Tennis Betting Advice - March 2023
ATP Miami Open - Ones to Watch at 40/1 and 100/1...
Wednesday 22nd March 2023
The curse of the Double Faults…
The curse of the Double Faults reared its head again yesterday. 100/1 teenage pick Linda Fruhvirtova racked up 13 double faults in her 2-1 loss to Katherine Sebov…
That was the biggest win of Sebov’s career so far, by ranking. Ifs, buts, and maybes, I know… but the 24-year-old Canadian ‘only’ won four points more than Fruhvirtova in the entire match. When you consider that Linda hit 11 more double faults than her opponent, you can see how precious those ‘given away free’ points are. If the 17-year-old can clean up those double faults, she’ll start posting a lot more wins on the tour.
Kostyuk starts well, Noskova plays today…
Elsewhere on day one at the women’s Miami Open, our 20-year-old pick Marta Kostyuk was a convincing 2-0 winner in her 1st-round match. If you missed her at big prices yesterday, Kostyuk is 50/1 in general today, with Unibet 80/1, and Betfred 66/1. Marta’s next match will certainly get a bit of media attention. The Ukrainian takes on a Russian opponent, Anastasia Potapova.
Our other teenage WTA Miami pick, Linda Noskova, plays today. The 18-year-old Czech can be backed at 100/1 in the Outright Winner market with the likes of Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Betway.
The best price on the favourites…
In yesterday’s email, I included some analysis on favourites and tournament winner prices. Noting that the 2023 trend - so far - has been towards the shorter prices. With the number of 50/1+ finalists down compared to last season & the overall average for recent years.
If the big names at the top of the betting prevail again here in Miami, there’s a chance we’ll see a similar pair of finalists lining up as in Indian Wells last week…
In the Miami Open ‘Name the Finalists’ market, Bet365 have the men’s (ATP Miami) betting with ‘Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev’ priced as the 4/1 favourite. That would be a repeat of the Indian Wells final, which 19-year-old Alcaraz won to move back to world no.1. With so much tennis in Medvedev’s legs recently, after reaching four finals in a row. And a few injury issues for the Russian last week (ankle, thumb). That 4/1 price doesn’t excite me. However…
In the WTA Miami betting, Bet365 go 20/1 for another Elena Rybakina v Aryna Sabalenka final. My gut reaction is that 20/1 is bigger than I was expecting. Those two have played out two big finals already this season, with Sabalenka prevailing at the Australian Open for her first Grand Slam title in January. Rybakina responded by landing her maiden WTA 1000 title at Indian Wells last Sunday.
If reigning Miami champion Iga Swiatek falters again, as she did last week - well beaten by Rybakina in California (and they could meet again here in the quarter finals… Rybakina has beaten the world no.1 twice this year, both times in straight sets). Then Sabalenka and Rybakina have the potential to prove a cut above the rest of the field once again.
As far as I can see, only Bet365 are offering this market. If you can get it, I’d say that Name the Finalists: Rybakina v Sabalenka is worth covering at 20/1. (Treating our standard Outright Winner picks as 1 point Each Way, eg. 2 pts. I’d class this Name the Finalists selection as a 1-pt Win Only single.)
ATP Miami - Ones to Watch…
On to the men’s Miami Open now, which starts today from 3pm.
I’m keeping it simple here by backing players that we’ve flagged up as big-odds Ones to Watch contenders before. With the Miami courts set to play faster than Indian Wells, rewarding big servers and attacking hitters that bit more - which could make the difference for these guys…
With reigning champ Alcaraz no better than 2/1 to defend his title, and complete what would be a spectacular Sunshine Double. I have to respect the teenage superstar here. The energetic young Spaniard is the real deal. He’s in the top half of the draw. We will start our hunt elsewhere…
The bottom half contains the potentially weary Medvedev (3/1 at best). Along with Australian Open runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas (18/1), who by his own recent admission is still on the comeback from injury. Plus a former Ones to Watch youngster who is a great professional with a brilliant attitude, but so far still seems to just lack the mental cutting edge to really win at the very top level - Felix Auger-Aliassime (22/1 - 16/1).
The Outright Winner, Each Way prices for me from this bottom side of the ATP Miami Open draw-sheet:
JIRI LEHECKA @ 100/1 - 80/1
This 21-year-old Czech newcomer has shown flashes of brilliance over the last 18 months or so, including a scintillating run to the Australian Open quarter finals this year, the ATP 500 Rotterdam semis last season - and the final of the ATP Next Gen event. Searching for his first senior ATP title. It could well come this year.
FRANCES TIAFOE @ 50/1 - 40/1
The 25-year-old American is up to a career-high ranking of no.14 in the world. Frances plays his best in the States, and loves to entertain and work up the crowd. He feeds off it. Made the semi finals at Indian Wells last week, from a similar starting price. Also made the semis at the US Open last season. Has reached week two (Last 16 or better) in each of his last four appearances at the Miami Open, including one quarter final. His sole ATP title to date also came in the USA on hard courts, at Delray Beach, Florida.
HUBERT HURKACZ @ 40/1 - 33/1
A man we’ve backed several times before at events like this and prices like these - including last time out at Indian Wells. Hubi won Miami in 2021, and made the semi finals again last year. Has the serve and shots to drill deep again this fortnight.
BEN SHELTON @ 100/1
At just 20 years of age, Shelton is a Ones to Watch name we can expect to back several times in the months and season ahead. Love his energy, love his attitude. Great competitive spirit - and some top-notch lefty shots. This young American will believe he can go all the way, and you can’t put a price on that kind of self-belief. Could face Hurkacz in the 3rd Round; I’m happy to back both at the prices.
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Miami - Miami Open presented by Itau
ATP Miami - Miami Open presented by Itau
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Jiri Lehecka @ 100/1 Unibet, LiveScoreBet, 10Bet, 80/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway
Frances Tiafoe @ 50/1 Bet365, 40/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, LiveScoreBet, 10Bet
Hubert Hurkacz @ 40/1 Bet365, 33/1 Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, LiveScoreBet, 10Bet
Ben Shelton @ 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway
Note: to get the very best price combo on Shelton: 100/1 Win Only & 80/1 To Reach the Final with Bet365.
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Play starts from 3pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
You can watch the Miami Open live on Amazon Prime Video.
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson