Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019
French Open: Day Two – 5/1 for a 5-setter…
Monday 27th May 2019
French Open – Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Two of your French Open 2019 daily service.
I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning for the next two weeks. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Only big ones here…
Day One went as well as we could hope for with each of the players that we had in action winning in straight sets.
As outlined in yesterday’s email, we’re going after big prices in the Women’s Outright Winner betting. We have Marketa Vondrousova (40/1), Anett Kontaveit (50/1) and Maria Sakkari (50/1) as Each Way picks.
In the Name the Finalists market, we’ve taken 50/1 or 40/1 for a Naomi Osaka/ Karolina Pliskova final.
Pliskova kicked off with a comfortable 2-0 win on Sunday.
Vondrousova wasn’t at her best in her 1st Round match, but you can’t do more than win 2-0 in your opener and the 19-year-old outsider is safely through to the next round.
Kontaveit and Sakkari play their 1st Round matches on Tuesday.
A different ball game…
We have to tread a little more cautiously in the Men’s Outright markets…
The dominance of the big boys is not to be underestimated. World No.2 Rafael Nadal has won the French Open an eye-popping 11 times and is a shade odds-on at 10/11 (1.91) to make it 12. Rafa is in the bottom half of the draw.
World No.1 Novak Djokovic has won each of the last three Grand Slams, and is looking to hold all four at the same time for the second time in his career. That would be another staggering achievement. We’re talking some serious history-book tennis with these two players. Novak is in the top half of the draw, and is 11/4 (3.75) for the trophy.
Last year’s runner-up Dominic Thiem is the next in line, at 7/1. He’s in the top half with Djokovic. We get a first look at all three men today.
To give you an idea of the kind of dominance we’re dealing with here, take a look at the match prices for today. The treble on Nadal, Djokovic & Thiem to win their 1st Round matches pays just 1/14 (1.07).
In the Women’s Name the Finalists market, we’ve got odds of 50/1 for the world’s Top 2 players. In the Men’s betting, the Nadal/ Djokovic final is 9/4 (3.25) at best.
As you can see, we’re dealing with two very different tournaments in Paris.
That’s not to say we won’t be having a big-price pick or two in the Men’s Outright markets (there are a couple of players in my thinking for tomorrow’s email). But the Women’s draw is certainly the best place for us to be hunting, and that’s why we moved in there with our first picks yesterday.
We’ve already seen the first upset, with World No.5 Angelique Kerber knocked out by one of our Ones to Watch in 2019, Russian teenager Anastasia Potapova.
Moving on to today’s matches…
5/1 for a 5-setter…
We’re looking for attractive prices and one that stands out for me today is in the Set Betting market for the Men’s 1st Round encounter between Radu Albot and Tennys Sandgren (scheduled for 3pm).
Albot is the 1/3 (1.33) favourite to win, which is understandable as the Moldovan has shown the better form this year as well as holding a higher ranking and more career clay-court match wins than his American opponent.
However, this one might not be plain sailing…
Sandgren came through Qualifying with three out of three 2-0 wins, taking his clay win-loss record to a respectable 11-5 this season.
The head-to-head is 3-0 to Albot. But two of those meetings were ten years ago, in lower-tier ITF Futures events in 2009. Their last match was on clay in 2017 and that one went the distance to three sets, with Albot clinching it in a final-set tiebreak.
With this Grand Slam match the best of five sets, I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two get into a long battle this afternoon…
Albot is no stranger to five-set duels in Paris. What he lacks in hitting power he makes up for in work rate, and that can lead to some extended points, games & sets on clay.
In four previous main draw appearances at Roland Garros, three of Albot’s matches have gone all the way to the 3-2 score-line. That includes both his 1st & 2nd Round matches here last year.
Betting Over 36.5 Games at around 5/6 (1.83) in the Total Games market is one option. But for me the bigger price of 5/1 (5.00) for a 3-2 win for Albot makes much more appeal.
Radu Albot v Tennys Sandgren:
BET: Set Betting – Albot to win 3-2 @ 5/1
BOOKIES: 5/1 (6.00) Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betway, Boylesports
The Rollover – bet No.2…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from the French Open with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. And this feature adds some extra excitement to our tennis coverage.
After £10 on bet No.1 won @ 1/5 (1.20) yesterday with Kristina Mladenovic beating Fiona Ferro (6-3, 7-6), we have £12 going on Rollover bet No.2 today, with the match scheduled for 3pm:
Molleker is one to watch in the years to come. The 18-year-old German has won six of his last seven matches on clay, including coming through Qualifying for the French Open. With 62 match wins on clay to his name already, the teenager is more at home on this surface than the 21-year-old Bublik (34 career clay wins).
Bublik has some flashy moments but is wildly unreliable, and the young & up-and-coming German is a clear pick to make it through this match and into the second round.
Molleker is 4/11 (1.36) with Bet365, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet.
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Tuesday, when there’s a promising match schedule with the 1st Round due to be completed.
Enjoy the tennis…