OTW Extra Email Archive - August 2022
US OPEN COUNTDOWN:
If Tim Henman says it, then it must be true…
Friday 26th August 2022
In yesterday’s email we looked at the recent history of ‘surprises’ and big-odds finalists in women’s Grand Slam tournaments.
Today I’m looking at the men’s Major formbook.
Going into the US Open 2022, which starts on Monday, Tim Henman says this will be the most ‘open’ men’s Grand Slam event that he can remember in the last 20 – 30 years. Bring it on…
The Big Four are no more: the rise of the Next Gen…
Next week’s US Open will be without the 41-year-old Roger Federer. The absence of the five-time winner is one of the key indicators that the decade-plus dominance of the men’s Big Four as we know it has come to an end…
Andy Murray, age 35 and with a metal hip, is still playing. But Andy hasn’t reached a Grand Slam final since Wimbledon 2016.
The other two are still seriously strong contenders, and only a fool would say otherwise. Novak Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slam trophies on offer in 2021, and lifted the Wimbledon crown once again last month. Rafael Nadal has won the other two Majors so far in 2022, the Australian Open & French Open.
But the fact remains, all four of those guys are now age 35 or over. And these days, the top of the men’s world rankings doesn’t include any of those Big Four names in the Top 2.
Things get even more intriguing for next week’s big one in New York when we consider that no.2 and 2020 US Open runner-up Alexander Zverev is out injured. And nine-time finalist and three-time US Open champ Djokovic isn’t even allowed into the States to take part.
This combination of factors only stirs up the case for finding an outsider or two to follow at big prices over the next fortnight at Flushing Meadows, NYC…
Upsets happen more than you think…
I’ve gone through all of the odds and results from recent men’s Grand Slam finals.
While it might feel like the Big Four dominate everything (and in terms of actually lifting the trophies, they still pretty much do). As this list shows, it’s actually rare these days to see an all-Big Four final.
Next Gen names and outsiders are popping up frequently as Each Way finalists, making for some decent runner-up payouts…
Men’s Grand Slam finals since Wimbledon 2016:
Most recent first
NON-Big Four names in bold
(Odds in brackets)
Wimbledon 2022
Novak Djokovic (5/6) beat Nick Kyrgios (33/1)
French Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (4/1) beat Casper Ruud (22/1)
Australian Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (7/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (7/5)
US Open 2021
Daniil Medvedev (4/1) beat Novak Djokovic (8/11)
Wimbledon 2021
Novak Djokovic (4/5) beat Matteo Berrettini (12/1)
French Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (5/1) beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (5/1)
Australian Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Daniil Medvedev (9/2)
French Open 2020
Rafael Nadal (11/10) beat Novak Djokovic (21/10)
US Open 2020
Dominic Thiem (9/1) beat Alexander Zverev (25/1)
Wimbledon 2020
[Didn’t play – coronavirus]
Australian Open 2020
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Dominic Thiem (22/1)
US Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (3/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (14/1)
Wimbledon 2019
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Roger Federer (10/3)
French Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (10/11) beat Dominic Thiem (7/1)
Australian Open 2019
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Rafael Nadal (9/1)
US Open 2018
Novak Djokovic (3/1) beat Juan-Martin Del Potro (16/1)
Wimbledon 2018
Novak Djokovic (11/2) beat Kevin Anderson (50/1)
French Open 2018
Rafael Nadal (1/2) beat Dominic Thiem (10/1)
Australian Open 2018
Roger Federer (2/1) beat Marin Cilic (33/1)
US Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (11/4) beat Kevin Anderson (150/1)
Wimbledon 2017
Roger Federer (11/4) beat Marin Cilic (28/1)
French Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (5/6) beat Stan Wawrinka (14/1)
Australian Open 2017
Roger Federer (22/1) beat Rafael Nadal (16/1)
US Open 2016
Stan Wawrinka (25/1) beat Novak Djokovic (Evens)
Wimbledon 2016
Andy Murray (3/1) beat Milos Raonic (14/1)
These findings get me excited for hunting out an underdog at the US Open next week:
Watch this space – DAILY US Open service coming very soon…
If you like the sound of backing big odds outsiders in New York next week, then stay tuned…
Over on my members-only Ones to Watch service I’ll be providing a full VIP package, with Outright Winner picks, match bets, and DAILY emails and analysis for the US Open 2022. Plus, I’ll be contactable by email every day to answer questions and help members out.
The doors will be opening very soon. Watch this space. I’ll be in touch with the details you need to get onboard for my exclusive daily US Open advice.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson