Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
US Open: Day 12 – Men’s Semi Finals…
Friday 6th September 2019
US Open - Day 12
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your US Open 2019 daily service.
Last night was a 4am+ finish for the tennis. So forgive me arriving in your inbox a few minutes later than usual…
Teenager in the final…
You won’t see a tighter two-set match than last night.
Belinda Bencic had all the break points in the first set (6-0), including a set point. And in the second set, Bencic had a 5-2 lead with a double break and served for the set – twice.
But Bianca Andreescu did what she’s been doing this year. She fought back. And she found a way to win. The 19-year-old dug in to pull off a hard-fought 7-6, 7-5 victory and move into the final, where she’ll face Serena Williams. That’s a hugely exciting match to look forward to tomorrow.
As I’ve been saying all tournament – you can’t back them all. I like Andreescu. But I didn’t like her 12/1 price for the US Open. We got her at 30/1 and 28/1 when she won Indian Wells earlier this year. Bianca has made three finals this season and we’ve landed a nice price on the Canadian in one of them. That’s okay.
On this occasion, we had Bencic at 25/1 or 22/1. The 22-year-old wasn’t far off. This talented Swiss player will have more opportunities next season and to come, I’m sure. But there’s no denying that Andreescu had the mental edge last night.
It’s a similar story with another of 2019’s breakthrough players, Daniil Medvedev…
He’s on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list. We’ve backed him in two of the tournaments where he’s made the final this season, with the Russian giving us Each Way place payouts on the ATP Tour from starting prices of 14/1 and 20/1. Medvedev went into the US Open at shorter than that, despite the larger number of match wins needed to triumph in the two-week Grand Slam format.
Daniil is in the semi finals today…
Medvedev v Dimitrov…
Medvedev takes on Grigor Dimitrov (9pm, UK time). One of these men will reach the final of a Major for the first time…
The summer form and rankings point to Medvedev. But a resurgent Dimitrov beat Roger Federer in the last round. And the Bulgarian has had less court time this fortnight than the Russian, including benefitting from a pass through the 2nd Round after Borna Coric withdrew.
The Aces and Double Faults stats get our attention today…
Medvedev claims he was close to retiring in each of his last two matches. A gruelling hard-court season has seen him play a mountain of tennis since the start of August. A win today would give him a remarkable fourth straight appearance in a final. But all that running takes its toll. Medvedev has been looking patched-up and a little weary in the last couple of rounds. Like Andreescu, he’s been finding a way to win – thanks to some smart tactics. But the run has to end sometime.
Medvedev goes big on his second serve in pressure situations. That can lead to Double Faults. He’s got a high 38 in the tournament so far (from five matches), averaging 7.6 per match and 2 per set.
In comparison, Dimitrov has served 18 Double Faults (from four matches), averaging 4.5 per match and 1.2 per set.
The bookies are all over Medvedev for the Most Double Faults today, with some firms as short as 1/5 (1.20) and 1/3 (1.33) for the Russian. Skybet are a best price 4/6 (1.67) if you’re backing Daniil in that market.
In the Total Double Faults market, the Over 12.5 option looks a more appealing pick at around Evens (2.00).
Using the numbers above as a guide we’d be looking for 12+ as the upside tally here. And with a potentially long match in store, Medvedev’s fitness issues and also the fact that Dimitrov can throw in a fair few Double Faults himself when nervous – going high on the total could prove the best move in this one.
And for something more of a long-shot…
Dimitrov was level-pegging with Federer for Aces in the last round. Medvedev is the big server here, and averaging 2 Aces per set more than Grigor in this tournament. But again, if Medvedev is in pain or discomfort on his serve, the Ace count could drop. Likewise, he might move slower towards the Bulgarian’s serves – or let a few balls fly past him for an Ace as weariness sets in.
Odds as big as 9/1 make Dimitrov an outside chance for the Most Aces this evening.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
Daniil Medvedev v Grigor Dimitrov:
BET: Total Double Faults – Over 12.5 @ 111/100
BOOKIES: 111/100 (2.11) Marathonbet, Evens (2.00) Sportingbet, 10/11 (1.91) NetBet, 10Bet, 17/20 (1.85) 888 Sport, Unibet
BET: Most Aces – Dimitrov @ 9/1
BOOKIES: 9/1 (10.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 8/1 (9.00) BetVictor, 15/2 (8.50) Skybet, 37/5 (8.40) Marathonbet
I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the women’s final.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson