Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open Day 10: My 6/1 pick for Djokovic v Nadal…
Tuesday 31st May 2022
Welcome to Day 10 of your French Open 2022 daily service…
New kids on the block…
Yesterday was a day of shocks in the men’s event, with world no.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas and world no.2 Daniil Medvedev both knocked out.
If the men’s game is going to become as open as the women’s, then we’re going to be in for a lot of big-odds fun this summer, and in the seasons to come…
The changing of the guard in men’s tennis has long been discussed and anticipated. While Roger Federer and Andy Murray aren’t here, and look to be past challenging for Grand Slams now. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are still very much going strong. In fact, those two superstars meet for the 59th time in their careers today, playing for a place in the French Open semi finals – see below.
Novak turned 35 on day one of the tournament last week. And Rafa will be 36 on Friday. Time catches up with everyone eventually. Yesterday we saw a glimpse of the what the new generation can do…
Danish teenager Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune knocked out world no.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas (who is still only 23 himself). The 19-year-old Rune was 7/2 (4.5) to win the match. He’ll go on to face Norwegian 23-year-old Casper Ruud in an all-Scandinavian quarter final.
The other quarter finalists in the bottom half of the men’s Roland Garros 2022 draw are Andrey Rublev (age 24) and Marin Cilic (33). All four of those guys – Rune, Ruud, Rublev, and Cilic – will be looking to reach a first ever French Open semi final.
One day one, the Outright Winner prices for that mixture of youngsters and outsiders were:
Casper Ruud 22/1
Andrey Rublev 33/1
Holger Rune 200/1
Marin Cilic 250/1
Compare those to the starting prices for the four men left in the top half of the draw:
Novak Djokovic 2/1 (3.0)
Carlos Alcaraz 5/2 (3.5)
Rafael Nadal 4/1 (5.0)
Alexander Zverev 33/1 (34.0)
19 the magic number…
Alexander Zverev is 25 years of age. The German takes on 19-year-old Spanish phenom Carlos Alcaraz in the first of the men’s quarters final this afternoon.
Nineteen seems to be the magic number for young players breaking through at Grand Slams. The two teenagers making the most progress here at the French Open, Rune and Alcaraz, are both in that category, born in 2003.
While in the women’s event, 19-year-old Chinese newcomer Qinwen Zheng pushed world no.1 Iga Swiatek to a final set yesterday. Qinwen Zheng was born in 2002, as was our quarter finalist on the other side of the draw, Leylah Fernandez. There’s also an 18-year-old in contention for the title, with Coco Gauff not turning 19 until next March.
Day 10 business…
We’ve already done our business for today’s women’s matches. With yesterday’s analysis focusing on Sloane Stephens as an underdog bet to beat Coco Gauff this afternoon, and also going in the book as a title contender at 20/1 or 16/1. You can catch up on that article and advice here.
The bookies have actually pushed Sloane’s price out a little since yesterday, which is a different price swing than we’re used to with our Ones to Watch picks. In the Outright Winner market, Bet365 are this morning a top price 22/1 for Stephens, with 20/1 available at William Hill and 888 Sport, 18/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway. Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places.
There’s been a very slight nudge the other way in the Match Winner betting though, with Stephens highlighted at 7/4 (2.75), 17/10 (2.7) and 13/8 (2.63) yesterday. This morning Boylesports are a best-price 13/8, with William Hill 8/5 (2.6), and Skybet, BetVictor, Bet365 and Betway going 6/4 (2.5) for the American to beat her younger compatriot.
In the other women’s quarter final, which is first up on Court Philippe-Chatrier at 11am, we have two of our picks in action against each other. One of Leylah Fernandez (backed at 28/1 and 25/1) or Martina Trevisan (100/1+) will go through to the semi finals for us. In the current Outright betting, the Canadian teenager is 10/1 in general, with the 28-year-old Italian Trevisan at 33/1.
Quarter finals today – play starts 11am UK time:
Martina Trevisan v Leylah Fernandez
Coco Gauff v Sloane Stephens
Followed by:
Alexander Zverev v Carlos Alcaraz
Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal
Grab the popcorn…
Djokovic v Nadal has been given the box-office Night Session slot. Apparently, Rafa isn’t the biggest fan of playing at night. But with worldwide (US) TV audiences in mind, the French Open organisers couldn’t afford not to put this one in the biggest shop window possible – and that means the Night Session. Tune in from 7.45pm, UK time.
The head-to-head between these two Grand Slam titans is 30-28 in favour of Djokovic. The world no.1 goes off a strong favourite in the betting tonight, at 4/9 (1.44). With record 13-time Roland Garros champion Nadal touching 2/1 (3.0).
On clay, Nadal has won five of their last six meetings. Although here at the French Open, Novak beat him 3-1 in the semi finals last year.
If both men bring their A-game, then episode no.59 of the Novak-Rafa saga could be a classic…
Bet365’s ‘Go the Distance’ market offers 16/1 for the match to go right to the wire and be decided in a final-set tiebreak (eg. finish 7-6 to either player in the 5th set). That go-the-distance bet would’ve last paid out between these two in their five-set Wimbledon semi-final marathon in 2018, which Djokovic won. And before that, right back in 2013 here in Paris, when Nadal came through in ‘sudden death’ at the end of a five-set epic. Total Set = 5 is around 5/2 (3.5) today.
The crowd will be with Nadal tonight. But Djokovic can be expected to knuckle down to the task at hand…
Four of the Serbian’s last five Grand Slam quarter final victories have come via the 3-1 score-line. However, none of those five QF’s were against Rafa. It remains to be seen just how much that five-set win v Felix Auger-Aliassime took out of him in the last round. But the Spaniard never, ever, gives in without a fight.
I can see Djokovic coming through in the full five sets after a long and noisy night – and cupping his ear to the crowd when he does so…
That’s my Set Betting pick here: Djokovic 3-2 at odds of 5/1 – 6/1.
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Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Men’s quarter final:
Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal
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I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 11 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson