Tennis Betting Advice - May 2025
French Open: Remember the first time at 400/1...
Tuesday 27th May 2025
I’ve got another big-odds women’s Grand Slam stat for you today…
In the build-up to this week’s French Open, we talked about the recent history of upsets and surprise finalists at the women’s Majors - and particularly here in Paris at Roland Garros…
Those remarkable numbers again:
14 of the last 20 women's Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at odds of 33/1+
7 of the last 18 women's Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ champion
12 of the last 35 women’s Grand Slam finalists started the tournament as 100/1+ outsiders
5 of the last 10 women’s French Open finalists have gone off at 100/1 or bigger
And let’s add another outsider angle in to the mix:
I’m using that ‘maiden Major finalist’ stat to help us eliminate a few big-odds names from the women’s French Open 2025 list today. Ahead of the 2nd round which starts on Wednesday…
So, while the likes of 29-year-old world no.15, Barbora Krejcikova (reigning Wimbledon champion @ 225/1, and 2021 French Open champ @ 175/1) has some romantic appeal on her injury comeback. And also ticks the box as one of the Czech women that we like to look out for…
Likewise, another triple-figure odds Wimbledon winner, and former 40/1 Roland Garros finalist - both Ones to Watch picks at the time - fellow Czech and also on the injury comeback this fortnight, 25-year-old world no.96, Marketa Vondrousova…
With odds well in excess of 100/1 available for those two ladies as I write right now…
Not to mention our friend Madison Keys (100/1 and 80/1 when we backed the American for a maiden Major win in Australia in January) - the 30-year-old world no.8 is more like 33/1 here…
With similar 33/1 quotes on the table for yet another former 100/1 Wimbledon champ looking to recover some bigtime form, current world no.11, 25-year-old Kazakhstan representative, Elena Rybakina (on a five-match winning streak on clay right now, having won WTA Strasbourg last week)...
And then there’s the 100/1 French Open winner from 2017, Jelena Ostapenko. The 27-year-old world no.21 hasn’t been past the Roland Garros 3rd round in seven attempts since then. But the Latvian won WTA Stuttgart on (indoor) clay at 28/1 last month, beating French Open favourite Iga Swiatek along the way, extending her head-to-head record over Swiatek to an intimidating 6-0 (and they could meet again here, both placed in the 2nd quarter of the draw)...
I am inclined to repeat a phrase we often come to in these Grand Slam 128-competitor fields: you can’t back them all…
Going back to that Grand Slam final/ debutant nugget…
Alternative, big-odds candidates for us to consider here in Paris this week - women looking to reach a Major championship trophy match for the very first time…
Svitolina’s quest…
Another Ones to Watch name to get behind, also looking for a first final at the top table, is ELINA SVITOLINA…
I discussed the 30-year-old Ukrainian in depth in a recent Notes from the Tour article: ‘Elina in search of a Major breakthrough’ (read it here).
Since that piece a couple of weeks back, world no.14 Svitolina completed her French Open prep with a 12-2 win-loss record on clay in 2025. Including a WTA title win in Rouen, along with a pair of strong showings at ‘Masters’ 1000 level this spring: semi finals in Madrid, quarter finals in Rome…
Elina has made the last eight here at Roland Garros on four previous occasions. Most recently in the French Open quarter finals in 2023, marking her out as one of our ‘mothers most likely’ to go deep and challenge at the upcoming Majors…
From odds of 25/1 in general earlier this month when we discussed Svitolina’s quest to win a Grand Slam for the first time, her Paris 2025 price has now drifted to more like 33/1 - with Betfred at 40/1…
Considering that Elina romped to a 6-1, 6-1 win in the 1st round over the opening weekend, moving to 13-2 on clay for the year. And holds a 4-0 career head-to-head record over potential upcoming opponent Donna Vekic (the 28-year-old Croatian world no.19 herself a possible dark horse here, 300/1 and 200/1 and places, and a finalist at this venue during the Paris Olympics last summer - name-checked in my ‘28 Club’ list earlier this season). Let’s take Svitolina today in the top half of the draw…
Elsewhere, Ones to Watch youngsters Clara Tauson (Denmark, age 22, world no.22) and Amanda Anisimova (USA, age 23, world no.16) both have credentials when it comes to potential outsiders making a Grand Slam final for the first time here at this French Open (both available at 100/1). But they could well end up facing each other in the 3rd round, which puts me off somewhat. With the victor of that clash - should it pan out that way - seeded to then take on world no.1, Aryna Sabalenka.
Teenage rising star at 200/1+...
Teenagers to look out for include 18-year-old VICTORIA MBOKO (Canada, world no.120), and Sara Bejlik (Czech, age 19, world no.188). Both of them came through the qualifying rounds to reach the 1st round proper here, and move on to round two this week. Odds of 200/1+ are available in each case…
At a huge price, I have to flag up Mboko as a proper Ones to Watch, teenage pick here…
The 18-year-old has quietly built up a head of steam, winning 41 out of 46 matches at all levels so far this year (an eye-catching 89% win-rate). Granted, most of those victories were in the lower echelons of the ITF/ WTA Tours, as the youngster looks to climb the ladder. But you can’t put a price on form, confidence, and momentum…
Here on the clay courts of Roland Garros, Mboko has won four out of four matches since last week; three in a row in qualifying, and then the 1st round proper - all in straight sets, 2-0 each time. She’s one to watch. It’s as simple as that. We’ll take the giant odds. As we always say with exciting newcomers and rising stars: we want to be on the big odds, while we can still get them…
In the bottom half of the draw, we’ll bide our time for a bit - and see if it looks on course for the anticipated ‘popcorn’ semi-final of 18-year-old Russian world no.6 Mirra Andreeva (just 5/1 for a first Major title) against 21-year-old American world no.2 Coco Gauff (5/1 for a first French Open trophy). We still have plenty of time to get involved there.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Elina Svitolina @ 40/1 Betfred, 33/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, Boylesports, also 33/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (1/3 odds Each Way), 28/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral
Victoria Mboko @ 400/1 Skybet, 375/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (1/3 odds Each Way), or 300/1 Betfred, 250/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 200/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, 888 Sport
Already in the book - open bets:
Lorenzo Musetti (Men’s)
Tommy Paul (Men’s)
Diana Shnaider (Women’s)
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I’ll be back on Thursday with your next French Open bulletin…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone