Tennis Betting Advice - October 2018

A 4/1 shot for Tuesday…

Monday 8th October 2018                          

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Shanghai…
  • Marin Cilic v Nicolas Jarry…
  • Back the underdog at 4/1…

A 4/1 shot for Tuesday…

I said we’d be turning our Ones to Watch approach onto some match bets soon – and tomorrow morning presents us with an appealing opportunity to back a 4/1 underdog…

Marin Cilic made the Wimbledon final last summer, and was runner-up at the Australian Open this January. On both occasions we had him on our Ones to Watch lists, with the 2014 US Open champion catching the eye as a 28/1+ Grand Slam contender.

Having turned 30 at the end of September, the big Croatian’s focus is likely to be on the Grand Slam events more than ever from now on. He’s made no secret of the fact that he prizes being in those finals above all else.

The flipside is that Marin’s intensity and level can drop a little on the weekly tour stage. As was the case last week when he blew a lead and lost to a 10/3 (4.33) match outsider, World No.49 Jan-Lennard Struff in Tokyo. I had that match in my notes. This time I’m pulling the bet trigger and opposing Cilic...

Back the underdog…

Tomorrow’s opponent Nicolas Jarry is about the trickiest early-round draw Cilic could have got. The 22-year-old Chilean is having a breakthrough year, reaching his first ATP final and coming close with three other semi final runs, too – including when we backed him in Kitzbuhel as a 40/1 shot in July.

Clay is his go-to surface but as he showed at the US Open when taking our pick John Isner the distance to five sets, Jarry has the game for hard courts, too. He uses his clay-honed skills for building points to good effect, and has the serve and forehand to step up the power and win points outright.

A player like Jarry who can look after the majority of his service games is bad news for a big server like Cilic. Both men stand 6’6” and this could come down to a few crunch points or lapses in concentration. Cilic is no stranger to a wobble and Jarry’s solid serving game can unsettle him here.

As 5th seed, Cilic had a Bye through to the 2nd Round. Jarry already has a match under his belt, seeing off the tricky serve & volley-er Mischa Zverev 2-1 in the 1st Round. Jarry lost his serve just once in total in those three sets, hitting 18 Aces and winning a healthy 78% of 1st Serve Points.

The standout bet is 4/1 (5.00) for World No.48 Jarry to pull off the upset win on Tuesday. The +4.5 Games Handicap would also make a sound bet but at 5/6 (1.83) it’s not the best option in my eyes here.

The Tiebreak in the Match market would be of interest too, although at the time of writing only Bet365 and Sportingbet have that one available. Each of Cilic’s last 5 matches and each of Jarry’s last 4 have all featured a Tiebreak set (7-6 score). The individual set/ player markets will offer you bigger prices for a 7-6 correct score; the general Tiebreak in the Match option is just over Evens (2.00+).

All told, 4/1 for the match underdog is the bet for me.

ATP Shanghai – Rolex Shanghai Masters

Match Winner:

BET: Nicolas Jarry to beat Marin Cilic @ 4/1
BOOKIES: 4/1 (5.00) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

This match is scheduled last on centre court in Shanghai on Tuesday, so that should be around 1pm UK time.

You can view this week’s Outright Winner picks from Sunday night’s email here.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch