Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
Indian Wells: Two for the book at 40/1 and 200/1...
Tuesday 4th March 2025
The Indian Wells draw was made last night. And we’re getting our first two picks in the book today, in order to snap up a couple of big prices…
As I mentioned in Monday’s ‘Match madness’ email, this month’s two big tournaments in the States - Indian Wells, and the Miami Open - have a great history of producing big-odds finalists and winners…
We’re kicking things off today with two women’s picks for Indian Wells. Both are seeded, so won’t be in action for a couple of days - granted a bye into round two…
But with the bookies’ first wave of Outright Winner prices going up during the course of this afternoon, I’m pleasantly surprised by the odds on offer here.
So, let’s get these two in the book today (with more youngsters/ outsiders to follow throughout the course of the tournament, which runs until next weekend).
EMMA NAVARRO @ 40/1
Navarro was one of my picks for this event 12 months ago. Back then, the American was in the early stages of a remarkable breakthrough year, including winning a maiden WTA title (Hobart)… reaching a first WTA 1000 ‘Masters’ level semi final (Toronto)… culminating in a debut Grand Slam semi final at the US Open…
And now cracking the Top 10. Up to a new career-best ranking of no.8, having reached the Australian Open quarter finals in January 2025, followed by winning WTA Merida in Mexico last week.
All of those significant results came on outdoor hard courts. And having also made a quarter-final run here in the Californian desert last season, the 23-year-old has demonstrated a penchant for performing to a very high and consistent level on hard courts that are perhaps not the fastest, and have a bit of grit to them.
Emma beat top name Aryna Sabalenka here last March. The American is drawn in the same half as the Belarusian world no.1 and top seed once again, although they can’t meet until the semis. Sabalenka is yet to win this title, and arrives here having lost three of her last four competitive matches since finals weekend at the Aussie Open…
Our new best friend Madison Keys could be an opponent for Navarro before Sabalenka comes into sight. But while we enjoyed odds of 100/1 and 80/1 for Maddie’s magic fortnight at the Australian Open in January, as with so many Ones to Watch biggies over the years - we now have to leave Keys out for a while.
That’s very much on the grounds of prices; Keys is just 14/1 at best for Indian Wells (Betfred), and more like 12/1 in general. In comparison, fellow American and Top 10 player Emma Navarro can be backed at 40/1.
MARIA SAKKARI @ 200/1
As a huge-price outsider to get in our pre-tournament book today. If you’re looking for a 100/1+ candidate with some marvellous credentials at this particular venue. Then Sakkari is one to follow…
Granted, the 29-year-old Greek suffers with her nerves, and with the pressure of being a star in her home country and a high-profile name in the sport. But it wasn’t that long ago that we were still saying all those things about Madison Keys. I’m not sure Sakkari has the same weapons to draw on as Maddie, but the current world no.29 (former no.3) has always been one of the fittest and most physical women on the tour.
Most importantly of all for this selection this week. We can ignore Maria’s current 2025 three-match losing streak. And point instead to her remarkable record here at the venue known as ‘Tennis Paradise’...
Sakkari’s last three visits to Indian Wells have produced the following results: final (runner-up), semi final, and final (runner-up) again.
That tournament/ venue form has to count for something. Maria’s Indian Wells prices in that three-year spell: 66/1 in 2024, 28/1 in 2023, 16/1 in 2022.
And with price being king, the fact that Maria Sakkari is 125/1+ across the board as I write, suggests that we shouldn’t ignore the opportunity to back a triple-figure outsider with such course form to her name.
Maria is in the same section of the draw as 3rd seed and world no.3, Coco Gauff. The 20-year-old American arrives on an unwanted three-match losing streak of her own. And Sakkari actually holds a positive career head-to-head v Coco, 5-3… with the most recent victory coming right here, at Indian Wells 2024.
As with Keys, a few on & off-court changes may also help Sakkari make a return to the top tier - and really challenge for a big trophy. She has a new coaching team this season, for example. And a change in mindset for 2025 isn’t the only thing these two have in common…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
WTA Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open:
Emma Navarro @ 40/1 Betfred, Bet365, Unibet, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral
Maria Sakkari @ 200/1 Betfred, 150/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, 125/1 Bet365, Skybet
Bookies will take down Outright markets during play (Qualifying concludes this evening, and the 1st Round proper starts from 6pm Wednesday, UK time).
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone