Tennis Betting Advice - May 2021

Grand Slam connections at 300/1…

Monday 3rd May 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Another early-bird pick for the French Open…
  • Grand Slam connections…
  • 300/1 and 100/1…

Another early-bird for the French Open…

Last month we looked at the recent record for youngsters and Grand Slam newcomers doing well at the French Open. On the back of that, we identified teenager Leylah Fernandez at 100/1+ as an early-bird Ones to Watch selection for this year’s trip to Roland Garros.

I’ve come across another ‘form line’ that’s for the French Open, and it’s also got me very interested in the big prices for this month’s upcoming Major in Paris. What’s more, the player that comes up was already in my notes and on the radar. In fact, I’ve been regularly checking the bookies’ Outright Winner markets, waiting for prices to appear…

I reckon the bookmakers are waiting to see what happens in the big tournament in Madrid this week, as a few names are missing from some of the women’s French Open 2021 lists. However, as with Fernandez the other week, a couple of firms are up – and the massive odds available simply can’t be ignored: 300/1 and 100/1.

Grand Slam connections…

Here's the connection that caught my eye over the weekend:

In recent seasons, WTA Charleston finalists have a knack of going on to produce their career first/ best results at upcoming Grand Slam tournaments – including the French Open…

WTA Charleston (clay, USA):

  • 2018 – runner-up Julia Goerges – reached Wimbledon semi final that summer; her best ever Grand Slam result
  • 2017 – runner-up Jelena Ostapenko – went on to win the French Open that year; her first career title
  • 2016 – winner Sloane Stephens – went on to win a maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open 2017, then reach the French Open final in 2018
  • 2015 – winner Angelique Kerber – went on to win first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open 2016, and also reached two more Major finals in 2016 – runner-up at Wimbledon, and winning the US Open

It could be that there’s nothing in that ‘pattern,’ and it’s just coincidence. But then again, seeing as Charleston is usually the first or second WTA clay-court tournament of a season, that trend could have something going for it…

300/1 and 100/1…

Here’s the player that I’ve had my eye on:

The 2021 Charleston champion is Veronika Kudermetova. The 24-year-old Russian’s victory in the States last month was the first clay-court title of her career. Veronika is now up to a career-high of no.28 in the world rankings.

And she’s going well again on clay in the current tournament taking place in Madrid, with a pair of dominant 2-0 wins last week. This afternoon, she faces world no.12 and two-time Wimbledon champ, Petra Kvitova.

If Kudermetova takes the big scalp today, then the word might start to spread: the Russian is a dark horse for the upcoming French Open…

As I say, Veronika has been on the radar for us for a while. Last season, she was one of six women that featured in our Ones to Watch in 2020 report. So far, players on that list have gone on to do very well at the Majors. Including last year’s 100/1 French Open winner Iga Swiatek, and 50/1 Australian Open champion, Sofia Kenin.

  • While we’re on the topic of ‘connections’ – here’s another one for Kudermetova. She’s married to Sergei Demekhine, who is also her coach. Demekhine has previously coached another Russian, Vera Zvonareva, and while they worked together, Zvonareva reached two Grand Slam finals

Oftentimes, players on our annual OTW lists go on to do great things in the season after we first flag them up…

For example, Karolina Muchova was also in our 2020 report, and she’s looking good in 2021… at the Australian Open in February, Muchova reached a first Grand Slam semi-final. A breakthrough that prompted us to put the 24-year-old Czech in the book for Wimbledon this summer, at a top-price 50/1 (now 33/1 in general).

Veronika Kudermetova was one of my big outsider picks at the Aussie Open, at 200/1. I think the signs are there for an exciting Grand Slam run. And the way she’s playing right now, confident and aggressive, taking on all-comers with her attacking game – then we should follow the Russian this spring at the French Open…

As I write this Bank Holiday Monday morning, only two firms are up – but the prices are great. Unibet are a standout 300/1 Each Way, and William Hill are 100/1 Each Way. Other bookies don’t appear to be listing Kudermetova yet, although she can also be backed on the Betfair Exchange, Win Only.

If you can get Kudermetova in the book at big odds, then that looks a very good outsider bet to me.

Ones to Watch

French Open 2021 – Women’s Outright Winner

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

P.S

I’m biding my time with the ATP Madrid event this week. The 1st round matches started on Sunday, and continue today. I’ll let you know if and when I’m making any moves in the men’s Outright Winner market.

In the women’s event, at WTA Madrid, we’ve got two Ones to Watch picks playing well, and one win away from a place in the quarter finals. We have two big prices on our side: 200/1 Paula Badosa is now 33/1, and 40/1 Maria Sakkari is now 12/1.

Badosa plays today, and Sakkari plays tomorrow.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch