1 with Bet365 and 22/1 in general.

Both are at their best on clay. Altmaier made a name for himself at the French Open last year, with the 22-year-old reaching the 4th round in Paris. He’s a streaky kind of player; one that can really look top-class when he gets in the zone and on a roll. If he finds some of that form this week, then he can go deep at 50/1. He’s very talented.

Mager was a Ones to Watch pick in Cordoba last month, and as I said after that week, he is worth following again in these ATP 250 events on clay. Mager has had some close defeats recently, and it wouldn’t take much for him to click into a bit of winning form. He has a 1-0 head-to-head record against Tuesday’s 1st round opponent, Federico Coria, and looks a little underrated in the betting to me.

I’m also taking both Altmaier and Mager to win their 1st round matches.

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner picks – Each Way:

ATP Santiago (Chile Open)

  • Daniel Altmaier is 50/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betfred 
  • Gianluca Mager is 33/1 with Bet365, 30/1 Unibet, 888 Sport, 22/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Match Winner:

  • Daniel Altmaier to beat Daniel Elahi Galan is 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, 4/5 (1.8) William Hill, Betway, Boylesports 
  • Gianluca Mager to beat Federico Coria is 11/10 (2.1) with BetVictor, Evens (2.0) Bet365, William Hill, Betway, Boylesports

I’ll be back tonight or tomorrow with news on the Jabeur price in Dubai.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch