Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
WTA Miami: Ones to Watch at 25/1 and 100/1...
Monday 17th March 2025
Sunday night’s Indian Wells men’s final featured two graduates from our Ones to Watch in 2024 Report. And it was the first ATP 1000 final to be entirely contested by players born after 2000…
Playing in his first Masters final, 23-year-old Jack Draper lifted the trophy. And the big-hitting British left-hander ran out a very worthy winner on the day. Beating 21-year-old Holger Rune - who was our pick halfway through the tournament last week.
Draper started Indian Wells at 33/1 at best, and 28/1 in general.
Rune went off at 50/1 and 40s. We had to settle for a 10/1 place payout from our 20/1 Each Way bet on the Dane, placed after the 3rd Round.
That 2024 list also gave a very strong nod to teen sensation, Mirra Andreeva. The 17-year-old won WTA Indian Wells yesterday. The Russian youngster has now won two 1000-grade titles in a row. She beat the world no.1 and no.2 along the way last week. The last young women to do that on the WTA Tour were the likes of Martina Hingis and Serena Williams. The bar is set high. Mirra is now a Top 10 player for the first time (no.6)...
One of the biggest tasks in tennis is to win the Sunshine Double. That’s Indian Wells and the Miami Open, played back-to-back in March. The women’s event in Miami starts tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday 3pm+, UK time)...
Andreeva was 28/1 when she won Dubai last month… 11/1 in California last week… and now, the teenager is single figures to win a third straight 1000 title, at just 17/2 (9.5). That’s not a price for me. But it’s about the only thing not to like about this very, very impressive young player.
Amanda’s showing 1000 prowess…
My 2024 pre-season report also gave an honourable mention to a former teen star, AMANDA ANISIMOVA. After some time away from the spotlight, the American - still now only 23 years of age - is producing some of her best and most consistent results…
After winning a maiden ‘Masters’ 1000 title herself last month (WTA Doha, as a 50/1 shot). Anisimova is currently up to a career-high ranking position of no.17 in the world.
Amanda also made the final of the big WTA 1000 in Toronto last August, having gone off as a 66/1 outsider. Both Doha and Toronto are played on outdoor hard courts, as is the Miami Open…
And with the Miami courts/ conditions traditionally playing a bit faster than Indian Wells… and Anisimova being a player I have down as ‘likes pace’... then standout odds of 60/1 and 50/1 appeal here as an underdog bet with both promise & pedigree.
Jess likes it here…
As with last week’s you-can’t-back-them-all comments. The likes of Emma Navarro (40/1 for Miami), and youngsters Linda Noskova (66/1 general), Clara Tauson (80/1), and Diana Shnaider (66/1) are all in my head. But not necessarily at the top of my gut feelings or form-book fact-finding mission right now. All have suffered a couple of early-rounds losses that are enough to make me happy to sit back and see how the first few days of this nearly two-week long tournament pan out…
Two I like instead from the off are as follows…
JESSICA PEGULA at a solid 25/1 across the board. That looks a decent Each Way price for a player who tends to deliver her best tennis at home in the USA. The 31-year-old world no.4 has never won a Grand Slam - but her best ever result at that level came in New York at the US Open late last summer (final - runner-up), where Jess went off at just 16/1…
While the biggest prize of all still eludes her, Pegula has proved that she can deliver trophies at 1000 level. Winning Montreal in 2023 and Toronto 2024.
Here at the Miami Open, Pegula’s recent record reads: Quarter Final 2024 - Semi Final 2023 - Semi Final 2022. We’ll take that.
And finally for today…
Donna can make the breakthrough at 100/1…
Let’s get a 100/1 shot in the book before a ball is hit. One to back in that rank-outsider price category right now is DONNA VEKIC…
The Croat was highlighted as a player to watch in my Notes from the Tour piece on 6th February, under the heading of: “28 is a pretty good age to be good”... which is a quote from Pam Shriver, who has worked closely with Vekic…
Donna is 28 right now, turning 29 this June. It’s not an exact science, of course (!). Madison Keys was 29 when she won her maiden Major at the Australian Open this January, and turned 30 years old last month.
While we’re not getting better than 16/1 for Keys during this year’s Sunshine Double - and more like 12/1 in general at both Indian Wells (reached semi final), and now Miami. Vekic appeals at three figures. The big breakthrough has been hinted at a few times. I believe Donna has it in her. And it’s all about price. 100/1+ does it for me.
For example. Last year, Danielle Collins won Miami at 100/1; for her first WTA 1000 trophy, age 30 - and was planning to retire. It’s never too late…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
WTA Miami - Miami Open presented by Itau
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Amanda Anisimova @ 60/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway
Jessica Pegula @ 25/1 Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway
Donna Vekic @ 125/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
Still to price up: Betfred.
The women’s Miami Open starts from 3pm on Tuesday (UK time), live on Sky Sports Tennis. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.
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The men’s Miami Open starts on Wednesday. I’ll be in touch on Tuesday afternoon with our first look at that…
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone