Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Indian Wells - Day 2: Men's picks at 50/1 and 250/1...
Thursday 7th March 2024
Welcome to Day 2 of your brand new, DAILY Indian Wells service…
I’ll be in your inbox around lunchtime every day, for the full 12 days of the tournament…
Play starts at 7pm, UK time – weather permitting…
Wednesday’s Day 1 play was cut short last night, after a series of rain delays. It was a trappy opening batch of 1st round matches for favourite-backers…
Nine of the 17 completed matches were won by the underdog in the betting. Including defeats for headline-grabbing names such as Britain’s Jack Draper and Katie Boulter, and 16-year-old ‘phenom’ Mirra Andreeva. All sent packing, early doors…
Favourites getting knocked out is usually good news for us here at Ones to Watch, outsider bettors that we are…
The Seeds don’t enter the fray until the 2nd round here, starting from Friday. But if the early signs are anything to go by, there’s no reason to expect anything other than the big-odds tournament-winner opportunities that we talked about in our build-up to Indian Wells. These courts and conditions play well for some players, and tricky for others…
In yesterday’s Day 1 email, we got four names in the Outright Winner, Each Way book for the women’s event. Now it’s time to look at the ATP side of things…
Men’s Outright Winner market…
The trophy favourites are of course the top-ranked men in the game…
World no.1 Novak Djokovic is here for the first time in five years, and goes off at just 15/8 (2.88). With the recently-injured world no.2 and defending Indian Wells champion Carlos Alcaraz, somewhat ‘bigger’ than expected these days, at 5/1 – 4/1.
World no.3 and new Grand Slam titlist, Australian Open winner Jannik Sinner sits in-between those two, at odds of 3/1.
After that, last year’s runner-up Daniil Medvedev (despite saying he doesn’t like the courts here), makes up the single-figure quotes on the list of favourites. The recent Aussie Open runner-up and world no.4 goes off at 8/1 at best with the mainstream firms.
In recent years, you & I have backed the likes of Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev in tournaments like this at odds of 33/1, 50/1 and so on. But that was before they made it big. Our ongoing Ones to Watch task is to find the next big thing…
We did it here in 2022, with 100/1 shot and ‘home’ player Taylor Fritz delivering in style at a massive price. The man he beat in the final that year, Rafael Nadal, was just pulled out of this year’s tournament…
Rafa close to retirement…
Rafa is well-loved and respected in the sport – and rightly so. But the 37-year-old Grand Slam legend has been ailing for some time now. And I can’t help but feel he’s afforded a bit too much leeway when it comes to his record of withdrawing late from high-profile tournaments.
Nadal took part in a highly-lucrative exhibition match in Las Vegas on Sunday. Dubbed the first ever ‘Netflix Slam,’ Rafa and Carlos Alcaraz were reportedly paid $1 million each for playing. The match went all the way to a third-set tiebreak (conveniently for the 10,000 ticket holders)…
Indian Wells patrons may feel a little hard done by. BNP Paribas Open organisers took the somewhat unusual step last week of announcing early, exactly when Nadal would be playing his 1st round match here (tonight on main court, in a prime-time slot). Keen to capitalise on having a multiple Major winner like Nadal in the 1st round, to get the bums on seats. That’s not to be now…
And if you cast your mind back to Wimbledon 2022, I’m still a bit sore from the fact that we were on Fritz as a 100/1 shot at SW19 that summer… only to see the American edged out in the quarter finals by Rafa, in a five-set epic. The Spanish superstar then withdrew from the tournament the next day… granting Nick Kyrgios a free pass through the semis to the final. Denying fans the chance to see Nadal v Kyrgios. And leaving our man Fritz wondering what if, and if only.
Anyway…
Back to the business at hand today – and our first picks for the ATP Indian Wells 2024 title…
I might live to regret this next statement. But Ones to Watch in 2024 Reportyoungsters Holger Rune and Ben Shelton (both 50/1 at best) have let me down a few too many times recently – and neither arrive here in any great 2024 form. Of course, as I always say with the young players – the big leap can come at any time, and often seemingly out of the blue. But right now, I feel there are stronger 50/1 candidates for us in this men’s field…
One of those being our 66/1 US Open 2022 runner-up, CASPER RUUD. The 25-year-old Norwegian fits into that underdog category of ours, in that he’s a Top 10 player (no.9 currently), who doesn’t get many column inches – and is available to back at a big price…
Ruud is 50/1 in general. He appeals to my outsider sensibilities here…
Casper ticks the box for the US Open/ potential Indian Wells connection we discussed at the start of the week. The former New York runner-up is yet to shine here in the Californian desert. But I reckon he has the serve and forehand to do better than his previous best 3rd-round showings. Especially seeing as the likeable Scandinavian arrives here with some good hard-court form under his belt – reaching two finals in a row last month in Mexico (ATP 250 Los Cabos, and ATP 500 Acapulco).
We were also on Casper at the other ATP 1000 event held on outdoor hard courts in the States every March, the Miami Open. In 2022 we backed him halfway through the tournament at 22/1, and he rewarded us with an Each Way payout for reaching the final. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Ruud is underrated on hard courts.
Hubert Hurkacz is a potential foe for Ruud in this part of the draw. Again, I’m on record as being a big fan of Hubi – and a frequent backer. The big-serving Pole is also a 50/1 shot here… but also falls into the category of having flopped at the business end of big tournaments, just one too many times for my liking. Hurkacz has won at ATP 1000 level before – just not when I’ve been able to catch him right (!)…
As I said yesterday with the women’s draw – we can’t back them all…
Our friend Taylor Fritz is trading at 33/1 as I write, and has been trending as a popular bet since the draw was made (indeed, he’s been trimmed from 50/1, without hitting a ball). The American no.1 and world no.12 has previous here of course, having won for us in 2022 – and also made the Indian Wells semis in 2021, and quarter finals last year. Taylor has yet to hit those 2022 performance heights again though (yet). And the price doesn’t make me want to jump at it.
GRIGOR DIMITROV at 66/1 with a couple of firms and 50/1 in general gets my full attention, though. The 32-year-old Bulgarian is closing in on the Top 10 once again (no.13), having recently won his first ATP title since 2017…
Resurgent is the word: since the US Open at the end of last summer, Dimitrov has gone semi final – quarter final – semi final – last 16 – final – final (won) – final – semi final on the ATP Tour. That includes a runner-up finish at the ATP 1000 Masters in Paris, from odds of 40/1. And a semi final at this level in Shanghai, too.
Back in his magic season of 2017, Grigor won an ATP 1000 on North American hard courts (Cincinnati @ 33/1). Given that he’s just lifted silverware again for the first time since that glory year, there’s a sense that Dimitrov could be approaching a late-career golden moment right now…
Here at the ATP 1000 in Indian Wells, the gifted right-hander has made the quarter finals and semi finals, on two of his last three visits.
Ruud and Dimitrov are in the top half of the draw, AKA Djokovic’s side. In the bottom half, where reigning champ Alcaraz is the big name, I like the triple-figure, rank-outsider quotes for two of the most in-form and improving players on the men’s tour right now…
JIRI LEHECKA got an honourable mention in my pre-season report. The 22-year-old Czech has since won his first ATP title. And has impressed me with his power and brave shot-making, on every occasion I’ve watched him play this season. His section of the draw could open up for an underdog run, populated as it is by names with question marks by them (Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and the often-frustrated Andrey Rublev). Surprises have happened before at this event, and some firms are going 200/1+ for the up-and-coming Lehecka here. I like his game right now.
ALEXANDER BUBLIK has been around a lot longer – but age 26, it looks like the Kazakh representative is finally turning his ridiculous talent into serious professional results (Nick Kyrgios springs to mind). Bublik has a huge serve. And magic hands, too – drop-shots and lobs are all in his arsenal. Alexander has been climbing the rankings of late, now up to a career-high of no.20.
Bublik has gone semi final – final (won) – last 16 – quarter final – final in his five ATP hard-court tournaments this season. He’s never made an ATP 1000 final before. But if he’s ever going to do it, now looks like the time. 200/1+ is widely available.
Today’s matches…
The 1st round action continues today. I’ve put together this men’s accumulator for us. Five fancied players to win, paying around 7/2 or better (4.5+)…
Play starts in these matches from around 8.30pm:
Jakub Mensik to beat Seong Chan Hong
Gael Monfils to beat Max Purcell
Borna Coric to beat Sebastian Ofner
Alex Michelsen to beat Jaume Munar
Zhizhen Zhang to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic
Here’s how that looks on the coupon at BetVictor:
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Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:
See above for full details
ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Men’s 1st Round matches:
Note: see my recommended bookies for Match Winner bets and accas here.
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Play starts from 7pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright markets during the matches.
I’ll be back tomorrow lunchtime with your Day 3 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone