Tennis Betting Advice - November 2022
ATP Finals - take this outsider at 16/1...
Wednesday 16th November 2022
It all came down to the final set last night - and in the end we got a bit of tension & drama, and the result that we wanted…
Casper Ruud beat Taylor Fritz, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6. Landing both our Match Winner bet on Ruud, and our latest Tiebreak in the Match pick.
Three days in and with six singles matches played, the ATP Finals in Turin have now produced:
It’s official: the HawkEye stats team are saying that these Turin indoor hard courts are playing the fastest of the year. The bookies are starting to cotton on to the Tiebreak trend now - but they haven’t chopped the odds as much as I was anticipating…
Tsitsipas v Medvedev tonight…
Considering the conditions, and that five of the last six meetings between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev have featured a Tiebreak. The evening match between those two is the one I’m targeting for another 7-6 set score today.
This is also an important match in the Red Group. Both men lost their opening fixtures, but both can still turn it around and qualify for the semi finals over the next few days. Even defeat tonight wouldn’t yet spell elimination.
With Casper Ruud already confirmed as winner of the Green Group, and Novak Djokovic looking very much on course to win the Red Group, going on how he played in his opener. That means the second-place qualification spots are going to be interesting - and it’s all to play for ahead of today’s action…
Stef the outsider at 16/1…
With this morning’s tournament Outright Winner prices in mind, as well as the fact that I reckon Tsitsipas is in good form, and edging close to a really big performance. The 24-year-old Greek, who won this prestigious event in 2019 (in London), is a player I fancy for a speculative outsider bet here…
Right now, Stef is bottom of the list, priced at 16/1 with a couple of firms, and 14/1 in general. If he manages to get out of this group to make the semis, those odds are going to look good.
The bookies are largely betting Win Only now. I’d recommend staking accordingly. For example, a usual Ones to Watch Outright Winner bet would be Each Way (eg. 2 points total stake). So I’d say half that for this Win Only wager, eg. 1 pt at 16/1 or 14/1. It’s up to you though, of course.
In the run-up to Turin, Tsitsipas has played well indoors, with some consistent results - reaching two finals and a semi from four events since the start of October. His two most recent losses have both come against an up-for-it and in-form Djokovic. Granted, they could meet again in the final if it goes that way. But 16s or 14s would be a great ticket to have in hand in any case…
Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Finals, play starts 1pm
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Live streaming on bookie sites inc. Bet365, Skybet
Outright Winner (Win Only):
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Daniil Medvedev, 8pm
Note: some bookies call this market ‘Tiebreak in the Match.’ Others call it ‘Total Tiebreaks Over 0.5.’
P.S
Yesterday’s ATP Challenger match bet on Max Hans Rehberg was void with the bookies that I recommended (he retired in the second set). Read more on bookie tennis rules here.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson