OTW Extra Email Archive - June 2021
Expect the 100/1 mayhem to continue this summer...
Monday 21st June 2021
In Ones to Watch EXTRA today:
The last time I wrote to you, we went off-road and took a detour into the women’s golf…
The Korda sisters didn’t land the 18/1 odds at the women’s US Open. But the younger of the two, Nelly Korda, was back to winning ways at the weekend. Lifting the Meijer LPGA Classic, when again priced at 18/1.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: keep the Korda sisters in mind!
And the same goes for Nelly & Jessica’s tennis-playing brother, of course – Sebastian Korda. He’s reached two ATP Tour finals so far this year.
Back to the summer of tennis now…
There are four tournaments on the ATP & WTA tours this week – as well as the Qualifying rounds for Wimbledon. But as I write to you this wet Monday afternoon, there’s not much play going on…
Rain stops play – but things are looking up…
The rain is rolling down my window. ATP & WTA Eastbourne are yet to get on court today. And the covers are also on at the Wimbledon Qualifiers in Roehampton.
In Germany and Spain, there is some action taking place. With WTA Bad Homburg and ATP Mallorca this week’s European contribution to the grass-court campaign.
The week before a Grand Slam is a tricky one at the best of times. With the big names concentrating on next week’s trip to SW19, the smaller-scale ATP & WTA tournaments can be a breeding ground for newcomers and/ or big prices. But with a clutch of player withdrawals, and now the awful weather, too. This week’s competitions might not get much business from me.
This time next week, Wimbledon will be underway. And the weather forecast for 28th June looks much better than this week…
Price Watch: 100/1 record catches the eye…
As we noted at the recent French Open, players are frequently winning Major titles at massive prices. And it’s the same story on the weekly tours…
Here's the 2021 grass-court calendar – and in brackets, the prices of all the finalists on the turf, so far this month:
WTA 250 - Birmingham - Viking Classic
Winner: O.Jabeur (13/2)
Runner-up: D.Kasatkina (8/1)
WTA 500 - Berlin - Bett10 Open
Winner: L.Samsonova (250/1)
Runner-up: B.Bencic (22/1)
ATP 500 - London - Queen's - Cinch Championships
Winner: M.Berrettini (5/1)
Runner-up: C.Norrie (33/1)
14th ATP 500 - Halle - Noventi Open
Winner: U.Humbert (33/1)
Runner-up: A.Rublev (7/1)
ATP 250 - Stuttgart - Mercedes Cup
Winner: M.Cilic (8/1)
Runner-up: F.Auger-Aliassime (7/1)
WTA 250 - Nottingham - Viking Open
Winner: J.Konta (6/1)
Runner-up: Shuai Zhang (33/1)
On that list of champions so far this June, Ons Jabeur and Ludmilla Samsonova have both celebrated maiden WTA titles. The latter at truly gigantic odds, with the 22-year-old Russian, Samsonova coming through the qualifying rounds in Berlin, and going all the way at 250/1.
That triple-figure price contributes to the overall 2021 season-to-date figures that I keep. With that result being the 12th such 100/1+ tournament finalist recorded so far this year:
That 50/1+ number is in line with the five-year average, which I calculated at the end of 2020, showing 31% of tournaments with a 50/1+ finalist.
And the current figure for 100/1+ finalists is nice & high, at 20%. Compared to a 12% average from 2016 – 2020…
Expect the mayhem to continue…
You could argue that those high 100/1+ numbers mean 2021 is due a correction, and the triple-figure mayhem will slow down. But after what we saw at the French Open earlier this month, I’m not so sure…
The women’s Roland Garros final was contested by players at two massive pre-tournament prices:
Winner: B.Krejcikova (175/1)
Runner-up: A.Pavlyuchenkova (150/1)
The last time we saw a real whopper in the Ladies final at Wimbledon was Garbine Muguruza at 80/1. That was back in 2015. Given some of the carnage that’s gone on elsewhere since then, I’d say we’re due the next big-odds surprise down at SW19…
Lots to look forward to, just as soon as the rain stops. I’ll be back later in the week with more, as we get ready for the return of Wimbledon….
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson