Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021
Waiting on the prices…
Sunday 14th March 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
It was almost a case of all’s well that ends well last week, with 20/1 pick Roberta Bautista-Agut reaching the final at ATP Doha. We had to settle for runner-up prize, with an Each Way payout.
Nikoloz Basilashvili lifted the Doha trophy at a whopping 250/1. Yet more proof that the big prices can come good on the weekly ATP & WTA tours. Along the way, Basilashvili saved a match point against Roger Federer.
Ones to Watch this week…
We turn our attention to a new week now, and there are four more tournaments for us to enjoy:
WTA 500 – St Petersburg – indoor hard
WTA 250 – Monterrey – hard
ATP 500 – Acapulco – hard
ATP 500 – Dubai – hard
We start our week with a first look at the Outright Winner markets.
The men’s event in Dubai kicked off today with the opening batch of 1st round matches, and continues from 9am Monday, UK time. The women’s indoor tournament at St Petersburg starts from 7am.
The pair of Mexican events, Monterrey and Acapulco, play from 4pm Monday. We’ll take a first dip into those draws tomorrow, or before Tuesday morning.
And of course, throughout the week, I’ll keep you up-to-date with my latest thoughts, observations, player & price picks, for all four tournaments taking place.
Stand-off in Russia…
WTA St Petersburg:
This one doesn’t really get going until Tuesday, with just three singles matches on Monday’s order of play. As I write, only Bet365 and Ladbrokes & Coral have got their Outright Winner markets up for St Petersburg…
One 1st round match to look out on Tuesday will be Daria Kasatkina v Clara Tauson…
Kasatkina has won at home in Russia before, a 22/1 Ones to Watch triumph for us indoors at Moscow in autumn 2018. Daria didn’t win another title on the tour until this year, taking the Phillip Island Trophy in Melbourne last month, at 14/1. The 23-year-old’s track record in St Petersburg reads (2020 first): 1st round, quarter final, semi final, 2nd round, semi final.
The 18-year-old Tauson has the potential to be the breakthrough women’s player of 2021. The exciting Danish teenager lifting a first senior title the other week, coming through qualifying to win WTA Lyon indoors, at 16/1. Clara has come through the qualifying rounds again here in Russia. And if we add that to a lower-tier ITF title win in Germany in February, the youngster is on a 13-match winning streak on indoor hard courts at all levels.
It's a shame these two have to meet in the 1st round. Whoever wins this match-up has great potential to go all the way this week.
As I write this evening, the limited set of prices available has Kasatkina 10/1 with Bet365 and 9/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral. Tauson is 9/1 and 8/1 with those firms. Not the juiciest of prices, and only one of them can make the 2nd round. Let’s see how the markets shape after Monday’s matches.
Elsewhere in the St Petersburg draw, two other names that could snap into a bit of winning form:
Kristina Mladenovic has shown glimpses of her best game recently, and has done well here at St Petersburg before. It’s hit and miss though, with a record of: 1st round, 1st round, runner-up, winner, 1st round. She’s 20/1.
Talking of hit or miss, Jelena Ostapenko is a classic one for that tag. She’s 16/1 and 14/1 to have one of her good weeks. In 2019, the Latvian went 10-2 for indoor hard-court matches, making back-to-back finals in Linz and Luxembourg. A 1st round match on Monday against Paula Badosa looks tricky. The Spaniard reached the semi finals indoors at Lyon last time out.
The bookies are also being a little slow with their Dubai Outrights, and again I’m going to wait for Monday or Tuesday to get a proper grasp on the draw-sheet and prices. As I write, Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes & Coral are the only firms with their quotes available. That will change soon enough.
I’ll be back in the morning with my first Outright Winner selections of the week.
Enjoy the tennis…