Tennis Betting Advice - March 2023
Indian Wells today - desert thrills at 143/1...
Tuesday 14th March 2023
Good afternoon… what’s that you ask? What are you watching on TV at the moment, Tom? And what time did you go to bed last night?
I strapped myself in for almost the full schedule of Indian Wells tennis yesterday…
Play started from 6pm UK time. And barring a walk round the block, and an interval to watch some of the new David Attenborough Wild Islesprogramme with my wife. I was glued to the Indian Wells coverage on Amazon Prime Video, all the way through to 3am…
It won’t be long now until the UK-based tennis-following routine moves from late nights, to early mornings. With the European clay-court calendar coming up as we head into spring. Followed of course by the French Open in Paris. And then the sunny switch to grass – and Wimbledon.
For the rest of March though, I’m on midnight biscuits and tea (and yes, I know midnight is a bad time to be having caffeine…). With the Miami Open coming up next week. And Indian Wells this week…
Big night tonight…
Things went to plan for us in the Californian desert yesterday, in that both of Monday’s 40/1 women’s Outright Winner picks won their respective 3rd Round matches. With Marketa Vondrousova beating a frustrated Ons Jabeur in straight sets, and Karolina Muchova eventually getting past a tenacious Martina Trevisan, 2-1.
There’s no doubt who the best performer was out of those; Vondrousova will go off as the favourite against her Czech compatriot Muchova this evening. Whoever prevails, we will have a player through to the Quarter Finals at a good price.
In the men’s event, 50/1 Tommy Paul took out our other 50/1 shot, Hubert Hurkacz, in a three-set contest that featured some high-quality play.
As I said in my Indian Wells preview last week, I like Tommy Paul’s understated demeanour. And the American will have the majority of the crowd behind him when he takes on young Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime in the night match (2.30am UK time). The victor will go though to the Quarter Finals. The bookies make it a pick ‘em, with William Hill going 10/11 (1.91) each for Tommy and Felix.
It's tough matches all round from here on in at Indian Wells. Our 33/1 man Cameron Norrie is the underdog against Andrey Rublev. Expect a big battle in that one, with some energy-sapping rallies.
And yesterday’s big-price Ones to Watch outsider, Cristian Garin, will also go off second in the betting today, against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. In the tournament Outright Winner market, Betfred’s 150/1 for Garin has gone. But Unibet still have the Chilean at 120/1 Each Way, as I write. With 50/1 available in general.
It’s a big night for our tournament picks then, with some tough assignments in store. But the potential rewards – as ever – are there, with big prices on our side. And the chance of getting a couple of our players through to the Quarter Finals of this prestigious tournament.
Indian Wells today – desert thrills at 143/1…
In today’s match markets, I’m returning to a big-odds theme that I’ve mentioned a few times in recent months. When there are close-looking match-ups on the WTA Tour, I really like the way that three 2-1 Set Betting scores roll up for a massive-price treble…
These three women’s Indian Wells Last 16 encounters all look like potential three-set rollercoasters to me. I watch a lot of tennis, and a lot of matches involving these six ladies. And it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see all three go the distance to a final set this evening…
Maria Sakkari v Karolina Pliskova
6pm+
Barbora Krejcikova v Aryna Sabalenka
Approx. 7.30pm
Petra Kvitova v Jessica Pegula
Approx. 10pm
For the main singles bets here, Total Sets: 3 is the pick for each of those three matches. William Hill call this bet Both Players to Win a Set: Yes. While others such as Skybet, Unibet, Boylesports, Betway, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook refer to this option as Over 2.5 Sets.
Once again (and how may times have I said this), the Oddschecker site is not much use for finding all the markets we want to target. I’ve manually trawled through the main bookies online this morning. You can expect to get around 6/5 or better (2.2+) each for the various three-set options in our targeted matches today. Unibet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral have the best bundle from the odds that I’ve seen. Followed by William Hill and then Betway.
You may wish to also combine those Total Sets picks in a multiple (the treble is 13/1 at the best prices). But I’m going back to that mega-odds 2-1 Set Betting tactic instead, and for small stakes, playing the three underdogs to win in three sets…
Sakkari to win 2-1
Krejcikova to win 2-1
Kvitova to win 2-1
Splitting a stake across the four lines of a Trixie. Eg. 0.25 point x 4 = 1 pt total stake. A Trixie consists of three doubles and a treble.
The above Set Betting treble is worth over 130/1. A combo like this isn’t going to come home very often – but at those odds, it doesn’t need to. I for one won’t mind staying up all night if the results go our way…
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Maria Sakkari v Karolina Pliskova:
Barbora Krejcikova v Aryna Sabalenka:
Petra Kvitova v Jessica Pegula:
Note: at Unibet the Total Sets bet is called Over 2.5 Sets.
Three matches listed above:
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Play starts from 6pm.
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me at:
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson