Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

Ones to Watch in Mexico – at 33/1 and 80/1…

Monday 15th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Outright Winner picks…
  • ATP Acapulco…
  • WTA Monterrey…

Good morning. In yesterday’s Sunday Night Club email, I shared my first comments on this week’s Outright Winner markets.

We were waiting for the bookies to put up a full set of prices. And as I log on this morning, coffee in hand, we have a much more comprehensive set of quotes to shoot at…

Today’s play at ATP Dubai starts from 9am, and the women kick off in St Petersburg from 10am. If we’re getting involved in the Outrights at those events, I’ll let you know tonight or tomorrow. The bookies take down Outright Winner markets while the day’s play is taking place.

Ones to Watch in Mexico – at 33/1 and 80/1…

There are two tournaments in Mexico, with WTA Monterrey starting from 6pm today, and ATP Acapulco from midnight…

These are both outdoor hard-court events. Until 2014, Acapulco was held on clay, as you might ordinarily expect for a South American tournament. Since the switch to the hard courts, it’s still been an okay hunting ground for players known for clay-court pedigree. With Rafael Nadal (2020), Dominic Thiem (2016), and the now-retired David Ferrer (2015) all lifting the Acapulco trophy since the change was made.

A young player at a good price that could go well here this week is Casper Ruud, at 33/1 and 28/1.

The 22-year-old Norwegian featured in our Ones to Watch in 2021 report, and I want to follow him at attractive Each Way prices this season. Clay is Casper’s best surface, but he has the talent and ability to become a top-class player on all surfaces. Ruud has a 3-0 head-to-head record over his 1st round opponent, Daniel Galan Elahi Riveros.

World No.7 Alexander Zverev is the 3/1 tournament favourite and a potential quarter-final opponent for Ruud. That helps bump up the price for the outsider. And while Zverev is a big threat anywhere, the German is also prone to blips. The 23-year-old went out in the 1st round at his last event, ATP Rotterdam at the start of March.

On to the women’s field in Mexico now, and I’m backing two Brits to make a good showing in Monterrey

Some players have a special relationship with particular tournaments – be it the city or country, the organisers, the playing surface & conditions. Whatever the reason, it’s very much worth noting that Heather Watson has a good history in Mexico.

The 28-year-old has won three WTA titles in her career. The two most recent trophies have both come in Mexico. Heather was a 16/1 victor in Acapulco last year, and a 25/1 champion here in Monterrey in 2016. Watson can be backed at top prices of 22/1 and 18/1 this week, and I’m not ruling out another big week for her here.

At really juicy odds, Katie Boulter at a standout 80/1 with Bet365 appeals as an outsider, and also at 40/1+ in general. Katie is in our good books already this year, beating Coco Gauff as a 5/1 underdog before the Australian Open.

The 24-year-old is officially ranked outside of the world’s top 300, but that’s down to injury rather than performance. I’ve been impressed on several occasions by Boulter’s level, and I think she’s a bit underestimated in the betting.

Today’s 1st round match against world No.111 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova is a tough hurdle to overcome, but not as scary as some might have you believe. Indeed, Boulter won their only previous meeting. And if Katie can get her attacking game firing this evening, then she could break serve several times…

As is often the case in the Outright markets and with our Ones to Watch outsider selections in particular, a win today will see Boulter’s price chopped. I’m also backing her as the underdog in the Match Winner market.

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner – Each Way:

ATP Acapulco (Abierto Mexicano Telcel)

  • Casper Ruud is 33/1 with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 28/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred

WTA Monterrey (Abierto GNP Seguros)

  • Heather Watson is 22/1 with Bet365, 18/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, 16/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betway
  • Katie Boulter is 80/1 with Bet365, 50/1 Boylesports, BetVictor, 40/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Match Winner:

  • Katie Boulter to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova is 13/10 (2.3) with Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill, Betway

Play starts from 6pm, live on Amazon Prime Video.

There’s plenty to say about the tournaments in Dubai and St Petersburg, too. I’ll be back tonight or tomorrow with my player picks for those.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch