8 of the last 16 US Open champions tick this box...

Thursday 24th August 2023

The US Open draw will be made today. The qualifying rounds are in full swing. And the 1st round proper starts on Monday afternoon, UK time…

With the Flushing Meadows venue the scene of many a big-price upset in recent years. I’ve been going through the New York numbers today. All part of our big-odds prep for next week’s Grand Slam event…

The US Open: a recent history of surprise winners & finalists…

With this being the last Major of the year, sometimes the star names are starting to flag after a busy season & loaded summer. Making the favourites potentially vulnerable by the time that the US Open rolls around in late August…

I’ve been keeping a record of tournament Outright Winner odds since 2015. Here’s the list of US Open finalists, including their Day 1 starting prices:

US Open – MEN’S:

2022
Champion: Carlos Alcaraz @ 5/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Casper Ruud @ 66/1

2021
Champion: Daniil Medvedev @ 4/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Novak Djokovic @ 8/11

2020
Champion: Dominic Thiem @ 9/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Alexander Zverev @ 25/1

2019
Champion: Rafael Nadal @ 3/1
Runner-Up: Daniil Medvedev @ 14/1

2018
Champion: Novak Djokovic @ 3/1
Runner-Up: Juan-Martin Del Potro @ 16/1

2017
Champion: Rafael Nadal @ 11/4
Runner-Up: Kevin Anderson @ 150/1

2016
Champion: Stan Wawrinka @ 25/1
Runner-Up: Novak Djokovic @ Evens

2015
Champion: Novak Djokovic @ 5/4
Runner-Up: Roger Federer @ 9/2

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US Open – WOMEN’S:

2022
Champion: Iga Swiatek @ 4/1
Runner-Up: Ons Jabeur @ 25/1

2021
Champion: Emma Raducanu @ 100/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Leylah Fernandez @ 250/1

2020
Champion: Naomi Osaka @ 11/2
Runner-Up: Victoria Azarenka @ 22/1

2019
Champion: Bianca Andreescu @ 14/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Serena Williams @ 5/1

2018
Champion: Naomi Osaka @ 50/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Serena Williams @ 6/1

2017
Champion: Sloane Stephens @ 40/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Madison Keys @ 16/1

2016
Champion: Angelique Kerber @ 10/1
Runner-Up: Karolina Pliskova @ 33/1

2015
Champion: Flavia Pennetta @ 200/1 – first Grand Slam title
Runner-Up: Roberta Vinci @ 500/1

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Watch out for first-timers…

As well as a stack of different names on the trophy, and a tantalising roster of big-odds winners & finalists. Those recent US Open results highlight a trend towards newcomers taking home the late-summer Grand Slam silverware…

• Across the Men’s & Women’s combined, in the last 8 years: 50% of US Open champions have been first-time Grand Slam winners (8 out of 16; 3 men, 5 women)

• Average odds of Men’s first-time Grand Slam winners at the US Open in that period = 6/1

• Average odds of Women’s first-time Grand Slam winners at the US Open in that period = 80/1

Those are some exciting numbers for starters. And I’ve got even more big-odds evidence and opportunities to discuss with you tomorrow…!

Already in the book…

In the ante-post betting, I’ve already shared a free pick with you for the men’s US Open 2023. With Taylor Fritz highlighted at big prices here. And first sent to my Ones to Watch members back in March. The American no.1 ticks the box as a player looking to taste Grand Slam glory for the first time…

• As I write this afternoon, Unibet, Ladbrokes & Coral have Fritz available to back at 66/1 (Each Way: 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

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I’ll be back tomorrow with more US Open stats and prep for you, as we continue our research ahead of next week’s trip to the Big Apple…

P.S
Get onboard now to guarantee your place on next week’s members-only Ones to Watch US OPEN Daily Email Service. The only place to get all my daily picks & advice for the US Open. We had a 40/1 winner at Wimbledon last time out…

Book your place here >>

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch