Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

WTA Luxembourg - 4/1 angles for this evening...

Thursday 16th September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • WTA Luxembourg...
  • Youngsters into the quarter finals…
  • Sasnovich v Mertens, 6.30pm… 

Youngsters into the Quarter Finals…

This week’s Outright Winner preview for WTA Luxembourg focused on three youngsters…

While 21-year-old Varvara Gracheva wasn’t able to put a run together at 33/1 (knocked out in the 1st round by 35-year-old Mandy Minella, who was 4/1 on the day).

Our other two picks are both playing well, and have won through the first two rounds, booking their places in the quarter finals

From odds of 12/1 (13.0) and 11/1 (12.0) at the start of the tournament, 22-year-old Ludmilla Samsonova was this morning trading at 13/2 (7.5) or shorter.

While our 16/1 (17.0) or 10/1 (11.0) pick, 18-year-old Clara Tauson, was down to 9/2 (5.5).

Those two get a rest day today, and will find out their quarter-final opponents, ready to take to the court again on Friday.

The headline match on Thursday’s Luxembourg schedule gets my attention today. This one is last on court, expected at 6.30pm or later, UK time…

Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Elise Mertens

Match Winner odds: Sasnovich 10/3 (4.33) – Mertens 2/9 (1.22)

Rankings: Sasnovich #111 – Mertens #16

Head-to-Head: Sasnovich 3-1

This is an interesting match-up, coming as it does directly after the US Open. Mertens is a short favourite today, but before you rush to back any odds-on 2/9 prices, it’s worth noting that the Belgian been a little unconvincing when first back in action straight after a Grand Slam this season. With her matches immediately after the Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon, all going the distance to three sets (won one, lost two).

The underdog angle for Sasnovich can be backed up by pointing to the career head-to-head, which is 3-1 in favour of the Belarusian. While it’s certainly true that some players can become something of a ‘bogey’ opponent, in this case it’s also sensible to note that Mertens won their last meeting on hard courts – coming from a set down to win 2-1 in Toronto in 2019.

What could be significant though, is that Sasnovich has won (at least) one set in all of their four previous encounters.

As 2nd seed in the Luxembourg draw, Mertens had a Bye into the 2nd round. While Sasnovich played out a scrappy 1st round battle, eventually seeing off world #165 Lesia Tsurenko 7-5, 7-6. That goes down as a 2-0 win, but it took two and a half hours, and her opponent served for the first set at 5-4, and again at 5-4 in the second set – with Tsurenko losing serve both times.

Break points and breaks of serve were a theme in that match. I’ve seen Sasnovich play out a few wobbly, rollercoaster ones like that before. Against Tsurenko, the match produced a startling 41 break points in total. Aliaksandra won, but she hit more double faults than aces, and won just 37% of her second-serve points.

4/1 angles for Mertens…

Put simply, if Mertens turns up sharp today, and Sasnovich serves weakly again, then class will tell, and the favourite could make light work of the scoreboard. We’ve had some decent efforts in the Set Correct Score markets this summer. Today I like the chances for a 6-2 score in favour of Mertens…

  • 4 of the last 8 sets won by Mertens in 2nd-round matches have been by the 6-2 score
  • 4 of Sasnovich’s last 5 defeats have featured a 6-2 score to her opponent. Including a 6-2 result in the 1st Set of each of her last 3 losses

If Mertens is on the ball today, then she can break her lower-ranked opponent’s serve multiple times in each set. At odds of 4/1+ a pop, I’m covering Mertens 6-2 in both the 1st Set and 2nd Set markets.

Big price for the underdog in three…

Conversely, if the Belgian does end up putting in another ropey post-Grand Slam showing, then the three-set victory for the outsider could come off, at the end of a snaking scoreboard…

In the Set Betting market, Bet365’s standout price of 17/2 (9.5) for a Sasnovich 2-1 win catches my eye. That looks a bit big to me. And that being the case, it could prove value if the upset transpires today.

The way these WTA matches often go, this one could well pan out with Mertens bossing the scoreboard in one set, but also somehow being reeled in by Sasnovich over the course of the evening…

At the prices, I make it worth supporting both scenarios.

Ones to Watch

WTA Luxembourg – BNP Paribas Luxembourg Open

Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Elise Mertens

  • 1ST SET Correct Score: Mertens 6-2 @ 24/5 (5.8) William Hill, 888 Sport, 9/2 (5.5) Skybet, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, 17/4 (5.25) Betway, 4/1 (5.0) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports
  • 2ND SET Correct Score: Mertens 6-2 @ 19/4 (5.75) 888 Sport, 9/2 (5.5) William Hill, Boylesports, 17/4 (5.25) Betway, 4/1 (5.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • SET BETTING: Sasnovich to win 2-1 @ 17/2 (9.5) Bet365, 8/1 (9.0) Unibet, 15/2 (8.5) Ladbrokes, Coral, 7/1 (8.0) William Hill, BetVictor

The match is scheduled for 6.30pm+. You can watch on Amazon Prime Video, and also with Live Streaming on some bookie websites, such as Bet365.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch