OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2020
One to Watch name wins big at 50/1...
Monday 10th February 2020
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Ones to Watch 2020 - Kenin wins big...
Grand Slam patterns - Men v Women...
Price Watch - Evidence for a 100/1 shot...
Kenin breaks through...
One of our 10 players to watch in 2020 has started the year with a bang.
Sofia Kenin made the big breakthrough in the very first Grand Slam of the year.
The 21-year-old American won the Australian Open in Melbourne last month. Bringing home odds of 50/1.
In fact, long-time Ones to Watch follower David C emailed in to say he got on Kenin early doors, and grabbed 66/1.
Over on my members-only service, readers in receipt of my Australian Open daily emails had 50/1 Kenin as a day one recommendation.
Along with 22/1 men’s runner-up Dominic Thiem, for an Each Way return.
Landing a couple of large payouts, to make it a successful tournament for our outsider-based approach:
‘Overjoyed to cash up 85 points profit’ - Gabriel
‘Spot on with Kenin and Thiem. As you always say, there will be losers but this is more than compensated with your most insightful reasoning’ - Harry D
‘Thanks for the heads up about Sofia Kenin … giving me my biggest Tennis return ever’ - Eric
‘Many congratulations, Tom. Thanks to your tip I got in at 50-1 for £5 each way and am now £375 richer’ - Stephen S
Were you on Kenin? Let me know - and read comments from other members - here
Want to make sure you’re on our next big tournament pick? Join my full Ones to Watch service with a trial period here
Grand Slam patterns – Men v Women…
After Novak Djokovic beat Dominic Thiem in the men’s Australian Open final, the facts still point to the big names:
The last 13 men’s Grand Slams have now been won by the big three – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
But the ‘Next Gen’ players are getting closer to winning a ‘Slam...
In the last two finals – Thiem at the Australian Open 2020, and Daniil Medvedev at the US Open 2019 – the younger man has pushed the established name (Djokovic and Nadal, respectively) all the way to a fifth & final set.
It’s a whole different story in the women’s…
The women’s Grand Slams have now seen 11 different winners in that same 13-tournament period.
And eight of those have been players lifting a Major trophy for the first time…
The most recent of which being our 2020 youngster, Sofia Kenin.
In the women’s Grand Slams in particular, we’ll continue to be aggressive in our approach to Outright Winner betting: going after appealing outsiders at attractive odds.
It’s not just the women’s Grand Slams that produce big odds winners and ‘surprise’ finalists.
As reported at the end of the last season, the numbers make a strong case for backing players at outsider prices, all year round.
The new 2020 tennis season is going to form in that respect…
So far this year, there have been a total of 13 tournaments across the men’s and women’s tours, along with both incarnations of the Australian Open.
From those 13 tournaments, the Outright Winner prices have included players taking trophies at pre-tournament odds of 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 50/1.
And players finishing runner-up for half-the-odds Each Way payouts at odds of: 20/1, 22/1, 28/1, 40/1, 50/1, 66/1, 80/1 and 100/1.
Overall, 18 of the 26 finalists this season (69%) have been at odds of 10/1+.
That builds on and goes in line with last year’s closing figure of 65%. And 62% the year before.
The message is clear: outsider betting is the way to go.
Evidence for a 100/1 shot…
We’ve already seen a couple of ‘big ones’ this season.
Sofia Kenin was the 50/1 headline maker at the Australian Open.
Corentin Moutet was the biggest price recorded in January, finishing a 100/1 runner-up at ATP Doha.
Those massive prices are no flash in the pan.
They’re not an anomaly.
Last season, there was an average of one 100/1+ shot making a final, every month.
So far in the early stages of the 2020 season, that trend is bang-on the average. With most of February’s tournaments still to come…
Over on my full Ones to Watch service, I’m sticking my neck out this season and aiming to land one of those 100/1 winners.
I’m calling it the 100/1 Challenge…
Sound interesting? Find out more here…
In January, members landed 16/1 and 50/1 winners, and an Each Way payout from a 22/1 shot.
This week’s Ones to Watch picks are up and running and available now, in St Petersburg and New York.
And in the members-only archive on the website, I’ve got ‘our first 100/1 pick of the year’ waiting for you now…
Take the 100/1 Challenge >>
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson