Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021
Back on the trail in Luxembourg - at 33/1...
Monday 13th September 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
The most I can say about my 3-2 pick on Novak Djokovic yesterday is that we got the best price...
In the pre-match betting, Djokovic to win 3-2 was 6/1 (7.0) & 5/1 (6.0). In-play, at two sets to nil down v Daniil Medvedev, the 3-2 route was the only option remaining for the world no.1. And the price on Djokovic fighting back from there was 7/2 (4.5) on the Betfair Exchange, and 3/1 (4.0) with Bet365.
You might argue that price doesn’t matter if the bet loses. But it does. Play at the better odds more frequently than not, and you’ll do alright in the long run.
Congratulations to Medvedev. He joins the rank of former Ones to Watch Report youngsters that have gone on to achieve Grand Slam glory.
As I always find myself saying the day after a Major (or in the case of scribing this email to you, five minutes after one ends): there’s no rest for the wicked. The tours continue. Play starts at 11am...
Ones to Watch in Luxembourg...
The women take centre stage this week. WTA Luxembourg is my point of focus this morning. Back in 2015, this indoor hard-court tournament was the scene of one of my all-time ‘ones that got away’...
Now that a few years have passed, it’s safe to share it with you. That year, I had Misaki Doi in my notes as an outside chance for the Luxembourg title. But I didn’t pull the trigger. Doi had never won a WTA title before. She went on to take the trophy that week, as a 100/1 rank outsider. That’s the way it goes sometimes…
I don’t fancy Doi’s chances of a Luxembourg repeat this week. Now aged 30, the Japanese world no.97 hasn’t been past the 1st round in two subsequent visits. Misaki is priced at 66/1 in general this time, and 80/1 with Betfred. I’d expect her to come a cropper in her very first match, against one of 2021’s most improved players, world no.52 Ludmilla Samsonova.
The 22-year-old Russian has won a maiden WTA title this summer, and also impressively reached the Last 16 at Wimbledon. Samsonova is 12/1 this week. Unspectacular odds compared to 100/1, granted, but this title looks very achievable for a young player of her calibre.
In the opposite half of the Luxembourg Open draw, and with the prices in mind, two young players I like are Clara Tauson, and Varvara Gracheva...
Last week, we got 18-year-old Tauson in the book as a 100/1 early-bird pick for next year’s Australian Open. The Danish teenager is no.78 in the world, and got a debut WTA title under her belt this season. That win came on indoor hard courts in Lyon. This week’s WTA 250-grade event under the sports-hall roof in Luxembourg offers similar conditions.
As I write, in the early hours of Monday morning, not all bookies are up. But from those that are, Clara is 16/1 with Betfred, and 10/1 with a couple of others (see below).
If she wins her 1st round match, Tauson may well come against Ekaterina Alexandrova (12/1) in round two. The 26-year-old Russian has been a go-to indoors pick of ours in recent years. Five of her seven career titles at all levels have come on indoor hard courts. However, Alexandrova has been in poor form for a few months now. And during that Lyon success earlier this year, Tauson beat her in straight sets. I’m with the teenager.
Back on the big-odds trail…
It might be a minor tournament in a small nation, but the Luxembourg Open has a history of delivering big-odds winners and finalists. As well as Misaki Doi at 100/1, instalments including & since 2015 have also featured winners at 20/1, 25/1, and 16/1. And runners-up at 33/1, 20/1, and 50/1.
For an outsider who could spring a bit of a surprise this week, Varvara Gracheva is a name to look out for, with odds of 33/1 on the table. The 21-year-old - yet another Russian - is up to a career high of no.82 in the world. From what I’ve seen of her in recent weeks, Gracheva hits a nice deep ball, has a hint of endearing outsider character to her, and is up for a scrap. All of which make her a decent underdog to follow.
Before the US Open, Varvara reached the semi finals of the lower-grade WTA 125 event on hard courts in Chicago. Before pulling off one of the shocks of the early rounds in the main event in New York, knocking out the much-fancied Paula Badosa in straight sets.
The bookies have Gracheva as very short odds-on to beat 35-year-old Mandy Minella in the Luxembourg 1st round. Minella is a homeland player here, but her past form at this venue is somewhat less than inspiring: 11 exits in a row, all in the 1st round. Minella is one of the women to have returned to the tour after becoming a mother, and full credit to her for doing so. But the formbook, and a current world ranking of no.230, says the younger player will pile on the Luxembourg misery here.
Ones to Watch
WTA Luxembourg - BNP Paribas Luxembourg Open
Outright Winner - Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts 11am. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson