Tennis Betting Advice - March 2026
Indian Wells: Take it from here at 25/1 and 100/1...
Monday 9th March 2026
We’re into week two of Indian Wells. Play continues in the 3rd round from 6pm UK time. Let’s make our next moves in the tournament Outright Winner markets…
In the men’s, we’ve got two of our three original young-gun selections still standing. With 100/1+ pair Learner Tien and Arthur Fils both playing very well. Happy with those.
In last week’s day-one preview, I mentioned DANIIL MEDVEDEV as a form player with a great recent record at this event. The only question mark was over the technicalities of him actually getting to the States, having been briefly stranded in Dubai. The Russian made it to California in the end, though – and duly won his opening match in straight sets. Let’s take the rejuvenated world no.11 while he’s still available at 20/1+ in general.
Lookout, too, for our highly rated Ones to Watch in 2026 name, JOAO FONSECA. After a slow start to the year following an injury setback, the Brazilian teenager has come to life on the hard courts here. The 19-year-old has reeled off three impressive wins so far. Next up, tomorrow, a huge challenge against world no.2 Jannik Sinner. As I said the other day, though, when the new kids on the block arrive, they can tear up the book. Odds of 100/1 are still there for Fonseca, across the board. My underdog/ next-big-thing antenna is twitching.
In the women’s draw, we’ve had a bruising time of it in the early rounds, losing all three selections. I talked about a lot of young players in last week’s analysis, before a ball was hit, and of that batch, Alexandra Eala will face Linda Noskova for a place in the quarter finals. The former benefitted from Coco Gauff pulling out injured, mid-match; the latter beat our 100/1 shot Sorana Cirstea in a three-set comeback last night. As I said last week – we can’t back them all.
Looking elsewhere in the WTA Indian Wells field, the bottom half of the drawsheet will be blown open if Maria Sakkari – who I mentioned as a rank outsider with course form (still 250/1 today) – can beat star name Iga Swiatek tonight. It remains a big ‘if’ though, and I can’t quite bring myself to pull the trigger on this particular large-price line of enquiry.
Two players I do like the look of at the prices today, however, are 50/1 for BELINDA BENCIC, and 40/1+ for MADISON KEYS…
The Swiss player was a semi-finalist for us way here back in 2019, and Bencic looks to have a promising route through to the business end this week. If she beats Elise Mertens next up, Bencic could go on to meet Jessica Pegula – and the career head-to-head is a commanding 4-0 to Bencic. The last WTA 1000 event, Dubai last month, saw mum-on-tour Elina Svitolina reach a final at this level. When Belinda gets her metronomic game going, she can play world-class tennis on her beloved hard courts, and could become the latest pro-tennis mother to step it up on the big stage.
Keys made the semi finals here last year, faces underdog Sonay Kartal tonight (the Brit had a long, tough match in the last round)… and if Maddie gets through and goes on to meet recent Aussie Open winner Elena Rybakina, the head-to-head there is level at 4-4, and the American may have built up her confidence to put together a big run in front of the USA fanbase. As always with Keys, when in the zone, she has the shot-making power to take the game out of any opponent’s hands. I’m pleasantly surprised to see Maddie at 40/1+ here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open
WTA Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open
Play continues from 6pm, at which point bookies will suspend the Outright Winner market for the day.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back on Wednesday/ Thursday with your next Indian Wells email. Follow our WhatsApp channel for service updates.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone