OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2025

Notes from the Tour: The only 18-year-old in the Top 100...

Thursday 13th February 2025

In last week’s free Ones to Watch EXTRA article, we looked at female players maturing and winning big, around the age-28 mark (read it here)...

Today, I’m going to tell you about a player at the other end of the career spectrum. A teenager just starting out on the senior men’s tour - and already making a name for himself…

Last week I also spoke about keeping an eye out for significant quotes. It’s easy to see how the media hype-machine can rev-up around an exciting young sportsperson. But sometimes, a new kid on the block really is the real deal. And if fellow model young pro Carlos Alcaraz says you’re good - himself a big teenage breakout Ones to Watch star. Then we should pay attention…

The player in question? JOAO FONSECA.

Here’s what Alcaraz had to say about the young Brazilian, after Fonseca won his debut Grand Slam match at the Australian Open last month:

“We're going to put Joao Fonseca's name on the list of the best players in the world really soon."

And the teenager sounds like he has his head screwed on, too. Joao’s own comment straight after that headline-grabbing Aussie Open 1st-round win:

“Like Roger said, talent is not enough without hard work.”

The Roger being referred to, of course, is none other than the great Roger Federer. It’s great to hear a young player talk like that. And it’s hard not to get excited about Joao Fonseca’s game: he has a sizzling forehand, already drawing gasps from crowds… bags of speed and energy… and a great attitude.

On the court, Fonseca has made a strong start to 2025. Only his second season since turning professional. He’s won 10 out of 12 matches at all levels so far this year. And is currently in Argentina for the ATP 250-grade event in Buenos Aires. He won his 1st round match in straight sets, and the bookies have him at odds of just 4/1 to go on and lift a first ATP Tour title this weekend…

We’ll get bigger prices for Fonseca in events to come… for example, when next month’s first ATP 1000 Masters events of the year get underway in the States, at Indian Wells and then the Miami Open. And we should also look out for Joao when the Grand Slams come along this spring and summer, too.

At just 18 years of age, Fonseca is the youngest player in the men’s world Top 100 right now (ranked no.99). You have to go right down to no.350 to find a younger man (17-year-old German, Justin Engel).

  • The highest-ranked male teenager overall as it stands is 19-year-old Jakub Mensik (no.45), who appeared as one of the Czech players named in your pre-season Ones to Watch in 2025 Report >>

Along with Mensik and Fonseca, there is currently just one other teenager in the men’s Top 100, and that’s the American 19-year-old, Learner Tien (no.82).

  • There’s only one teenager in the women’s Top 100 right now - and that’s 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva. The Russian appeared in my annual report the year before, when she was just 16: Ones to Watch 2024 >>

Joao Fonseca ended his debut season as a pro with a noteworthy trophy. Winning the ATP Next Gen Finals in December 2024. That tournament was founded in 2017 and specifically designed to showcase young talent in the men’s game…

Previous Next Gen champions include none other than the two-time reigning Wimbledon champion, Carlos Alcaraz (Next Gen champ 2021)... and current world no.1 Jannik Sinner (2019), who has won three of the last four Grand Slams.

It looks like all the signs are there for Joao Fonseca. He also won the US Open Boys’ title in 2023…

There’s no other phrase for it: he’s One to Watch

Joao Fonseca:

Joao Fonseca

P.S

Not a paid-up member yet? To get ALL my big-odds Each Way tennis tournament picks, all season long… book yourself on my members-only Ones to Watch service right here >>

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch