Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
French Open: Day 2 – Outright Winner picks…
Monday 28th September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 2 of your Ones to Watch French Open daily service…
Stan Wawrinka crushed Andy Murray 3-0 on Sunday, marking a positive start for our Outright Winner picks. This morning, Stan is trading at 50/1. He’s a dangerous outsider.
When it comes to the tournament markets, we’re only interested in the big prices. Especially when we can get attractive, Each Way odds for a proven quality player, a youngster with big potential, or an improving player on the up.
In the women’s, we’ll have one of Marketa Vondrousova (33/1) and Iga Swiatek (100/1) in the 2nd round.
Teenager Swiatek was an early-bird pick from back in July. Last week’s French Open draw was unkind to the 19-year-old, pitting her against 2019 runner-up Vondrousova. As outlined yesterday, I like the 21-year-old Czech to go well again this fortnight in Paris.
Outright Winner picks…
The 1st round matches continue today and into Tuesday. Across today and tomorrow, we’ll be adding a handful of names to our Outright Winner book.
All available at good prices, all with the potential to put a big run together at Roland Garros in the days ahead.
And as ever with our big-price Ones to Watch picks – it only takes one to make it a great tournament…
Men’s:
Daniil Medvedev falls into the category of a quality player available at an eye-catching price. The 24-year-old Russian is 50/1 Boylesports and 40/1 in general.
To put those odds in perspective, consider this: he went off at 14/1 at the US Open last summer, and reached the final. At the Australian Open this January, the bookies had Medvedev at 8/1 at best. And at this year’s US Open, Daniil started as a 6/1 shot.
The reason for the huge price difference is the playing surface. Medvedev has never won a match on the Roland Garros clay courts. But all that form refers to before his big breakout run last summer. The Russian is now a Top 5 player, and challenging for the biggest titles.
This is the guy that beat Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on clay at Monte Carlo last year, and reached the final in Barcelona. He can play on clay.
Add in the fact that this year’s French Open is very different to usual. The playing conditions are cold and slow. Medvedev is one of the smartest men on tour. He can figure this out. And unlike some players this week, Daniil sounds positive about the challenge:
“It can help me that it's a bit colder, so the balls don't fly as much, don't go as spinny … I think it can be an opportunity for me actually, an advantage.”
The two fellow ‘Next Gen’ players competing with Daniil for favouritism in the Quarter 2 Winner betting are Stefanos Tsitsipas (3/1 to win Quarter 2) and Andrey Rublev (6/1). Medvedev is priced between 4/1 and 7/1 in that market, to reach the semi finals.
Those two both bring mental baggage against Medvedev. He has a commanding 5-1 career head-to-head record v Tsitsipas, and 4-0 v compatriot & friend, Rublev.
Medvedev has got the mindset and stamina to reach Grand Slam finals. This French Open presents a chance to back him at a big price.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
The French Open is being shown live on Eurosport.
Play starts at 10am. Medvedev doesn’t play his 1st round match until 3pm+ this afternoon.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 3 email and analysis.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson