Tennis Betting Advice - October 2024
Paris Masters: Serve big at 66/1...
Monday 28th October 2024
Day 1 of the Rolex Paris Masters was a good one for the French players, with three out of four winning through to round two...
The home fans haven't had too much to cheer about here over the years. But then again, seven-time Paris indoors champion Novak Djokovic isn't here to pummel the field this time. And this 2024 draw has the potential to open up, coming as it does at the end of a long season...
Indeed, I mentioned the words fatigue and injury in my first Paris Masters email on Sunday night. Our 50/1+ man Tomas Machac came a cropper on Monday, winning the first set of his 1st round match, but then having to call on the trainer, and eventually call it quits. Watch out for the Czech bouncing back for the 2025 season.
We're already on one Frenchman here, with Arthur Fils in the book at 40/1 (now 33/1 - plays in 1st round on Tuesday morning).
Let's add another. Big servers have done very well at this venue before. The 6'10" John Isner making the final at 80/1 a few years back, for example. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard looks set to take over the 'ace machine' mantel from Isner, now that the American is retired...
Mpetchi Perricard stands 6'8" - and he'll feel even taller after winning the biggest title of his career last week. The 21-year-old won ATP 500 Basel, without losing a service game all week. Less than a handful of players on tour in the last decade have achieved that serving feat.
Giovanni was 50/1 last week in Switzerland. We can get that price or better for him here at home in France, at this big ATP 1000 event. Betfred are 66/1 as I write.
Momentum and confidence count for a lot. The young Frenchman won at home in Lyon earlier this season, for the first title of his career. He's just added Basel, and is up to a new highest ranking of no.31.
If he can get past Frances Tiafoe in his opener on Tuesday, then Mpetshi Perricard may prove hard to stop in these indoor hard-court conditions, playing the way he did last week. He was mightily impressive, especially so in the final against Ben Shelton, who is a tough nut to crack.
We'll also take Karen Khachanov as an in-form outsider at 66/1. Long-time readers may remember I called Khachanov in Paris one of my all-time 'ones that got away'...
Back in 2018, I actually sat down one Sunday night to write him up at 40/1 for this tournament. But for some now inexplicable reason, I dropped him from my final selections. The rest is history. Karen went all the way, and beat Djokovic in the final. I watched it all unfold, penniless.
Let's not make that mistake again. It took Khachanov until 2023 to follow up that big Paris Masters win with any kind of ATP singles trophy. Now age 28, and currently ranked at no.21 in the world. He's added two more titles this season. And this year marks the first time since that 2018 run that the Russian has reached two indoor finals in the same calendar year. The signs are there...
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See above for full details
ATP Paris - Rolex Paris Masters
Play starts 10am, UK time
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 66/1 Betfred, 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral
Karen Khachanov @ 66/1 Betfred, Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor
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You can watch the Paris Masters live on Sky Sports.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone