Tennis Betting Advice - May 2025
Ones to Watch in Rome - at 25/1 and 40/1...
Tuesday 6th May 2025
As the French Open draws ever closer, we’re off to Rome this week for another big clay-court event…
We’re on a bit of a ‘nearly’ run with our picks lately…
If you’re an avid reader of my tournament previews, then it probably hasn’t escaped your attention that over the last few weeks, I’ve ended up naming several players who went on to reach a final or win the trophy at a big price - only to skip them on the grounds of having a tough opening match, or similar…
Cases in point being Lorenzo Musetti in Monte-Carlo (runner-up at 50/1)... Holger Rune in Barcelona the week after (won the tournament at 14/1)... Jelena Ostapenko (won Stuttgart at 28/1)... and then just last week, Jack Draper in Madrid (28/1 runner-up).
Rather than getting the violins out, I’m an optimist: we’re in the right ball-park…
We’ve won big already this season, and we’re knocking on the door to do it again. And there’s still all of the summer tennis to come…
Given recent results and form, we should keep all of those four names in mind for Rome this week & next. The women’s tournament started today; the men’s kicks-off tomorrow. This joint ATP & WTA 1000-grade event runs until next weekend, Sunday 18th May.
Price being key - as well as form, and fitness, and all manner of other factors to consider. Let’s take some big odds from the off in Rome…
Before a ball is hit, the men’s event is all about the return of world no.1, Jannik Sinner. The Italian has been suspended for the last three months. He’ll have big home support here. But how match-sharp will he be after that time away? At odds of just 5/2 (3.5) at best and 9/4 (3.25) or 2/1 (3.0) in general, I won’t be risking any shillings to find out.
The Ones to Watch way is to back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
Here we go…
Odds of 25/1 look a bit harsh on CASPER RUUD here. The Norwegian is a two-time French Open runner-up (no shame in losing to all-time greats Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in those Roland Garros finals).
What’s more, Casper has made the semi finals here at the Foro Italico, three times in his last four visits.
He won Madrid last week at 18/1 (another ATP Masters 1000 event on clay). On the one hand, playing again the next week could be seen as a big ask. But on the other hand, form and confidence is there, and these new longer Masters events give the top players more time to recover between tournaments/ matches. Ruud is the 6th seed, and as such gets a bye through to the 2nd round.
Considering the 26-year-old world no.7 is just 12/1 in general and 16/1 at best to win this month’s upcoming French Open. I’d say 25/1 has to be worth taking here in Rome.
Ruud is one of the best clay-court players around. Granted, he’s in the same half of the Rome draw as Sinner, and has yet to beat the Italian - but then again, Sinner may well not be in top form if they do face each other here. The head-to-head is 4-0 to Sinner - but they’ve yet to meet on clay…
For me, this is one of those selections where my initial reaction to the prices was: that’s bigger than I expected. In comparison to the 25/1 available, Unibet are just 8/1 for Ruud.
While the aforementioned Jack Draper is 20/1 and 16/1 in general, which are shorter prices than his two Masters-final runs this year (won Indian Wells at 33/1, runner-up in Madrid at 28/1). Fellow Ones to Watch name HOLGER RUNE is 28/1. The young Dane got to the final here in Rome in 2023 - beating Ruud in the semis. As reported in this column more than once already this year, Holger appears to be a bit in and out with his health. When he’s on it though, he’s the real deal. And the 22-year-old world no.10 has a habit of playing his best tennis and getting his best results at Masters 1000 level. I was anticipating a shorter price than 28/1 - so we’ll take the big quote.
Our early-bird 100/1 French Open pick, LORENZO MUSETTI also warrants support at 33/1. After an injury scare in the Monte-Carlo final, we swerved the swashbuckling Italian for Madrid. He went on to make the semi finals in Spain last week, from a starting price of 40/1. With form and motivation on his side - as with all the Italian players, Lorenzo will be roared on by a vociferous crowd here in Rome - Musetti’s motivation will surely be high here. The 23-year-old world no.9 has gone final & semi final in this spring’s two clay-court Masters events to date…
In the women’s field, another of those recent ‘nearly’ names for us to follow this time is JELENA OSTAPENKO at 40/1…
The Latvian is notoriously hit-or-miss. We had her as a teenager when she won the French Open 2017 at 100/1. That remains the 27-year-old’s only Grand Slam title (or final) to date. But Jelena is as dangerous as ever when on song, capable of thundering the ball past any opponent, and firing off sizzling winners and returns - seemingly at will.
The world no.18 has shown promise here in Rome before, with two quarter finals and a semi final from her last four visits. And that venue-specific form could be significant this fortnight…
In Stuttgart last month, after winning her 1st-round match Ostapenko said that she liked the courts there. She went on to lift the trophy, beating four-time French Open champ Iga Swiatek along the way…
Ostapenko is now 6-0 in the career head-to-head v Swiatek. The Polish world no.2 is defending champion here in Rome, and has won this trophy three times in her last four visits to the Italian capital. But given the intimidating head-to-head, Iga won’t want to face Jelena again here. They’re in the same half of the draw, as a possible semi-final encounter…
While Swiatek was a general 2/1 in this morning’s opening market. Ostapenko was 40/1 with several firms, including Bet365 and Skybet. The Outright prices will reappear here once tonight’s women’s matches are finished. But as I write, Betway have their prices online, and the 40/1 is there…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Rome - Internazionali BNL d'Italia:
Casper Ruud @ 25/1 Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports
Holger Rune @ 28/1 Skybet, Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, 25/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
Lorenzo Musetti @ 33/1 Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, 30/1 BetVictor, 28/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill
WTA Rome - Internazionali BNL d'Italia:
Play starts on Wednesday from 10am, UK time.
Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.
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P.S
I’ll also keep you posted with any further selections for Rome. Any other picks will be sent out in the evenings, this week or next…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone