Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019
French Open: Outright Winner picks at 50/1…
Sunday 26th May 2019
French Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Here we go...
Good morning and welcome to Day One of your French Open 2019 daily service.
I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning for the next two weeks. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: email@example.com
Women’s Outright Winner…
These Grand Slam tournaments only come along four times a year. Roland Garros is the second one on the calendar – and the only Slam played on clay. Let’s get started…
In recent years there’s been an eye-catching trend for big-price finalists in the Women’s events. Last year Sloane Stephens was a 50/1 runner-up. In 2017, Jelena Ostapenko was a 100/1 winner.
Overall, eight of the last 10 Women’s Grand Slams have seen winners at double figures or bigger (10/1+). There have been eight different trophy winners in the last nine Slams. Five of those were first-time wins.
We have all the encouragement we need to go after the outsiders and underdogs in Paris. And that’s exactly what we’ll be doing over the next two weeks.
We’re kicking off Day One with our initial Outright Winner picks for the Women’s. The opening day is the best time to get the biggest prices. We’ll also be looking to latch onto any in-form & value selections during the tournament, too. For example, last year we got on Sloane Stephens at 25/1 halfway through the French Open.
Avoiding the favourites…
As the recent Grand Slam history above shows, we shouldn’t fear taking on the market leaders. World No.3 Simona Halep is the reigning champion and 4/1 favourite. She’s one from four in Grand Slam finals. World No.4 Kiki Bertens is 8/1 and is yet to reach a Grand Slam final. Both players are respected, of course. But the prices don’t do it for me.
The same goes for odds of 14/1 for World No.1 Naomi Osaka, No.2 Karolina Pliskova and No.6 Petra Kvitova. All have made Slam finals before. Osaka has won the last two, back to back. Kvitova has won Wimbledon twice, and was runner-up at the Australian Open. Former US Open runner-up and French Open semi-finalist Pliskova was bigger at 20/1 when winning Rome earlier this month.
After springing a surprise at big odds in 2018, Stephens is just 16/1 this time. Three-time Roland Garros champ Serena Williams is also 16/1. The 37-year-old has managed just three tournament appearances and three match victories since the Australian Open in January.
Those prices don’t hold enough in them for me to choose one or two of that bunch Outright. However, one tactic I like for a speculative bet on two of the big guns is to go for the Name the Finalists market, where a combo can churn up a massive price…
50/1 for the Top 2…
A Naomi Osaka/ Karolina Pliskova final is available 50/1 and 40/1.
Having triumphed at the last two Slams, Osaka is a fully justified World No.1. Although she’s yet to fully succeed on clay, this 21-year-old is the real deal in big tournaments and if she finds her stride in the early rounds here then another final is a genuine possibility. I get the feeling there’s still more to come from Naomi.
I recently referred to Pliskova is Ms. Reliable on the tour. Karolina has reached the final in two of her last four tournaments, including that Rome win which was her biggest clay-court title to date. The recent form has taken the Czech up to World No.2. Aged 27, she looks ready to add to her one previous Grand Slam final appearance soon.
40/1 and 50/1 outsiders…
Sticking with the big prices, three of our recent Ones to Watch players standout as outside chances in the draw…
In my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 list, Maria Sakkari and Dayana Yastremska were named as two youngsters to follow this year. Sakkari gets the nod here. Choosing not to play last week may prove a very smart move…
From the last 60 finalists in ATP & WTA Tour events played in the week directly before a Grand Slam, just two players have managed to carry that form & fitness through and still be standing when it came to the Slam final (and they were both men). Yastremska won the WTA Strasbourg title last week. It remains to be a seen if she can keep up the scintillating form she showed in the final there over the full course of the Paris fortnight.
Sakkari on the other hand has had over a week to prepare, after an impressive six-match run to the Rome semi finals. The 23-year-old Greek’s clay-court form this season is an impressive won 14 lost 4 (78%). Including a final (won) and a semi final from her last three tournaments. Sakkari has the physical power to hit opponents off the court, and looks to be making great strides in terms of consistency and mental toughness, too. All good attributes when it comes to troubling the big guns and making an impact at a Major.
Sakkari is in the top half of the draw (Quarter 1) with Osaka. Kontaveit is also in the top half, but the lower section (Q2) that hosts Halep and Kvitova. Like Sakkari, Kontaveit is 23 years of age – which happens to be the average age of women’s tournament winners so far in 2019. The time looks right for the Estonian to have her best-ever Grand Slam.
Vondrousova is in the bottom half of the draw, in the same section (Q4) as Yastremska, Karolina Pliskova and the recently-injured Angelique Kerber. The 19-year-old Czech left-hander has beaten Halep on clay this season and is very much on the up. With a variety of shots, power and craft at her disposal, Marketa is every inch One to Watch here.
At odds of 40/1 and 50/1 each, those three are our initial ‘underdog’ picks for the Women’s title.
Women’s French Open
Name the Finalists:
BET: Naomi Osaka/ Karolina Pliskova @ 50/1
BOOKIES: 50/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 40/1 Bet365, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
BET: Anett Kontaveit @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
BET: Marketa Vondrousova @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
BET: Maria Sakkari @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill
Note: Unless otherwise stated, all our Outright Winner bets are 1 point Each Way (total stake 2 pts). And all our other bets (eg. Name the Finalists, Matches, Specials) are 1 point to win.
The Rollover – bet No.1…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from the French Open with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. And this feature adds some extra excitement to our tennis coverage.
After our Rollover streak reached eight winners last week and we cashed out, we’re kicking off Day One of the French Open with bet No.1 in a new £10 Rollover:
Mladenovic is looking good for this season with Osaka’s old coach onboard and a new-found confidence after a 10-3 match win-loss on clay so far. A current ranking of No.54 doesn’t reflect the 26-year-old’s true ability. The former World No.10 is expected to get back into the Top 50 (and better) soon.
Ferro is at a career-high No.88 and there may be better to come from the 22-year-old in years to come, but right now Mladenovic is the clear pick to come through this all-French 1st Round encounter.
Mladenovic is 1/5 (1.20) with Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet.
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Monday, including a first look at the Men’s Outright Winner market.
Enjoy the tennis…