OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2019
One to Watch in Auckland tonight…
Tuesday 8th January 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
As a special New Year bonus for you, I’m sending out all of my members-only advice for the first fortnight of the season to readers of my FREE Ones to Watch Extra newsletter (that’s the email that you’re reading right now). That means YOU get all my emails & bet advice, taking you right up to 13th January.
Here’s the latest email sent to Ones to Watch members today...
The rollercoaster ride…
The very nature of my Ones to Watch picks means we’re always going to back more losers than winners.
At the double-figure, Each Way odds that our selections tend to be at, we’re not going to have a player in a final every week. We’ll be trying though, of course…
The 2019 season is up and running, and the thrills & spills are flowing already…
On Sunday, we had a 14/1 Each Way shot playing in a Men’s final (Daniil Medvedev, ATP Brisbane).
On Monday and this morning, we’ve seen this week’s two 16/1 Women’s picks both go out in the 1st Round. Anastasia Sevastova (WTA Sydney) and Maria Sakkari (WTA Hobart) were both on the wrong end of narrow three-set score-lines.
I’m returning to the ATP action today with a 16/1 pick who plays his first match of the week in Auckland tonight – see below.
Price Watch…
As last season’s numbers emphatically show, backing the double-figures prices in the tennis Outright Winner markets is the way to go. Favourites certainly do not win every time. The first week of the new season was no different…
Here are the full set of winners & finalists from last week’s tournaments:
ATP Pune
Winner: K.Anderson (6/4)
Runner-up: I.Karlovic (50/1)
ATP Doha
Winner: R.Bautista-Agut (33/1)
Runner-up: T.Berdych (66/1)
ATP Brisbane
Winner: K.Nishikori (5/1)
Runner-up: D.Medvedev (14/1)
WTA Brisbane
Winner: Karolina Pliskova (7/1)
Runner-up: L.Tsurenko (66/1)
WTA Auckland
Winner: J.Goerges (11/2)
Runner-up: B.V.Andreescu (100/1)
WTA Shenzhen
Winner: A.Sabalenka (9/2)
Runner-up: A.Riske (40/1)
Some huge prices there, including a 33/1 tournament winner and 50/1, 66/1 (x2) and 100/1 finalists. And remember, each of those runners-up paid out at half the odds for reaching the final, Each Way.
Overall, week one of 2019 saw seven of the 12 finalists at double-figure prices (58%).
We’re looking for another one this week…
One to Watch in Auckland…
As we anticipated in our Sunday preview, the WTA Hobart top seed Caroline Garcia didn’t live up to her role as the tournament favourite, going out in the 1st Round. My pick Maria Sakkari won’t be able to take advantage this time, but another of our Ones to Watch in 2019 youngsters might be able to…
In the bottom half of the Hobart draw, 18-year-old Dayana Yastremska has now been installed as the 13/2 (7.50) tournament favourite. After Yastremska pulled out of her first event of the year last week, I didn’t want to gamble on her fitness by backing her here in Tasmania. She breezed through her 1st Round match though (6-3, 6-1), so it seems all is well… the best value has gone now, but we’ll have plenty of chances to back this exciting young player in the weeks and months ahead.
Over in the Men’s event in New Zealand, however, the price for Marco Cecchinato is still where it was on day one of the tournament…
The Italian is the 3rd seed here and that got him a Bye through to the 2nd Round – and plenty of time to get ready for action after a very good run through to the Doha semi finals last week.
At 26 years of age, Cecchinato is up to a career-high of No.18 in the world, and confidence is at an all-time high after a huge breakthrough run to the French Open semi finals last year. He’s now starting to show a bit of potential on hard courts, too, as recent results in Doha last week and the Shanghai Masters (3rd Round, lost to Novak Djokovic) at the back end of last season show.
This week’s ATP Auckland draw look as open as any the week before a Grand Slam. The big-serving 7/2 (4.50) favourite John Isner is in the top half. Cecchinato is in the bottom half, where fellow Italian, Fabio Fognini is 6/1 (7.00) at best. The ever-erratic Fognini is never one to trust your money with at short prices.
Marco is on the up and last week’s semi final on hard courts could prove to be a significant piece of form that not many seem to have picked up on.
Granted, Cecchinato beat a few fellow ‘clay court players’ in that Doha event (Dusan Lajovic and Guido Pella in particular). But if you’re going down that route, then it’s worth pointing out that there are a few European and South American ‘clay’ players in Auckland this week as potential opponents, including Leonardo Mayer or Matteo Berrettini in this section of the draw.
And on that note – the roll-call of former Auckland champions including plenty of names associated with clay, including four titles for David Ferrer and two for last year’s winner Roberto Bautista-Agut.
Cecchinato starts in Auckland tonight (11pm UK time) as slight 6/5 (2.20) match underdog against our old friend Tennys Sandgren. The American was a 33/1 finalist for us in Houston last year – but playing in the States is an integral part of most Sandgren success (likewise Isner, and also Steve Johnson – who was knocked out in the Auckland 1st Round last night).
Marco looks a good underdog this evening. Let’s grab the biggest price on him by taking the 16/1 or 14/1 Each Way in the Outright betting.
Today’s Ones to Watch pick is:
ATP Auckland – ASB Classic
Outright Winner:
BET: Marco Cecchinato @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 14/1 (15.00) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, William Hill
Latest ATP Auckland odds here >>
Play starts in Auckland at 11pm. Note: bookies will temporarily suspend their Outright/ Tournament Winner markets during the day’s play.
The Australian Open is just days away. The draw is made later this week. I’ll be in touch with more on that soon.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson