Tennis Betting Advice - May 2026
One to Watch for Roland Garros at 50/1...
Tuesday 12th May 2026
Three months ago, to the day, we made our first ante-post pick of 2026. With Karolina Muchova going in the book as an early-bird selection for Wimbledon this summer at odds of 50/1 Each Way (get the full details on that one here).
Today, I want us to take the large-looking 50/1 quotes for another highly rated, extremely experienced player. This time for the upcoming women’s French Open…
An against-the-grain pick for the French Open…
It seems strange to say that backing the world’s no.5-ranked player is an underdog move. But the bookies almost unanimously agree that JESSICA PEGULA is an outsider for Roland Garros in Paris, on the clay…
Indeed, it would be easy to scoff and say – I don’t know – something along the lines of, why are you backing an American player who’s clearly better known for her results on hard courts, and who’s only senior career trophy win in Europe was on grass?
Well, if you’re new to Ones to Watch, or maybe just need a refresher of our long-entrenched mentality: we always do things differently. We don’t back the favourites. We’re always on the lookout for a player and price where the odds and circumstances might just be more in our favour that the wider market and the mainstream media suggest…
In the Outright Winner markets for tennis tournaments, we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. That’s what we do. And the mantra has remained the same for getting on 15 years now...
Yes, Jessica Pegula has won way, way more matches on hard courts than on the clay. The match-win stats stand at 326 on hard courts, compared to 139 on clay – should you ask. On the other hand, the 32-year-old American has played more hard-court events in her long and distinguished career than she has on clay – as it is for pretty much every North American player on the circuit.
Where it would be wrong – lazy, even – is to assume that Jess can’t play on clay. We’re talking about a serious pro, who has won big titles, and gone deep at big events (including a French Open quarter final in 2022). We’re not talking about a casual player like me (!), who used to climb the fence at his village club in order to get on the two hard courts they had… who only dreamt of playing on a ‘posh’ grass court, sat watching Wimbledon in his bedroom on balmy summer evenings... and had never even set foot on a clay court until adulthood, on holiday in Spain…
Anyway, I digress. Pegula’s form on clay right here, right now, in mainland Europe, says the world no.5 has a better chance of going well in Paris later this month and into June, than odds of 50/1 suggest…
Jess can play on clay, okay…
Pegula is so far played 10, won 9 on clay in 2026. Should Jess make that 10 out of 11 tomorrow by beating four-time French Open champion, Iga Swiatek, in the WTA Rome quarter finals – well, then the cat might be out of the bag. That 50/1 Roland Garros offering might see more than a nibble. Should the American go all the way to the title in the Italian capital this week, then her Paris price may well get chopped in half in the build-up to the clay-court Grand Slam, which starts on 24th May.
The head-to-head between Pegula and Swiatek is 5-6 in favour of the Polish player. Although only one of their previous meetings was on clay, with Iga beating Jess at the French Open back in 2022, going on to win the title.
Jess has troubled Iga before with her consistent, accurate hitting and ball-pace redirection. And that is significant, because current world no.3 and former no.1 Swiatek is the 3/1 second favourite for Roland Garros 2026, behind current no.1 Aryna Sabalenka (who has already been knockout out of Rome and has hinted at an injury niggle with her lower back).
Pegula is a bona-fide Top 5 player, and these days, that means you should be considered a genuine contender at all of the big tournaments, across all playing surfaces…
All-court sport…
Tennis in the modern age is much more of an all-court sport than a few decades back, when you would have a real distinction and divide between the players who could perform best on grass at SW19 every summer, and those who could slip & slide their way around the clay courts of Roland Garros.
If pub-talk ever gets on to tennis with someone who recalls that age (and it’s happened to me more than once), then bat them off with examples like these, should the ‘Americans on clay? No sir…’ card get played:
The reigning women’s French Open champion is an American, Coco Gauff. Coco also made the semi finals in 2024 and 2021. And prior to her 2025 success in Paris, Gauff’s eight full-level WTA titles had all come on hard courts (six outdoors, two indoors)…
Here in this column, we were on another USA player, Sofia Kenin, at big odds when she made the Roland Garros final in 2020. Kenin’s five titles on the tour have all come on other surfaces, hard courts (four) and grass (one).
In search of a maiden Major…
What’s more, as Pegula continues her quest to win a maiden Major title, having come closest when finished runner-up on hard courts at the US Open in 2024. A player winning their first Grand Slam title on what is deemed a ‘surprise’ playing surface is certainly not without precedent. Ash Barty’s first ‘Slam came at the French Open (2019), for instance. At the time, that was Barty’s fifth title on the tour – and her very first on clay. Ash was always thought of as more suited to grass, and she went on to win Wimbledon (and also the Australian Open on hard courts).
We’ve commented many times in recent years on Pegula’s ability to turn up and go deep at the biggest events on the calendar. She really has been knocking on the door, and Jess’ 2026 form says she’s playing as well as ever right now. In her current streak in Rome, on clay, she is yet to drop a set, with three of the six sets she’s played won by the 6-0 ‘bagel’ scoreline. It’s dominant stuff.
Age 32, Pegula shows no signs of letting up in her goal to win a Grand Slam title. Coming close at each of the last two:
Australian Open 2026 – Semi Final
US Open 2025 – Semi Final
Pegula has two career clay-court titles to her name. The case against Jess would point out that they both came at WTA Charleston in the States, and those clay courts are not the terre battue that you’ll find in France. Okay, so if you take out last month’s Charleston’s triumph, Pegula’s 2026 clay match win-loss still reads 4-1 in her favour, with the only defeat coming to a surging Marta Kostyuk in Madrid (where the young Ukrainian went on to win the first WTA 1000 title of her career).
Pegula’s price appeals…
I keep coming back to Pegula’s 50/1 price-tag for the 2026 French Open…
In comparison, the market currently has the likes of Gauff at 9/1, and Marta Kostyuk at 25/1.
With another Ones to Watch youngster, Mirra Andreeva at 8/1, playing great stuff on clay this spring, going: Final (won), Semi Final, Final (runner-up). And now into the Quarter Final at Rome, where the Russian teenager will face Gauff in a big match this evening. Incidentally, the head-to-head going into today’s contest is 4-0 to Coco, with three of those wins coming on clay (will it be a case of, nobody beats Mirra Andreeva five times in a row?).
Finally, if you need more convincing, or simply want to expand your tennis knowledge further. Then I highly recommend this intriguing article from the blog of former player, Andrea Petkovic; find out first-hand from an ex-pro – why Jessica Pegula is so hard to play against.
The top of the women’s French Open 2026 Outright Winner market – William Hill:
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
French Open 2026 – Women’s
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone