Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021
My 40/1 outsider for Dubai…
Monday 15th March 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
As promised, I’m back with my take on the ATP Dubai and WTA St Petersburg events…
Usually, I like to go more in-depth with explaining my reasoning and research. But time is against us, with just a short window to slot our Outright Winner betting in, before the action continues from 9am Tuesday.
So, I’ll be brief as can be. Here are my player picks, at the most appealing prices…
ATP Dubai:
Dan Evans @ 33/1
Hubert Hurkacz @ 40/1
Evans and Hurkacz have respectively made the semi finals and quarter finals here before, and both men have the potential to get more career silverware in the cabinet than they have to date.
Dan was a 28/1 pick in Doha last week, just edged out 2-1 by Roger Federer in the 2nd round. Hurkacz was on the long-shot radar at 300/1 at the Australian Open. The 24-year-old has yet to hit top gear; when he does, it’ll likely be at a hard-court event like this one.
Both have tight-looking 1st round matches on Tuesday. If Evans can get past Aslan Karatsev, and Hurkacz can see off the injury-prone Richard Gasquet, then one or both of these men could be in for a big week. The value lies in getting on before the off, and anticipating their progress to the next round.
WTA St Petersburg:
Kristina Mladenovic @ 28/1
The bottom half of the draw includes several contenders all trading at less than exhilarating prices. Veronika Kudermetova leads the betting from this side of the field, at 5/1 for the title. With the three women discussed in Sunday’s email now trading between 6/1 (Clara Tauson) and 11/1 (Jelena Ostapenko). With Daria Kasatkina 12/1 at best, and facing Tauson in the 1st round on Tuesday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of that four reach the final, but the odds don’t get me going.
At bigger figures and in the opposite side of the draw, Mladenovic has got to the final here in St Petersburg on two out of five previous visits. Recent 2021 performances suggest the Frenchwoman is regaining a bit of her form. She looks up for it again.
If top seed and 9/2 (5.5) market leader Ekaterina Alexandrova falters under the pressure of being favourite – as she has done before – than Mladenovic could be the one to come through at larger odds. Alexandrova is yet to reach a final in four attempts at St Petersburg, despite having a superb career formbook on indoor hard courts overall.
Ones to Watch
Outright Winner – Each Way:
ATP Dubai (Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships)
WTA St Petersburg (St Petersburg Ladies Trophy)
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts from 9am.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson