Tennis Betting Advice - October 2018
ATP picks – at 11/1 and 22/1…
Sunday 21st October 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Another big week indoors…
The autumn tennis continues this week with three tournaments on the calendar…
All three are indoor hard-court events. The year’s Top 8 women are in Singapore for the prestigious WTA World Tour Finals. With World No.1 Simona Halep out injured this looks like a bit of a free-for-all, and the prices reflect that with all eight players going off in a price range of 7/2 (4.50) to 11/1 (12.00).
The men are in Europe for two decent-sized tournaments – and two players appeal…
This week’s picks – at 11/1 and 22/1…
Roger Federer was once a ball-boy at ATP Basel, and he grew up to win eight titles at his hometown event. Roger is going for title number nine this week. He’s priced at just 15/8 (2.88) to do so. Federer is in the top half of the Basel draw. We’ll be looking to the opposite half…
Alexander Zverev is 9/2 (5.50) and Marin Cilic is 13/2 (7.50). Those single-figure prices don’t look good value at all for two players who have thrown in several ropey performances in recent weeks.
The player for me here is the often underrated, World No.25 Roberto Bautista-Agut. The tennis stereotype would be to assume a player with a name like that is best on clay, but the 6’0” Spaniard has actually won six of his eight career titles on hard courts. His indoor record includes a title win in Sofia and runner-up appearances in Moscow (twice) and Valencia. He’s got two ATP trophies this season and both came on hard courts.
Bautista-Agut ran Federer close in Shanghai recently, only narrowly beaten two sets to one. Last month he made the semi finals indoors in St Petersburg, only beaten by eventual tournament winner Dominic Thiem. Bautista-Agut has a neat serve and can punch above his weight, as he showed when reaching the 2016 Shanghai Masters final as a 100/1 outsider.
An opening match against Joao Sousa is a tricky obstacle but the career head-to-head is 6-2 in favour of our man, including their two most recent meetings which were both on indoor hard courts. If he can negotiate that one then 20/1+ will be a great price to have on your side.
ATP Basel – Swiss Indoors
BET: Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 22/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 22/1 (23.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 20/1 (21.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Last year we were on ATP Vienna winner Lucas Pouille at 25/1. This year Pouille goes off at twice the price but that’s understandable considering his drop-off in form. He’s an erratic player, and any number of examples could demonstrate that. Here’s one. In 2016 he lost in the 1st Round in Vienna; in 2017 he won the title. The Frenchman is a potential lurker this week but not the form pick for me…
Boric Coric at 11/1 is my pick from the draw on day one. We’ve already flagged up the 21-year-old Croatian as One to Watch for the next year’s Grand Slams. And after an impressive run to the Shanghai Masters final as a 100/1 outsider this month – beating Federer in the semis – Coric is looking dialled-in and ready to win.
He’s up to a career high of No.13 in the world and is breathing down the neck of the Top 10. Coric is a seriously talented young man and one who looks to be improving in all the right areas – power, mentality and fitness.
In the bottom half of the Vienna draw, Borna avoids the big names packing out the top half which include top seed Thiem (7/1), US Open semi-finalist Kei Nishikori (9/1), last week’s ATP Moscow champion Karen Khachanov (14/1), as well as big names like Grigor Dimitrov (16/1) and the returning from injury Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (50/1).
The bottom half looks the place to be and the in-form & improving Coric can end the season on a high with another impressive display here.
ATP Vienna – Erste Bank Open
BET: Borna Coric @ 11/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 11/1 (12.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 8/1 (9.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet, Boylesports
Play starts on Monday from around 12 noon. Bookies will temporarily suspend their Outright/ Tournament Winner markets during play.
Daria Kasatkina put in a great performance last week, winning her home tournament in Moscow – and landing a best price 22/1 winner for us.
Were you on Kasatkina? How did you do? I’d love to hear from you. Drop me a message with your story here.
Enjoy the tennis…