Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
ATP Miami: Ones to Watch at 35/1 and 300/1...
Tuesday 18th March 2025
You’ll be hard-pressed to see a better example of attacking left-handed tennis than the display Jack Draper put on in Indian Wells last week…
Draper was 33/1 and 28s last week in California. Now a freshly minted ATP Masters 1000 champion and a Top 10 player. This time, Jack goes off at just 10/1 for the men’s Miami Open…
As we discussed in yesterday’s women’s preview, winning the Sunshine Double is a rare feat. And the only thing that has stopped Draper’s rise to the top of the sport so far has been his injury record/ heavy-match-schedule physical durability.
Ben’s ready to break through...
It just so happens that there are a few other exciting left-handed talents in my notes for ATP Miami, which gets underway at the Hard Rock Stadium tomorrow afternoon…
There’s the fast-rising American teenager, Learner Tien. He’s up against another red-hot teenager in the 1st round, Joao Fonseca (right-handed)...
Canada’s always fun-to-watch Denis Shapovalov, and his show-stopping one-handed backhand…
And a hard-not-to-like BEN SHELTON of the USA, who gives his all - and then some. Wearing his heart on his shirt (or should that be, vest)...
Shelton has been a Ones to Watch regular over the last couple of seasons. And while I’ll admit I was hoping for more than the 22/1 currently on offer at industry leader Bet365 (who were 40/1 for Ben last time out at Indian Wells). There is some 35/1 and 28/1 available for Miami as I write. And with a few firms yet to price up, if you hold out, you may yet see some more 33/1 and the like (see below). With play not starting in the men’s event until Wednesday afternoon - and the seeded Shelton not set to be on court for a couple of days, with a bye through to round two…
Should he meet Shapovalov in this quarter of the draw, the head-to-head between those two free-swinging lefties is 3-0 to the American.
Age 22, Ben has already got two Grand Slam semi finals under his belt - both on hard courts. Most recently, at the Australian Open this January. The other being here in his beloved States, at the US Open 2023.
Shelton is the current world no.14. Like Draper, he’ll have his eye on a Top 10 breakthrough sooner rather than later…
Ben’s form at the two biggest tournaments so far this season: Aussie Open - semi final, and then Indian Wells - quarter final. On both occasions, he was only beaten by the player who went on to lift the trophy.
When the big moment does come for Shelton. Be it a Major, or a big Masters event like this one. One thing’s for sure. We won’t be able to get him at chunky odds anymore…
Giovanni to serve it up…
Ben Shelton is in the top half of the men’s draw. As such, avoiding the outright favourite, Carlos Alcaraz… as well as big names Novak Djokovic and 2023 Miami winner Daniil Medvedev, until the final.
Another improving young player to follow in the more favourable top side of the draw-sheet is French 21-year-old, GIOVANNI MPETSHI PERRICARD…
Ranked at a career-best no.29, he sneaks into the seedings here. The tall youngster announced himself on the tour by winning his first two ATP titles last season.
The big-serving Mpetshi Perricard has the weapons to cause an upset here…
We’ve seen ‘ace machines’ do well at this tournament specifically, and on fast hard courts in general, several times before (think the now-retired former Miami champ John Isner, who Giovanni is already being compared to in terms of record-breaking ace-count capabilities).
With world no.1 Jannik Sinner suspended right now. No.2 Alexander Zverev is the no.1 seed by default here. The German was runner-up to Sinner at the Australian Open, but he is yet to win more than two matches in a row since then, across four tournaments. If Sascha is below par this week, then the upset could be on in this section…
With some 300/1 and 100/1 on offer, and 80/1 in general. We’ll take a flyer on the 6’8” Mpetshi Perricard serving his way into form.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Miami - Miami Open presented by Itau
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Ben Shelton @ 35/1 BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, 33/1 Star Sports 28/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 25/1 William Hill.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 300/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, 100/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, 80/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Star Sports
Still to price up: Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway.
The men’s Miami Open starts from 3pm on Wednesday (UK time), live on Sky Sports Tennis. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.
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P.S
Women’s picks…
The women’s Miami Open starts this afternoon. View Monday’s preview & picks here. As I write, Bet365 and Boylesports are now a standout 66/1 for Amanda Anisimova. If you miss the women’s market today, check back tomorrow.
I’ll be back on Thursday with my next tennis update for you.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone