Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

An underdog pick in Cologne today…

Wednesday 14th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Cologne…
  • Upsets in Germany…
  • Zverev the value today…

After the big-odds bustle of the French Open, we’re having a relatively quiet week this week.

There are three ATP tournaments taking place though, in Cologne, Sardinia, and St Petersburg. We’ve got an interest in the latter two, with our Outright Winner picks Lorenzo Musetti and Reilly Opelka.

Musetti won his 1st round match in Sardinia in straight sets, coming through a tough challenge against the experienced Pablo Cuevas on Monday. Opelka plays his first match in St Petersburg today.

Upsets in Germany…

The ‘Bett1 HULKS Indoors’ event – AKA, ATP Cologne – is a new tournament added to the men’s calendar this autumn. There are actually two of these taking place at the same German venue this month.

So far this week the new tournament has been all about the minor upsets…

On Monday, five of the six 1st round matches were won by the underdog in the betting.

On Tuesday, it was the same again, with five of the day’s six encounters won by the pre-match outsider. Including Andy Murray losing to 2/1 shot Fernando Verdasco.

At similar odds and bigger, one I like today is Mischa Zverev to beat Hubert Hurkacz

Zverev the value today…

I don’t often bet against players on our Ones to Watch list, but the 23-year-old Hurkacz looks to have been struggling a little with fitness and confidence since the restart. A 3-2 loss in the 1st round in Paris last time out won’t have helped things.

Zverev is a player that used to feature in this column quite often in years gone by. Now 33 years of age, and with plenty of his own fitness struggles in recent times, Mischa is more famous for being the older brother of Next Gen star and recent US Open finalist, Alexander Zverev.

The German brothers were knocked out of the Doubles in Cologne yesterday. In the Singles, Mischa made a superb start on Monday, sweeping aside the always-competitive John Millman in straight sets. Zverev was 3/1 and bigger going into that match.

On indoor hard courts, Zverev’s career match win-loss record is 187-115 (62%), including a run to the ATP Metz final in 2010, and the semi finals in 2017. With less career form in the book, Hurkacz is 37-34 indoors (52%).

Known as a tricky left-hander and a serve-volleyer, the older of the Zverev brothers made his name with a big win over Andy Murray at the Australian Open in 2017. His lefty shots and net skills can cause the rangy Hurkacz some problems today. The 6’5” Pole still has a bit of work to do on his movement. Zverev could exploit that here.

If the younger player serves to his potential, then it’ll be hard for the German veteran to beat the favourite this afternoon. But recent form suggests Hubert will likely offer up a few chances to his wily opponent in this one. Odds of 13/5 and 12/5 appeal for the underdog.

Ones to Watch:

ATP Cologne – Match Winner pick:

  • Mischa Zverev to beat Hubert Hurkacz is 13/5 (3.6) with BetVictor, 12/5 (3.4) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 23/10 (3.3) William Hill, Betway, 9/4 (3.25) Boylesports

The match is scheduled for 4.30pm+.

I’ll be back later in the week with an update. In the meantime, if you need to get in touch, I’m on the usual email address:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch