Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
Indian Wells: Young guns at 66/1 and 80/1...
Thursday 6th March 2025
It might sound like a copout, a throwaway phrase - or obvious, even - but ‘you can’t back them all’ is a phrase I like to keep in mind…
As with so many of the big tournaments, there are probably 10 - 20 names I could throw in the mix for Indian Wells. For both the men’s and women’s events…
My longlist becomes a shortlist, and from there, other factors have to hold sway in the decision making. Price, recent form, tournament track record, all play a part…
Before a ball was hit in the Californian desert this week, we got on Emma Navarro at 40/1 and Maria Sakkari at 125/1+ for WTA Indian Wells…
After the first day’s play on Wednesday, despite not actually taking to the court yet herself, Navarro is now 25/1 and 22/1 in general - with BetVictor, SpreadEx & Sporting Index going 33/1.
Betfred usually hold a tennis Outright Winner price longer than they did for Sakkari on Tuesday - with the standout 200/1 chopped to double-figures (just 50/1 as I write this morning). Plenty of 150/1 is still available elsewhere (Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, SpreadEx & Sporting Index).
In terms of that you-can’t-back-them-all comment, other names on my radar for the women’s event include:
Marta Kostyuk - who we were on at 100/1 at Indian Wells last year, when she made the semi finals. But so far in 2025, the Ukrainian remains frustratingly up and down with her level and consistency, even within the same match. Marta’s still only 22 years of age though, and as I always say, the great leap forward could come at any time. The world no.24 is as big as 80/1 with SpreadEx & Sporting Index, but as short as 28/1 with Bet365 - and 50/1 and 66/1 in general. It looks like the bookies can’t make up their mind about Kostyuk, either.
Diana Shnaider - after appearing in our pre-season Ones to Watch 2024 Report, the young Russian started scooping up wins and trophies for fun. Diana collected the first four WTA titles of her career in 2024. But the talented and powerful 20-year-old is yet to click back into rhythm in 2025, yet to string together more than two match wins in a row this season.
Shnaider is the kind of hungry, exciting young player capable of springing surprises in the big tournaments. She’s 80/1 - 66/1 here, but sits in the same section of the women’s draw as the two players we’ve already got in the book, Navarro and Sakkari…
As does Amanda Anisimova, who got a nod in our 2024 report when she was down at no.368 in the rankings. The 23-year-old American has now surged to a career-best no.18 in the world, after winning a maiden WTA 1000 title in Doha last month. Anisimova has made the final in two of her last three 1000 ‘Masters’ events, at odds of 66/1 (runner-up) and 50/1 (won). She’s 50/1 at best this week, with some firms at just 28/1 and 25/1.
I hope you’re getting the picture here (!). I could write all day with my notes and thoughts on so many players…
On the grounds of price (and maybe an immediate post-Grand Slam win dip), I already mentioned Madison Keys, who is 16/1 - 10/1. Keys was 100/1 and 80/1 last time we backed her, in January…
Likewise, in the men’s betting. Taylor Fritz was a 100/1 winner for us at ATP Indian Wells 2022. The American is 22/1 at best this time, and as short as 11/1.
I have to be similarly bloody-minded with my approach to teenage star, Mirra Andreeva. Getting the best odds vs. the hype machine has been my concern with the talented Russian since day one. The teenager lost in the 1st round here 12 months ago. Having won a maiden WTA 1000 title last month in Dubai as a 28/1 shot, the world no.11 goes off at just 9/1 here.
I won’t reel off every if, but, and maybe in my head/ on my notepad. But the likes of Jelena Ostapenko (hit or miss), and Belinda Bencic (returning mum, looking good so far this year) are both 50/1 with Betfred…
And the same firm quotes Dayana Yastremska as a 200/1 outsider (with SpreadEx & Sporting Index at 400/1, and others 100/1 in general). The 24-year-old Ukrainian has always looked to me like having a massive run at a big event in her locker…
Indeed, Yastremska got to the Australian Open semi finals at triple-figure odds last year. And we backed the current world no.46 several times at fancy prices when she was first breaking onto the scene before the pandemic, including here at Indian Wells back in 2019, at 100/1.
Dayana won her 1st-round match in straight sets last night. She faces Ons Jabeur next. And is in the same section of the draw as 7/2 (4.5) title favourite, world no.2, and two-time Indian Wells champ, Iga Swiatek. The Pole beat Yastremska in Dubai last month, 7-5, 6-0.
In the men’s Indian Wells field, names to look out for include the Czech trio from our current, Ones to Watch 2025 Report. Teenager Jakub Mensik is in an intriguing 3rd quarter of the drawsheet, which also includes another highly-promising youngster, the American Learner Tien, 18-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca, and Ones to Watch regulars Ben Shelton of the USA and Great Britain’s Jack Draper (as well as the aforementioned Fritz).
Mensik’s countrymen Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecki have both started the year with trophy wins, and will be looking to make the next step up at ATP 1000 Masters level.
Those chaps mentioned above are all 33/1+ in the betting, with many getting on for more like 50/1 - 66/1, and even bigger.
A player I’ve liked for a long time and who’s having a positive turnaround of late is Denis Shapovalov. The Canadian left-hander will have his work cut out here at ‘Tennis Paradise’ though, placed in the same side of the draw as the two outright favourites, two-time reigning champ Carlos Alcaraz, and five-time Indian Wells winner Novak Djokovic. Denis’ career head-to-head record reads 0-1 v Alcaraz, and 1-8 v Djokovic. Shapo’ is 66/1 across the board for a dream run this fortnight.
Back these two young guns at 50/1+…
All told then, the players I’m adding to our women’s Indian Wells 2025 book today are also familiar names from our Ones to Watch reports and bets in recent seasons. With the combination of the drawsheet, price, and early-season form informing my choices here…
LINDA NOSKOVA was identified as the leading young gun in our 2025 ‘Czech-list’ report. The 20-year-old won eight out of 11 hard-court matches in Asia last month, and currently sits at no.31 in the rankings.
Linda has been a promising prospect for some time already, and has already beaten the likes of Swiatek and Mirra Andreeva in her young career, and could face one or both in her side of the draw here.
Noskova also has the look and feel of a player who has the mental edge needed to bring her best game on the big stage, and that counts for a lot. Odds of 50/1+ appeal, with 66/1 and 80/1 available (see below).
CLARA TAUSON featured in my pre-season list back in 2022. The young Dane has had injuries to contend with in-between, but Clara is looking ripe and ready to win in 2025…
Tauson reached a debut WTA 1000 final in Dubai last month, having gone off at 66/1. She’s started the year with a bang. Winning WTA Auckland in January, and also reaching the semi finals in Linz.
The 22-year-old holds a tour-leading 15 match wins so far this year (win-loss = 15-4). With victories over the likes of world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka, and newly-crowned Grand Slam winner Madison Keys.
Tauson has got momentum, confidence, and power. Great attributes for a young gun to do something special and become the latest big-odds breakout story at Indian Wells. There’s lots of 50/1+ on offer, with Betfred 66/1 as I write.
As for the men’s event, we’re going to see how the first few days pan out - with little likely to change in the outright odds, barring any major withdrawals. I’ll report back at the start of next week.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
WTA Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open:
Linda Noskova @ 80/1 Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, 66/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, 60/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
Clara Tauson @ 66/1 Betfred, 55/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 50/1 Skybet, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
Bookies will take down Outright markets during the day’s play (from 6pm, UK time).
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P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone