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Tuesday 16th May 2023

Good morning. Proof yesterday that no-one is ever unbeatable… that big-price outsiders do win… and that favourites are never guaranteed to win…

All of which are go-to mantras for you and I here at Ones to Watch…

Hats off to world no.135 Fabian Marozsan. The 23-year-old Hungarian beat world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz, 6-3, 7-6. In doing so, knocking out the hot favourite for this week’s ATP Rome title.

In the pre-match betting, Marozsan was 25/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral, 22/1 with Bet365, and 20/1 at William Hill.

Without exaggeration, those are truly some of the biggest Match Winner prices you’ll ever see in the two-horse-race of a tennis match.

In the Set Betting market, the 2-0 Marozsan score was 50/1 and 40/1. Crazy stuff…

In Sunday night’s email, I said it would take a brave man to take on Alcaraz…

We didn’t back Fabian Marozsan, but he’s certainly done us a favour by taking out the top threat in this side of the ATP Rome Masters draw…

The upshot of that shock result is that our two Outright Winner picks are now trading at much shorter prices than before Alcaraz was sent packing. Meaning we got on just in time…

Daniil Medvedev went in the book for us at 28/1, 22/1, or 20/1. He came from behind to win his 3rd round match on Monday afternoon. In this morning’s revised Outright Winner market, Medvedev was 14/1 at Ladbrokes & Coral, and 12/1 in general.

Our other selection is Lorenzo Musetti at 80/1, 66/1, and 50/1. The young Italian is due back on court around lunchtime today, with his match against Frances Tiafoe halted by rain last night. As it stands, Musetti has the lead with a break of serve in the final set, with the score at 5-7, 6-4, *2-1 (*denotes server).

Overnight, Ladbrokes & Coral chopped Musetti to 28/1, with other firms 22/1 or 20/1 in general. Let’s see if the home player can finish the job this afternoon, and join Medvedev in the Last 16.

Enjoy the tennis…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch