Tennis Betting Advice - March 2026
Miami Open: Men's picks at 80/1, 100/1, and 150/1...
Wednesday 18th March 2026
We hit the bar with our latest big-price finalist last week. Our 25/1 shot Daniil Medvedev played brilliant tennis throughout, but was just edged out in the Indian Wells final by world no.2 Jannik Sinner, 7-6, 7-6.
Medvedev’s runner-up finish gave us a half-the-odds Each Way payout there. This week, at the men’s Miami Open which starts this afternoon, the Russian is just 14/1 in general.
Sinner will be looking to become the first man since Roger Federer (2017) to pull off the March ‘Sunshine Double’ in the States. The Italian has Indian Wells in the bag. Now he’s going for Miami. The bookies make Jannik around 5/4 (2.25). With world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz very close in the betting, in the region of 6/4 (2.5) for the title.
Last time out, in California, the bookies priced an Alcaraz-Sinner final at 15/8 (2.88) - and it didn’t happen. In Florida this fortnight, the bookmakers are 7/4 (2.75) for the top two to meet in the trophy match.
Backing a pair of short-price favourites is not the Ones to Watch way.
We go after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…
Here’s a reminder of the five men we backed in Indian Wells earlier this month:
Arthur Fils
Learner Tien
Jakub Mensik
Daniil Medvedev
Joao Fonseca
Looking at the ATP Miami draw and prices. We've already mentioned that Medvedev is now much shorter in the betting here. While teenage Ones to Watch name Fonseca is drawn to face Alcaraz in what would be a box-office 2nd round match, should the 19-year-old get through his opener.
One I’m keen to go with again is ARTHUR FILS. The Frenchman’s 2026 injury comeback continues to gather pace. He made the Indian Wells quarter finals for us last week, when in the book at triple figures in the Outright Winner market. As with Indian Wells, Fils also made the quarter finals here at the Miami Open last year, before injury scuppered his season…
The 21-year-old world no.31 is seeded here, with a bye through to round two. Arthur has a decent-looking draw, and odds of 80/1 and 66/1 are big outsider prices. Fils has the power, the game, and the self-belief to mount a challenge.
I’m also happy to follow up with some repeat business on two other names from both our recent Indian Wells activity, and our annual Ones to Watch lists…
JAKUB MENSIK was a breakout 250/1 winner in Miami last year. The big-serving Czech returns to defend his ATP Masters 1000 title. And odds of 100/1 - 80/1 are big, considering this young guy has already shown that he has the power and ability to go all the way at this level, and indeed, at this very venue.
LEARNER TIEN was another of our recent beaten quarter-finalists. Eventual champ Sinner dismissed the young left-hander last week. But - if you’ll excuse the pun - Tien is a fast learner. And is presented with another winnable-looking route through the early rounds…
Playing at a career-best world ranking (to date) of no.21, the 20-year-old American is in the same section of the Miami draw as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who Tien beat in Indian Wells. And Learner also has a handy 3-1 head-to-head in his favour against his recent Doubles partner, a certain Mr Medvedev. Odds of 100/1+ appeal again for this Ones to Watch name.
As with yesterday’s Miami Open women’s picks, we’ll take three names from day one in the men’s. And monitor form, results, and prices as the early rounds progress this week…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Miami Open - Miami Open presented by Itau
Arthur Fils @ 80/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, 66/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway
Jakub Mensik @ 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, 80/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
Learner Tien @ 150/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 125/1 Bet365, Betway, 100/1 William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor
Play starts from 3pm UK time, at which point bookies will suspend the Outright Winner market for the day.
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I’ll be back with your next Miami Open email on Monday. And a Notes from the Tour article tomorrow.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone