Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
French Open: Day 1 – Outright Winner picks…
Sunday 27th September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 1 of your Ones to Watch French Open daily service…
We’re usually in Paris in spring. But as is the way in this strange year, we instead find ourselves at Roland Garros with autumn upon us…
Outright Winner picks…
We’ve been knocking on the door of getting a big price finalist recently. In Rome, 150/1 Casper Ruud made the semi finals. And this week, 25/1 Cristian Garin got to the semis in Hamburg.
You & I are taking it steady today. Most of the big names aren’t in action until Monday. We have plenty of time to make our moves.
That said, I have a couple of Ones to Watch players for the book today. All ticking our box: appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…
Strange times – and familiar faces…
Rafael Nadal says its cold. The conditions (and new Wilson ball) are apparently playing heavy.
Two of the top three women’s players aren’t here. World No.1 and reigning champion Ashleigh Barty has opted not to travel & compete until next season. World No.3 and recent US Open winner Naomi Osaka is injured.
As if the 2020 circumstances weren’t already enough to make this year’s French Open ripe for upsets and surprises. Recent Paris history paints a picture of big prices in the women’s event…
In the last three years, the French Open has seen finalists at 40/1, 50/1, and 100/1. The most recent of those was our 2019 Ones to Watch selection, Marketa Vondrousova (runner-up at 40/1).
Still only 21 years of age, the Czech left-hander has a classy playing style. The best drop shot in the game. And a deceptively heavy, hooked lefty forehand. Sometimes, Vondrousova looks to be loping around the court without much urgency. But looks can be deceptive. Her movement is supreme. As is her talent.
Last year’s run to the French Open final is a fantastic piece of form to have on your side. She’s still very much under the radar, so the pressure to repeat shouldn’t be too high.
Marketa is in Simona Halep’s side of the draw. The World No.2 is the bookies’ solid 11/4 (3.75) favourite for the title. That’s understandable. Halep is played two won two on tour since lockdown, lifting the titles at both WTA Palermo and WTA Rome. At Roland Garros, the Romanian has made the final three times in her last six visits, with one trophy win.
Talking of good pieces of form to have in your armour, it’s worth noting that Vondrousova has a 2-0 career head-to-head record v Halep. Not many women in the field can say that.
I also want to add Vondrousova to our 2020 French Open book today, with 33/1 and 28/1 available, as she plays our early-bird pick, Ones to Watch teenager Iga Swiatek, in the 1st round.
In the men’s, the betting tells a stark story:
Rafael Nadal 11/10 (2.1)
Novak Djokovic 21/10 (3.1)
Dominic Thiem 9/2 (5.5)
Nadal has won Roland Garros a record 12 times. He’s beaten Thiem in the final two years running. Thiem just won his first Grand Slam title, at the US Open. Djokovic is World No.1, just won Rome on clay, and hasn’t lost a match on tour (barring disqualification) in 2020.
That’s how it is with the big boys: amazing stats, short prices.
Those top three guys don’t play until tomorrow. We’ll have plenty of time to keep an eye out for any outsiders showing form in the draw.
One man we do have in the book as an ante post selection from this summer is Stan Wawrinka. Stan plays Andy Murray in the 1st round this afternoon.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
The French Open is being shown live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning at 8am with your Day 2 email and analysis.
Enjoy the tennis…