Tennis Betting Advice - May 2025
French Open: Double bounce at 33/1...
Thursday 29th May 2025
This French Open women’s draw is as fascinating as ever…
I can’t help but treat big tournament fields like this as puzzles to solve. Jigsaws to click together. The winning name is in there somewhere…
Tuesday’s Ones to Watch email discussed a dozen or so players. That phrase once more: we can’t back them all…
A total of 128 ladies went off on day one last weekend. We’ve so far backed four, representing a modest 3% of the field. With two left standing as we approach the end of week one: Elina Svitolina (40/1 - 28/1), and 18-year-old Victoria Mboko (200/1+).
While we’re talking percentages, here’s a big one that catches the eye:
Five such Majors have been played since the start of last year. And across those, five women have made the finals at odds of 33/1 or bigger. We were on three of them:
Qinwen Zheng 33/1 Each Way runner-up - Australian Open 2024
Jasmine Paolini 150/1 Each Way runner-up - French Open 2024
Madison Keys 100/1 Winner - Australian Open 2025
While Paolini and Zheng are both around the 14/1 - 16/1 mark for the current French Open. MADISON KEYS at 33/1 - 28/1 appeals to me today. And here’s why…
It’s been done before…
January’s Aussie Open success was a first Grand Slam title for Keys. As we’ve seen many times over the years, it’s completely normal to see a ‘slump’ in the immediate aftermath of such a life-changing result. Suddenly, everyone wants an interview. You’ve got a new target on your back as a Grand Slam champion (everyone wants to beat you…). And you’re thrown in the hat as a favourite to win next time, and the tournament after that…
To Maddie’s credit, her post-Melbourne drop-off is hardly much of a slump at all. No trophies. But no shame in defeat, either…
Since Australia, the American, now 30 years old and no.8 in the world, has played five tournaments. Reaching the semi finals at Indian Wells on hard courts, and the quarter finals in Madrid on clay. Both high-ranking WTA 1000-grade events. Only beaten in those by the world’s top two players: Aryna Sabalenka, and Iga Swiatek. Keys avoids both of those in this bottom half of the draw. She beat both in Australia. Madison can’t meet either Aryna or Iga until the final here in Paris next week…
That appealing draw-sheet makes the current Keys prices for Roland Garros appealing to me today, on merit. The American is the bookies’ short favourite to beat Britain’s Katie Boulter this afternoon.
On one hand, it’s a big ask for Keys to do it again on the biggest stage, not so long after the big, big breakthrough Down Under. But I’ve just watched the highlights of her 1st round French Open match this week, and all the good signs were there: the thumping forehand, the deep, powerful and accurate hitting, a dominant 6-2, 6-1 score-line, and no visible injury tape…
Keys has shown her Roland Garros credentials before. Reaching the semi finals back in 2018, and the quarter finals in 2019. More recently, Maddie won WTA Strasbourg on clay last spring.
A potential all-American quarter final is a real possibility in this section of the draw. Should it pan out this way, Keys has a 3-2 career head-to-head record against world no.2 and one of the favourites for the trophy, Coco Gauff. The older player beat Coco on clay in Madrid last season, and that was their most recent meeting.
And in reference to the heading above, there are some recent examples of players backing up a maiden Major win, with another final the very same season: it’s been done before…
In 2016, Angelique Kerber won the Australian Open. She went on to reach the Wimbledon final, and then win the US Open, the same summer…
In 2020, Sofia Kenin won Australia for us at 50/1. Later that year (after a Covid delay), Kenin made the French Open final at the same price…
And just last season… our pal Jasmine Paolini made the French Open 2024 final at 150/1 - and then went on to the very next ‘Slam and finished a 66/1 runner-up at Wimbledon…
Keys’ self-belief will be higher now than it ever was in her previous visits to these big tournaments. We’ll add her to the book today.
Bouncing back…
On the opposite side of the draw, one name I keep finding myself going back to this week is ELENA RYBAKINA…
The 2022 Wimbledon champ and former world no.3 is on something of a comeback trail right now. There have been plenty of column inches debating her coaching choices. Injuries have also played a significant part. But the current world no.11 is looking like a ‘sleeper’ name in this year’s French Open…
Rybakina arrived in Paris on the back of lifting the trophy in Strasbourg; the 25-year-old’s first WTA title since Stuttgart (also on clay) last April. I’ve since seen Elena blast through the opening two rounds here at Roland Garros, and completely agreed when the commentator called last night’s latest 2-0 win an ‘elegant’ performance.
Long-time readers will know I like to keep an ear out for a potentially meaningful or prophetic quote. Rybakina tends to be a poker-face kind of character, keeping her cards close to her chest. But after some time in the doldrums, I’m sensing some quiet optimism and confidence in her recent comments…
Before arriving in Paris from Strasbourg the other day, Rybakina hinted at her prospects for the French Open in this interview with WTA Tennis:
She’s feeling physically good. The form is returning. Right now, Rybakina is on a six-match winning streak. You need a bit of luck sometimes, too. Maybe the withdrawal of Belinda Bencic - originally scheduled as a tricky-looking 1st-round opponent here - was just the thing to tip Elena into a contender in this field. The Kazakh took advantage, beating Bencic’s replacement, the qualifier Julia Riera, in three sets. If that match was a pipe-opener for Rybakina here in Paris, then the 2nd round was a statement of intent: an impressive 6-3, 6-3 display against upcoming teenage talent, Iva Jovic.
Should Elena get past former Roland Garros winner and fellow big hitter Jelena Ostapenko on Friday (head-to-head: 3-2 to Rybakina, 1-0 on clay). A likely meeting with reigning champion Iga Swiatek would be on the cards. A tough ask, to say the least, yes. But it wasn’t that long ago at all that Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina were being described as the ‘Big Three’ in women’s tennis. Elena has beaten Iga before - five times in fact (5-4, and 2-0 on clay).
I like Keys and Rybakina around the 33/1 - 28/1 bracket here. The market may be placing too much emphasis on the ‘clay court’ factor. In comparison, Rybakina is no bigger than 12/1 for any of the next three Grand Slams on the calendar, and just 6/1 for the next one this summer (Wimbledon). Likewise for Keys, whose French Open 2025 price is bigger than any of her quotes for the upcoming Majors.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Madison Keys @ 33/1 Boylesports, Bet365, 888 Sport, Betfred, 28/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway
Elena Rybakina @ 33/1 Boylesports, 28/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway
Already in the book - open bets:
Lorenzo Musetti (Men’s)
Tommy Paul (Men’s)
Elina Svitolina (Women’s)
Victoria Mboko (Women’s)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back next week with your next French Open update.
P.S
Want to get in touch? My new email address is:
oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone