WIMBLEDON COUNTDOWN:

Proof that the Big Four are no more…

Wednesday 22nd June 2022

A year is a long time in tennis…

This time last summer, Hubert Hurkacz was 200/1 for Wimbledon. The affable Pole went in the bet-book for my Ones to Watch members, and duly reached the semi finals. The man they call ‘Hubi’ also landed odds of 16/1 to win his Quarter of the men’s draw.

During that breakthrough 2021 run at SW19, Hurkacz beat Daniil Medvedev, who is now the world no.1. And in the quarter finals, Hubi defeated the great man himself, Roger Federer. Little did we know it at the time, but Federer hasn’t played since…

Fast-forward to today, and the men’s tennis landscape looks somewhat different. Medvedev is no.1. A now 40-year-old Federer is making tentative plans for a comeback/ farewell lack of honour next season. While Hurkacz is now a Top 10 player, and priced at just 16/1 for the Wimbledon 2022 men’s title.

• Another example with Hurkacz there of the old mantra ringing true: the early bird gets the worm. Something we discussed earlier this week, with our 40/1 women’s 2022 pick Ons Jabeur in great form this season, and now just 12/1 to win Wimbledon this summer

The Big Four are no more: the rise of the Next Gen…

We looked at the women’s event and the recent history of Grand Slam ‘surprises’ and big-odds finalists yesterday.

Today I’m looking at the men’s Major formbook…

Wimbledon 2022 will be without the still-rehabilitating Federer. The absence of the eight-time winner is one of the key indicators that the decade-plus dominance of the men’s Big Four as we know it has come to an end…

Andy Murray, age 35 and with a metal hip, is still playing. But Andy hasn’t reached a Grand Slam final since Wimbledon 2016.

The other two are still seriously strong contenders, and only a fool would say otherwise. Novak Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slam trophies on offer in 2021. And Rafael Nadal has won both Majors so far in 2022.

But the fact remains, all four of those guys are now age 35 or over. And for the first time in a long time, the top of the men’s rankings doesn’t include any of those Big Four names in the Top 2.

Things get even more intriguing for next week’s big one at Wimbledon when we consider that the two guys that currently occupy the top two spots in the world rankings, won’t be there. As a Russian, Medvedev is banned by Wimbledon. And no.2 Alexander Zverev is out injured.

This combination of factors only stirs up the case for finding an outsider or two to follow at big prices over the next fortnight at SW19…

Upsets happen more than you think…

I’ve gone through all of the odds and results from recent men’s Grand Slam finals.

While it might feel like the Big Four dominate everything (and in terms of actually lifting the trophies, they still pretty much do!). As this list shows, it’s actually rare these days to see an all-Big Four final. And Next Gen names and outsiders are popping up frequently as Each Way finalists, making for some decent runner-up payouts.

Men’s Grand Slam finals since Wimbledon 2016:

Most recent first
NON-Big Four names in bold
(Odds in brackets)

French Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (4/1) beat Casper Ruud (22/1)

Australian Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (7/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (7/5)

US Open 2021
Daniil Medvedev (4/1) beat Novak Djokovic (8/11)

Wimbledon 2021
Novak Djokovic (4/5) beat Matteo Berrettini (12/1)

French Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (5/1) beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (5/1)

Australian Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Daniil Medvedev (9/2)

French Open 2020
Rafael Nadal (11/10) beat Novak Djokovic (21/10)

US Open 2020
Dominic Thiem (9/1) beat Alexander Zverev (25/1)

Wimbledon 2020
[Didn’t play – coronavirus]

Australian Open 2020
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Dominic Thiem (22/1)

US Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (3/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (14/1)

Wimbledon 2019
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Roger Federer (10/3)

French Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (10/11) beat Dominic Thiem (7/1)

Australian Open 2019
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Rafael Nadal (9/1)

US Open 2018
Novak Djokovic (3/1) beat Juan-Martin Del Potro (16/1)

Wimbledon 2018
Novak Djokovic (11/2) beat Kevin Anderson (50/1)

French Open 2018
Rafael Nadal (1/2) beat Dominic Thiem (10/1)

Australian Open 2018
Roger Federer (2/1) beat Marin Cilic (33/1)

US Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (11/4) beat Kevin Anderson (150/1)

Wimbledon 2017
Roger Federer (11/4) beat Marin Cilic (28/1)

French Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (5/6) beat Stan Wawrinka (14/1)

Australian Open 2017
Roger Federer (22/1) beat Rafael Nadal (16/1)

US Open 2016
Stan Wawrinka (25/1) beat Novak Djokovic (Evens)

Wimbledon 2016
Andy Murray (3/1) beat Milos Raonic (14/1)

These findings get me excited for hunting out an underdog at Wimbledon next week:

• Only 4 of the last 23 men’s Grand Slam finals have been all-Big Four encounters. The other 19 have featured a new name/ outsider/ Next Generation player – including 8 at odds of 20/1+

• Only one of the last 5 men’s Wimbledon finals has been an all-Big Four affair. The other 4 have featured finalists at odds of 12/1, 50/1, 28/1, 14/1

Watch this space – DAILY Wimbledon service coming very soon…

If you like the sound of backing big odds like those, then stay tuned…

I’ll be going after the outsider prices at Wimbledon next week.

Over on my members-only Ones to Watch service I’ll be providing a full VIP package, with Outright Winner picks, match bets, and DAILY emails and analysis. Plus, I’ll be contactable by email every day to answer questions and help members out.

The doors will be opening very soon. Watch this space. I’ll be in touch with the details you need to get onboard for my exclusive daily Wimbledon advice.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch