Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020
One to Watch in Astana…
Tuesday 27th October 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The match-point fun continues…
On Sunday night we were talking about match points and small margins…
Well, we had one of those close calls go our way on Monday. Our 100/1 & 80/1 outsider Kevin Anderson came through a 1st round nail-biter at ATP Vienna…
At 6-3 down in the deciding tiebreaker against in-form Austrian hope, Denis Novak, Anderson faced three match points. He managed to save all three, then closed the win out on the first match point of his own. The final result, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6.
As we noted – and accepted – when taking the speculative Outright Winner odds on the South African on Sunday, injury & fitness issues are a concern for the 34-year-old Anderson these days. That was evident at times in Monday’s match, with Kevin having treatment courtside on a couple of occasions.
His serve remains a potent weapon, though. The 6’8” right-hander delivered 18 aces v Novak. With Anderson winning 84% of his first-serve points, and giving away just one break point in the match.
Let’s see how big Kev holds up after a rest…
Anderson is priced up as a 2/1 underdog in the next round v Pablo Carreno-Busta. The career head-to-head is actually 5-1 in favour of our man – although the Spaniard won their last meeting, on hard courts in 2018.
My pick in Kazakhstan…
I said we’d take a look at the open-looking field at this week’s other, smaller tournament, taking place in Kazakhstan. You could make a case for a handful of players at ATP Astana in the capital city of Nur-Sultan, at odds ranging from 7/1 – 14/1.
Rather than pepper the drawsheet with too many picks at those less than juicy prices, I’m going in with one young player on the up, with some promising indoor hard-court credentials…
Emil Ruusuvuori has cracked the top 100 this season, hitting a career high of no.91 in the world last month. With the Finnish 21-year-old now making the move to main-tour ATP events, graduating from the lower-tier Challenger Tour, we can expect to see him go higher next season and beyond…
Indoor credentials…
At the start of 2020, Ruusuvuori reached a Challenger final on hard courts in Canberra. Last year, the former junior world no.4 won three Challenger titles on hard courts in the back end of the season. Lifting trophies at Mallorca, and Glasgow (indoors) in September 2019, then again indoors ‘at home’ in Helsinki in November.
For his career to date, this Finnish prospect has a very notable 63-19 match win-loss record indoors. That’s an impressive 77% win-rate, even if most of those victories were achieved at lower-level tournaments.
On the up…
The 6’2” youngster has been impressive so far at this new event in the Kazakhstan capital, winning two matches to come through qualifying. Then posting a confident 6-2, 6-0 result in the 1st round proper, albeit against less than intimidating opposition, teenage Kazakh wildcard, Timofey Skatov (ranked no.438).
Ruusuvuori’s next opponent Jordan Thompson is a step up, but with all due respect, this assignment against the world no.60 is not a bad draw at all for the younger player. Australian 26-year-old Thompson has only posted a positive win-loss record indoors in two of his last seven seasons on the pro tour. The bookies make the newcomer from Finland a 2/5 (1.4) favourite to win that match and progress to the quarter finals.
The unreliable Benoit Paire is in this half of the Astana Open draw. The bookies’ prices tell the story. Paire is no.1 seed at this event – but the oddsmakers have him as a 20/1 outsider to win it. The Frenchman can turn on the style at any time. But having not long returned to action after a coronavirus scare, it doesn’t make much sense to jump on the what-if scenario for Paire this week.
The Outright markets are popping back up after today’s play, as I write. The matches resume on Wednesday morning, from 6am UK time. That gives you this evening to get on the improving Ruusuvuori at the best prices you can grab. As I write, there’s 12/1 and 9/1 available.
As with so many of our young Ones to Watch picks, Emil Ruusuvuori is searching for a first senior tour final & title – and we want to try and make sure that we’re on him when it comes.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
ATP Astana – Astana Open, Nur-Sultan
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Other bookies to check with when they put their Astana Outright markets back up this evening: Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral, BetVictor, Betway, Betfred, Boylesports.
I’ll be back later in the week with your next Ones to Watch update.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson