Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022
ATP Miami - fun in the sun at 66/1...
Wednesday 23rd March 2022
Good morning. Lots to talk about today…
The big tennis news is that, age 25, women’s world no.1 Ashleigh Barty has announced her retirement. We wish Ash all the best in whatever comes next. The Australian leaves the sport with three Grand Slam trophies under her arm.
In terms of future stars of the game, we get the chance to see three very young ladies in action in the WTA Miami 1st round today…
Two 16-year-olds playing in the main draw. Alexandra Eala, and Linda Fruhvirtova (who we've spoken about before, as well as her younger sister, Brenda). And at 17 years of age, Robin Montgomery also takes to the court today.
Fun in the sun at 66/1…
The men’s 1st round kicks off from 3pm. As with the WTA event, the ATP Miami Open has a juicy recent history for big-odds results. Last year here at the Hard Rock Stadium, we found the 33/1 runner-up…
2021:
ATP Miami – Hubert Hurkacz champion – 100/1
ATP Miami – Jannik Sinner runner-up – 33/1
2020:
Didn’t play – coronavirus
2019:
ATP Miami – John Isner runner-up – 40/1
2018:
ATP Miami – John Isner champion – 80/1
ATP Miami – Alexander Zverev runner-up – 25/1
2016:
ATP Miami – Kei Nishikori runner-up – 25/1
Miami Open men’s – Ones to Watch…
Along with that recent history of outsiders doing well here. Add in the fact that this year’s event is without two of the very biggest names in Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
Once again – with the wind in our sails from a massive-price winner at Indian Wells last week – it’s time for us to take on the favourites, and go Ones to Watch hunting…
Top half of the draw:
The two biggest seeds in the top half of the draw are Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
After flopping in Indian Wells last time out, top seed Medvedev has the chance to regain the world no.1 spot from Djokovic. He needs to reach the semi finals to do so. Medvedev is the tournament favourite at 5/2 (3.5) and 9/4 (3.25). Tsitsipas is 10/1 – 12/1.
A player also priced up as a serious title contender – down to the sheer excellence of his play, and the speed of his rise towards the top of the game – Ones to Watch in 2022 teenager Carlos Alcaraz. The 18-year-old was a 28/1 (29.0) shot when reaching the Indian Wells semi finals last week. Here in Florida, he’s installed as third-favourite in the Outright Winner betting, at 13/2 (7.5) at best with Bet365, and 6/1 (7.0) in general.
We can do better on price by looking for one of the other highly-rated youngsters to come through…
Two upcoming Americans knocking on the door for a big breakthrough this season are JENSON BROOKSBY and SEBASTIAN KORDA. Each available at 50/1…
Brooksby is up to a career-high of no.39 right now, and I’m expecting him to improve on that this summer. The 21-year-old has already made a final in the States this year (ATP 250 Dallas, runner-up). And last time out at the ATP 1000 in Indian Wells, Jenson beat Tsitsipas and reached the Last 16. Brooksby is a fantastic mover and competitor, and tough to play against, with a box of tricks in his locker. He’s ambitious, and will be looking to go far here.
Korda nearly beat Nadal at Indian Wells, cracking under the pressure a little when serving for the match twice, having led 5-2 in the final set. Rather than crush him for failing to get over the line there, let’s credit Seb for getting into that position in the first place, against one of the greatest players of all time. As with Brooksby, 21-year-old Korda has many attributes needed to climb to the Top 10 of the men’s game in the coming seasons. Let’s get behind these guys while we’re still getting chances at 50/1+.
Also in the top half, our new best friend Taylor Fritz. After a huge win for us at Indian Wells (100/1, 70/1, 66/1 and the like!), Fritz is going to have a warm place in our hearts. But you can’t let emotion get in the way of determining a good bet. The Indian Wells & Miami Open ‘sunshine double’ is mighty tough to do. Fritz had injury concerns at the end of last week. He’s 50/1 this time. Let’s leave him off the list this week.
A Ones to Watch pal that I do want to follow is HUBERT HURKACZ. The Pole was the last man to play Roger Federer, knocking out the Swiss legend in the Wimbledon quarter finals last summer, where we were on the underdog at 200/1 for the tournament. Here at Miami last year, Hurkacz was a 100/1 winner, lifting his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title. We won’t get 100/1 this time, but odds of 33/1 are very acceptable about a player with a proven record at this venue. I can see him coming through his quarter of the draw, and if confidence & momentum kick in, a return to the final is not out of the question. If the likes of Medvedev and/ or Tsitsipas fail to deliver again, then 33/1 could end up looking like a big ticket.
Bottom half of the draw:
With Medvedev and Tsitsipas in the top half, the other Top 5 seeds are in the bottom of the draw. And there’s one man whose price stands out compared to the others:
Alexander Zverev 2nd seed (6/1)
Matteo Berrettini 4th seed (28/1)
Andrey Rublev 5th seed (12/1 – 14/1)
Odds of 28/1 for MATTEO BERRETTINI catch my eye. His price is significantly bigger than each of the other Top 5 seeds.
Berrettini has not quite been at his top level since picking up an injury the other month, but looks to be getting back on track now. He has never won a full-level ATP title on hard courts, and I guess that’s what critics or the oddsmakers could point to here. But I don’t let that put me off – this musclebound Italian has made the semi finals at both hard-court Grand Slams: Australian Open in January, and US Open 2019. With a huge serve that wins him plenty of free points, Berrettini could strong-arm his way to the business end of this tournament.
Elsewhere on this side of the drawsheet, Wild Card entrant Nick Kyrgios is 33/1 with a couple of firms, and 28s & 25s in general. He could face Rublev in the 2nd round. At Indian Wells, Kyrgios showed some promising signs that he was ready to play serious tennis. But he’s just too hard to trust to keep his temper in check. I like him. But a run to the final would be a surprise.
In terms of our last-time-out picks…
Cameron Norrie is just 25/1 here. We had him at more like 66/1 at Indian Wells, where he reached the quarter finals. And before that, 33/1 when getting to the final in Acapulco. On grounds of price, I’m willing to look elsewhere in Miami.
Last year we had Jannik Sinner at 33/1 at this event, and the young Italian rewarded us with a half-the-odds Each Way payout by reaching the final. The 20-year-old was also in the book at similar odds for Indian Wells a fortnight ago, but ended up pulling out after two matches, due to illness. Sinner is 28/1 and 25/1 today. I feel we should wait to see how he turns out in the opening round or two.
Backing the Americans looks a worthwhile tactic right now. Fritz of course was the big case in point last week. But several other American men did well in California. And I’m happy to put up two big servers from the States once again – with the tasty odds a nice incentive…
JOHN ISNER (66/1) may be 36 years of age, but as I said the other week, he has the look of a man who fancies one more day in the sun. Miami would certainly look like a good location for another stab at glory. Big John won this tournament in 2018, and also made the semis in 2015. Those results both came at the old venue. In 2019, the Miami Open moved to its new home at the Miami Dolphins’ Hard Rock Stadium. In year one, Isner made the final once again. Last season, he followed that up by reaching the Last 16. To reiterate the ‘home form’ statistic that I flagged up last time: Isner has made 29 ATP finals in his career, and 25 of them have come in the USA.
REILLY OPELKA (50/1) is the heir apparent to Isner’s throne. While 6’10” Isner is approaching the end of his career, the 6’11” Opelka is on the rise…
The 24-year-old has reached five ATP finals so far, and four of them have been in the States – with the other also on hard courts, in Canada. Last summer he made a statement run at that Masters 1000 event in Toronto, beating the likes of Kyrgios and Tsitsipas on the way to the championship match. Last week in Indian Wells, Reilly wasn’t far off taking out Nadal to reach the quarter finals; there was no shame in going down 7-6, 7-6 to Rafa in the Last 16.
There’s more to Opelka’s game than just a big serve, too. His groundstrokes and point construction have improved over the last couple of years. And whilst I’m trying to resist a well-worn cliché, it is true to say that his movement around the court is probably better than one might assume ‘for a big man.’ Odds of 50/1 make Opelka an outsider to follow here in the USA.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Miami – Miami Open presented by Itau
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Play starts at 3pm, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the day.
I’ll be back throughout the tournament with more from Miami. You can watch all the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson