Tennis Betting Advice - May 2025
French Open: Ones to Watch picks at 66/1 and 100/1...
Friday 23rd May 2025
I’ve got that feeling again…
The eve of a Grand Slam is always an exciting time. Full of promise. Full of opportunities.
Tennis tournaments don’t come any bigger than this…
The French Open starts in Paris on Sunday, and runs for the next two weeks…
The famed Roland Garros courts won’t be seeing Rafael Nadal anymore; the king of clay, a record 14-time champion here, is now retired. That means the 2025 men’s field has to be more open than it was during Rafa’s epic reign…
That said, the current top two are genuine world-class players, to put it lightly…
World no.1 Jannik Sinner made the semis here last year, and the 23-year-old Italian is second-favourite in the betting, at 2/1 (3.0).
Defending champion and world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz is the bookies’ outright favourite at 6/5 (2.2). The 22-year-old Spaniard’s upwards trajectory at Roland Garros has been as follows: quarter final 2022… semi final 2023… and then final & winner 2024.
Bet365 will give you odds of 12/5 (3.4) for the Sinner-Alcaraz ‘Name the Finalists’ combo. Neutrals and tennis fans alike would no doubt love to see a first Major final between those two young men.
But cheering on short-odds favourites is not what your Ones to Watch service is about…
Our mantra remains proudly and defiantly the same as ever:
In the tournament Outright Winner markets, we go after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. That’s the Ones to Watch way. It’s how we play. And we don’t just do it because we love underdogs and big odds. We do it because there is repeated evidence that the fancied names don’t always get to the finals - and that outsiders can indeed punch through the draw at giant prices…
Musetti in the book - and arrives in good form…
While the men’s French Open 2025 has Alcaraz and Sinner as the clear top two, we also should note that this new era of dominance - if it is that - is yet to scale the heights of the recent Big Four era. And with Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray all now retired from the sport - and 38-year-old third-favourite Novak Djokovic failing to win any of the last five Grand Slams (a barren run by his previously stratospheric standards). The door does feel more ajar than it has for many years…
We’re on LORENZO MUSETTI as an early-bird pick. We got on the talented Italian as a 100/1 shot, right back in November last year (original article here). He’s now up to a career-high ranking of no.8 in the world, having gone final, semi final, and then semi final again in his last three tournaments - all on clay, all at Masters 1000 level. Only the Grand Slams are bigger…
A Wimbledon semi-finalist on the grass last summer, the feeling has always been that Musetti’s mixture of flair, power, shot variety, and one-handed backhand, can come together best on clay. Now could be his chance.
Lorenzo has been trading at 33/1 for the last couple of months. Since the French Open draw was made on Thursday, placing him in the bottom half of the field, where he’ll avoid the likes of Sinner, Djokovic, world no.3 and last year’s Roland Garros runner-up Alexander Zverev, as well as 5th seed Jack Draper. Musetti’s price has been further trimmed to 25/1 and 22/1. Yes, Alcaraz is in the bottom half of the draw. But the overall feeling is that this is the better side to be in from day one. Musetti can’t meet Carlos until the semi finals.
Tommy can go far at a big price…
In terms of an underdog to get behind today - with the big odds still on the table - then the man for me before a ball is hit is TOMMY PAUL. Price is key here, and we can get 125/1 or 100/1 for the American with a few firms today (see below for bookies). We’ve discussed Paul’s ‘quiet man’ status before, along with his lowkey, Grand Slam dark horse potential.
Having just turned 28 years of age, Tommy slots into the ‘28 Club’ territory that we’ve mentioned several times before. It’s a good age for it all to come together, mixing peak physical fitness with experience and maturity.
Americans don’t naturally spring to mind as clay-court title contenders, but Paul won the French Open Boys’ title in 2015…
Tommy’s at home on the clay, warming up nicely for Paris by reaching the semi finals at the Rome Masters this month, only beaten by no.1 Sinner, in a match that took the full three sets.
The world no.12 is a consistent performer, and a great mover around the court. Paul has shown the ability to both dig-in and also to shine at Grand Slam, best-of-five-sets level before, too. Reaching the Australian Open semi finals in 2023 (and the quarters again this year)... the Wimbledon quarter finals last summer… and the last 16 of the US Open, two seasons running.
Paul could come up against Karen Khachanov and/ or Casper Ruud in his section of the draw. Tommy has a useful 2-0 head-to-head record v Khachanov, and pushed two-time Roland Garros runner-up Ruud all the way to five sets here back in 2020. Paul has improved and surged up the rankings since then.
While Khachanov also has some dark-horse potential at 100/1+ in general, the Russian is 0-5 against Alcaraz, who is the big name in this half of the draw. And 0-2 v Paul and also 0-2 v Ruud.
Casper Ruud is a player we’ve supported several times before, but at odds of 28/1 at best (Ladbrokes & Coral) and more like 22/1 in general, he doesn’t get my pulse racing as a big-odds upset contender here. If someone’s going to get to the final from the chasing pack, I want bigger odds. We’ll take Tommy Paul in that respect.
Beatriz is back in business…
The women’s Grand Slams have long been ripe for big-odds picking…
After our 100/1 shot Madison Keys won her maiden Major at the Australian Open in January, here’s an update on the women’s stats I posted in your pre-season Ones to Watch 2025 Report in December:
14 of the last 20 women's Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at odds of 33/1+
7 of the last 18 women's Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ champion
And 12 of the last 35 women’s Grand Slam finalists started the tournament as 100/1+ outsiders
Those remarkable numbers are backed-up by particularly strong big-odds evidence here at the French Open. As reported in Monday’s email:
With that in mind, we will continue to enthusiastically shoot for the stars…
On Monday, we got on BEATRIZ HADDAD MAIA as a 100/1+ ‘complete outsider’ (full article here). It looks like we got on the 28-year-old at a good time. The Brazilian has since won two more matches on the clay, and plays in the WTA Strasbourg semi finals today - having started the week as a 66/1 underdog for that tournament.
Considering she posted a nine-match losing streak earlier this season, Haddad Maia is definitely an underdog bet. But that’s what we specialise in…
What’s more, yesterday’s French Open women’s draw was as kind as it could have been for the 2023 semi-finalist…
Beatriz is in the bottom half, meaning she avoids the two big favourites, world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka and reigning champ Iga Swiatek, until the final. And if our 100/1 shot does happen to spring a big upset and get to the final, then we’ll be all smiles on the Each Way front, whoever she faces.
Lots of tennis to be played, of course. But the bottom half is the place to be, on paper, from day one in this women’s 2025 Roland Garros draw. Teenager Mirra Andreeva and world no.2 Coco Gauff are both looking to win this thing for the first time, and are priced at just 6/1 and 5/1 to do so, respectively.
While the leading names are even shorter, Sabalenka at 5/2 (3.5) and Swiatek at 7/2 (4.5) - and remember, only one of those two can get to the final.
Shnaider has no fear…
This being Ones to Watch, we want to make sure we’re on an exciting youngster at a big price, too. Getting the big odds before they go on to potentially become a household name…
DIANA SHNAIDER is one to follow in that department. The 21-year-old Russian is already up to no.11 in the world. And since I put her on the list in our Ones to Watch 2024 Report ahead of last season, the bandana-wearing left-hander has won four WTA titles. Most recently, she showed form by getting to the quarter finals on clay in Rome this month; only beaten in three sets by eventual champion, Jasmine Paolini.
One of the things I’ve liked about Shnaider since I first saw her play is her fighting mentality. She doesn’t look scared to take on the big players. She wants to beat them..
That kind of belief and attitude counts for a lot. It’s the kind of mindset that saw our 50/1 pick Sofia Kenin blast through the field and win a maiden Major at the Aussie Open back in 2020. We’ll take 66/1 or 50/1 for Diana Shnaider here.
Diana pushed Swiatek to the full three sets on clay in Madrid last month. She’s yet to face Sabalenka. Shnaider is in the top half of the draw with those two favourites here. But I like her underdog chances to give anyone a tough match…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Already in the book:
Lorenzo Musetti (Men’s)
Beatriz Haddad Maia (Women’s)
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This being a two-week tournament, we have plenty of time to make more moves, once play is underway. The 1st round matches are scheduled for Sunday - Tuesday. I’ll be back with your next French Open email on Tuesday.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone