Tennis Betting Advice - November 2022

ATP Finals - Casper could be underrated again...

Tuesday 15th November 2022

Good morning. The pattern continued yesterday…

So far at this week’s ATP Finals in Turin, three out of four matches have been won by the underdog. And all four have featured at least one Tiebreak set…

On Monday, that angle meant a ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ winner for us, with a scary-good Novak Djokovic beating Stefanos Tsitsipas, 6-4, 7-6.

I’m after another Tiebreak in today’s evening match. With Casper Ruud taking on Taylor Fritz

Ruud v Fritz tonight…

These are two players that we know well. Both have featured in my annual pre-season Ones to Watch reports before. Fritz won Indian Wells for us at 100/1 earlier this year. Ruud has bagged us Each Way place profits at big prices, too…

Often underrated on hard courts, the steady-headed young Norwegian has done well for us at outsider prices in 2022. We were on Casper at 22/1 at the Miami Open, and then at 66/1 for the US Open. In both cases, Ruud finished a very creditable runner-up, providing us with some healthy Each Way returns.

Fritz and Ruud have never met on the tour before. With these Turin indoor courts playing fast, and tiebreaks in every match so far in the opening round of Group matches. Serve could again play a big part in tonight’s proceedings – and even more so with these guys looking to figure out each other’s game in the opening stages.

Neither player faced a single break point on their own serve in their first match this week.

As with yesterday’s analysis, let’s go after the Even Money or better (2.0+) prices for a Tiebreak in the match.

And to repeat what I said yesterday, regarding the available markets:

  • Oddschecker is once again being no use at all for us – with the ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ market not even listed. I’ve included the bookies I’ve found for you below, with William Hill a best price as I write. The match is at 8pm, so more bookmakers might get involved by then
  • Other options to consider here, based around landing a tiebreak (7-6) result – with plenty of firms offering these bets – include: betting on a Tiebreak or ‘Over 12.5 Games’ in the individual sets. Or backing both men to win 7-6 in the Set Correct Score markets. In-play could also be the way to go with those

I also think Ruud may be slightly underrated to get the win here. He’s the marginal underdog in the Match Winner betting, and odds of 11/10 (2.1) appeal to me today. With both men’s serve and forehand firing, it could come down to another factor to decide this. While Fritz is more likely to rain down the aces, when the ball is in play, Ruud’s court speed and movement could give him the edge in the big rallies.

Max on tour…

Elsewhere in the tennis today, on the lower-tier ATP Challenger circuit. I like our man Max Hans Rehberg to rack up another win on indoor hard courts…

The 19-year-old German gave us a pair of back-to-back match wins last month, and can give a good account of himself again this afternoon, taking on Great Britain’s Charles Broom at the Drummondville event in Canada.

Age 24, Broom is higher ranked, but this match-up is the world no.429 v no.383 – and the upside and potential for improvement is all with the teenager as I see it. Rehberg at 4/6 (1.67) is the bet.

Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Finals, 8pm
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Live streaming on bookie sites inc. Bet365, Skybet

Casper Ruud v Taylor Fritz

Note: some bookies call this market ‘Tiebreak in the Match.’ Others call it ‘Total Tiebreaks Over 0.5.’

Match Winner:

  • Ruud to beat Fritz @ 11/10 (2.1) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, 21/20 (2.05) Betway, Evens (2.0) Skybet, Boylesports 

ATP Challenger – Drummondville
Approx. 4.30pm

Match Winner:

  • Max Hans Rehberg to beat Charles Broom @ 7/10 (1.7) Betway, 4/6 (1.67) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, 10Bet

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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch