Notes from the Tour: Elina in search of the Major breakthrough...

Thursday 8th May 2025

Elina Svitolina has won nine out of 10 matches on clay this season…

That 90% win rate makes Svitolina the top women’s performer on the red dirt right now…

The 30-year-old world no.14 won the WTA 250 Rouen title in France last month. Then backed that up by getting to the semi finals of a much bigger tournament, the WTA 1000 Madrid Open…

Svitolina was only stopped in Madrid by Aryna Sabalenka. World no.1 Sabalenka went on to take that title, and extend her own clay-court match win-loss record in 2025 to 8-1 (89%).

Sabalenka is a solid 3/1 second favourite for the French Open at the end of the month - the only Major played on clay…

World no.2, four-time winner & three-time defending Roland Garros champion, Iga Swiatek is the bookies’ 6/4 (2.5) favourite for Paris…

In comparison, Elina Svitolina at 25/1 in general (33/1 with Unibet & co…), certainly holds some outsider appeal for the former world no.3. Although given the Ukrainian’s struggles to get to a Grand Slam final, that price isn’t big enough to tempt me in right now…

As I reported in March’s Mums on Tour piece, Svitolina is the highest ranked mother on the WTA Tour. She’s now won two titles since returning to the sport - both on clay. But despite all the great work she’s put in, and plenty of fighting spirit, the Major dream still eludes Elina…

A former Ones to Watch name right back in my 2017 report. Svitolina’s overall Grand Slam ‘best showings’ record is as follows:

Australian Open = 3 x Quarter Finals (most recent 2025)

French Open = 4 x Quarter Finals (most recent 2023)

Wimbledon = 2 x Semi Finals (most recent 2023), Quarter Final 2024

US Open = Semi Final 2019, Quarter Final 2021

That’s a total of three semi finals and nine quarter finals; a commendable CV that many top players would be rightly proud of… but yet, still the goal remains. Can she win a big one?

Price is part of the problem here. When Svitolina made the French Open quarters in 2023, she went off as a 150/1 rank outsider. Ahead of getting to the Wimbledon semis that summer, Elina was 100/1+ in the Outright Winner market for SW19…

Compare those giant odds to this year’s Grand Slam prices. And my point is made clear…

Svitolina is 25/1 in general for the French Open, 40/1 for Wimbledon (Unibet again at outlier, at 90/1), and 66/1 for the US Open (80/1 Unibet and other firms with the same sportsbook: BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet).

Before the start of January’s Australian Open, where she made the quarter finals of a Major once again, Svitolina was 100/1+ in general.

Call me bloody-minded, but I stick to my guns when it comes to price.

It’s never too late for the big breakthrough to come. And at age 30, Svitolina is in great shape and has plenty of tennis still to play…

But I’d rather be on a young gun making their first moves in a Major - or a 100/1 shot with juice in the price - and ideally both…

And we’ve got one of those in the book already…

Our Ones to Watch, 100/1 early-bird men’s French Open 2025 pick, Lorenzo Musetti is now up to a new career-high ranking of no.9 in the world. On clay, the 23-year-old Italian has won 10 out of 12 matches so far this year - an 83% win rate that puts him second only to reigning French Open champ, Carlos Alcaraz…

While world no.3 Alcaraz is the 5/4 (2.25) favourite to retain his Roland Garros crown. Our 100/1 ante-post selection Musetti is now trading at 33/1 in general (40/1 with Unibet & co)...

Stay tuned for more big-odds, Ones to Watch names in the weeks ahead…

P.S
Not a full Ones to Watch member yet? Get your hands on ALL my big-odds, Each Way, tournament picks. With the French Open coming up. As well as Wimbledon and the US Open this summer. Get onboard here…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch