Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open Day 8: Leylah is the value at 28/1…
Sunday 29th May 2022
Welcome to Day 8 of your French Open 2022 daily service
Gilles Simon bowed out of his home Grand Slam for one last time yesterday. After fantastic wins in rounds one and two, the soon-to-retire Frenchman ran out of steam on Saturday afternoon. Marin Cilic swept him aside, 3-0.
No 5/1 match upset for us there then. While we’re still waiting to click into gear on the match betting front, our Outright Winner book contains four players all through to the Last 16 at attractive Each Way prices…
Daniil the dark horse…
We’ve only had one men’s outright tournament pick, and that’s Daniil Medvedev. He’ll face Cilic for a place in the quarter finals. And in terms of the Croatian, that’s a match-up where we might see some of those nervous moments from Cilic that I was talking about.
As for Medvedev, he played so well yesterday that the BBC decided to write a glowing report of the Russian’s performance against Miomir Kecmanovic. Calling him ‘relentless’ and ‘inventive.’
In my opinion, Medvedev has already franked our decision to back him as a Roland Garros dark horse at odds of 40/1, 33/1 and 28/1…
After three 3-0 wins in week one, the world no.2 looks to be gathering pace and form nicely. With the bookies who are still offering 1/2 odds Each Way for 1-2 places (as opposed to reduced terms of 1/3 odds), Medvedev is this morning trading at 18/1 at best with Bet365 and Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 16/1 with Betway, 14/1 BetVictor, 12/1 Boylesports.
As is the case with many of our Ones to Watch outsider picks as a tournament develops, we have some good prices on our side here at the French Open. And now we see what happens next…
Jess gets it done in one…
Saturday was also a good day for our sole women’s pick in the top half of the draw. Jessica Pegula beat last year’s surprise semi-finalist Tamara Zidansek, 6-1, 7-6. And this time, the American got the job done on her firstmatch point. Having needed an agonising eight match points in the last round, and a whopping 10 in the 1st round, the smile on Jessica’s face after clinching victory yesterday said it all. Much less stressful.
On our side at 66/1 and 50/1 at the start of the campaign, Pegula is now 33/1 at best with Boylesports and as short as 20/1 with Bet365. With the world no.1 Iga Swiatek in this half of the draw and on a 31-match winning streak, the bookies are now running their books with the reduced 1/3 odds place terms, across the board – barring 888 Sport who are still 1/2 odds 1-2 as I write.
If the draw follows the seedings (which is no given in women’s Grand Slams these days), then top seed Swiatek would face our 11th seed Pegula in the quarter finals. Swiatek is yet to face a seeded player.
Two very different sets of prices…
The 4th round gets underway today, with quarter-final places up for grabs. After an entertaining first week of matches, the Sunday schedule looks fascinating. We could be in for a great day of tennis…
The men’s list is completely one-sided, with four big-name, odds-on favourites. The Match Winner prices at Betway paint a very clear picture of who the underdogs are today:
Novak Djokovic 1/33 v Diego Schwartzman 11/1
Alexander Zverev 1/20 v Bernabe Zapata Miralles 9/1
Rafael Nadal 2/15 v Felix Auger-Aliassime 5/1
Carlos Alcaraz 1/25 v Karen Khachanov 10/1
The quartet of star names to all win pays around 1/4 (1.25) as a short odds-on acca. At the other end of the scale, the four upsets are 7,919/1!
It’s a very different story in the four women’s Last 16 matches taking place today, with a batch of 50-50 prices and some close-looking encounters. I’ve used the decimal odds here, to illustrate how bunched-up the match prices are:
Martina Trevisan 2.0 v Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1.91
Leylah Fernandez 2.75 v Amanda Anisimova 1.44
Elise Mertens 2.75 v Coco Gauff 1.44
Jil Belen Teichmann 1.53 v Sloane Stephens 2.63
We’ve got a big interest here, with Trevisan (100/1+) and Teichmann (50/1+) running for us as Each Way outsider picks in this wide-open bottom half of the women’s draw.
Leylah is the value at 28/1…
In terms of my idea of where the value is today, it’s a vivid choice for me and that’s Leylah Fernandez…
The Canadian teenager was my early-bird big-price pick for the French Open last year (you can read that 2021 article here). Back then, Leylah was 18 years old, ranked no.72 in the world, and yet to make any big headlines. She fell in the 2nd round in Paris. But this strong-willed youngster ended the season as a Grand Slam finalist, runner-up at the US Open. Since then, the talented left-hander has won a second WTA title (Monterrey 2022), and is now sitting at no.18 in the world.
As I said last spring, Fernandez is considered a future Grand Slam winner. A year on, and the way this women’s draw is shaping up, the future could be now…
Today’s match is a big one. The victor of Fernandez v Anisimova – who are seeded 17th and 27th respectively – will enter the quarter final as favourite against the winner of the unseeded pair of Sasnovich and our big-odds pick, Trevisan.
As with the 19-year-old Fernandez, 20-year-old Amanda Anisimova is a Ones to Watch regular, and a player that I’ve backed at big odds on several occasions before. However, as the markets are right now, I can’t be having the American at just 12/1 and 10/1 to win a maiden Major title. In comparison, Fernandez at 28/1 and 25/1 represents the best value of who’s left in the women’s draw.
Leylah has the edge over Anisimova – and also 18-year-old Coco Gauff, who is at similar 12/1 prices to her fellow American – in that the Canadian has got to a Grand Slam final before. I really like her steeliness, and I’d trust her to come through close situations more than most right now. Her final-set win over Belinda Bencic in the last round demonstrated all those fighting qualities for me. If it comes down to mental toughness at the absolute crunch moments, I’m with Leylah over Anisimova today.
That being my opinion, I’m backing Fernandez as the 7/4 underdog to win the match. And at those top prices to win the tournament.
Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places unless stated)
Fernandez v Anisimova is the first match on Court Philippe-Chatrier, at 11am.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 9 email.
Enjoy the tennis…