ATP Metz update - guaranteed a 66/1 shot in the semis...

Thursday 9th November 2023

Good morning. Our three Ones to Watch picks are all through to the ATP Metz – Moselle Open quarter finals today…

And with 66/1 Luca Van Assche playing fellow 66/1 French selection, Pierre-Hugues Herbert. That means we’re guaranteed a big-odds outsider in the semi finals.

We’ve been waiting for the tables to turn in our favour. Maybe this is the week. A couple of situations certainly went our way yesterday…

De Minaur withdraws – and Herbert takes out a Lucky Loser…

World no.12 Alex De Minaur withdrew from the tournament. Which wasn’t a big surprise, for reasons mentioned in Wednesday’s email. That opened the door for our man Herbert, who took on ‘Lucky Loser’ Gijs Brouwer instead. The Frenchman took advantage of the opportunity, winning in straight sets.

Stan slips – and Van Assche goes through…

While that De Minaur scenario was half-anticipated. What happened in the match between Van Assche and Stan Wawrinka was just plain unfortunate for the Swiss veteran…

Serving with two match points at 6-4 in the second-set tiebreak, Stan slipped over and injured himself. He got back up, but didn’t win another point. And when our French teenager Van Assche took the ‘breaker to level the match at one set all, the 38-year-old shook hands and retired. Young Luca moves on to the quarter finals, having saved two match points…

All-Russian contest – and we’re on the bigger price…

In the same side of the Metz draw and also through to the quarter finals, we have 28/1 shot Alexander Shevchenko taking on fellow Russian, the higher-ranked Karen Khachanov.

• Khachanov was in the book for us at 70/1 & 66/1 at the ATP 1000 Paris Masters recently, where he reached the quarters. At this week’s smaller, ATP 250-grade event, Karen is the 3rd seed, and went off at more like 5/1. This is the game we play – always going for the most attractive prices…

Shevchenko is the underdog going into this afternoon’s match. But he’s been playing well, and the 22-year-old will be hungry to reach his first ever ATP semi final – having made his first quarter final last time out indoors at Basel.

The ideal scenario today being: Shevchenko wins, and then faces Van Assche or Herbert in the semi finals. Giving us a foot in the door for a big-price Each Way pick to compete in the final.

This morning’s revised ATP Metz, Outright Winner prices:

28/1 Shevchenko – now 12/1

66/1 Van Assche – now 15/2

66/1 Herbert – now 14/1

We’re on three of the eight players left in the tournament, and at outsider prices to boot.

And if you look at the ‘Most Popular Bets’ on Oddschecker, you and your fellow Ones to Watch members account for a big piece of the pie here (65% to be precise)…

Play starts from 1pm UK time.

Enjoy the tennis…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch